Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Life on an island next to a massive ocean with prevailing westerlies, not really unusual although I concede, we have managed to get an absolute dogs dinner from what was prescribed a few weeks ago.

That's what I mean. I feel indifferent either way as, like you mentioned, it's just standard fare for us each Winter anyway. However, compared to what we saw being modelled several days ago for around the 20th, the ECM is producing some unremarkable stuff for cold/snow (at the moment). 

We'll see what the next frames have to show.

Edited January 16, 2021 by Eskimo

[Weathizard]

UKMO cleaner at 144, ECM looks like it’s phasing the lows with the high further west so don’t think we are in for a change of fortunes on this run unfortunately.

[Tim Bland]

126cm of snow for Scotland..that’s almost as much as we got in East Anglia this morning...probably won’t need an amber warning though ..just gonna need ya big coat ! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

That’s gone wrong now.  Yes, I mean that for UK cold, but also it is not my expected evolution given SSW, lack of westerly drivers, etc.  It went wrong before T96 I think.  

[Daniel*]

The Arctic high is interesting closer to Scandi on this run and as a result the easterlies are bit lower in latitude.

 

[IDO]

d7 on the gfs and ecm:

Variation of the theme that mirrors the means. Expect the usual d6 UKMO backtrack in the morning!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 - total dog’s breakfast

I reckon you see these things in the model outlook, but do you see them when looking through the archive charts of things that have actually happened?  I haven’t seen this in those archives.  Maybe ECM breaking new ground, more likely just wrong!

[Matt H]

JMA 12z also manages to bring in some fairly cold uppers for a time as well. No sustained blocking but I’d happily take this if it meant being able to see some more worthwhile frontal snow at some point. Just looking for the positives.

[Weathizard]

Easterly from Siberia to New York? 

U.K.? South westerlies incoming Couldn’t make it up could you.

 

[topo]

Hmm, ECM seems very close to GFS.

GEM, UKMO and GFS parallel go for another solution..

 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

JMA 12z also manages to bring in some fairly cold uppers for a time as well. No sustained blocking but I’d happily take this if it meant being able to see some more worthwhile frontal snow at some point. Just looking for the positives.

JMA actually looking very promising, T144, T192:

Trust in those models developed by UKMO (inc JMA) for getting the Atlantic right...

[SLEETY]

will ecm verify like this?,blowing up low after low after 96 hours,weird run if you ask me

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Easterly from Siberia to New York? 

U.K.? South westerlies incoming Couldn’t make it up could you.

 

situation normal

 

[chionomaniac]

So, yet again, for the 12Z’s I have refrained from looking past T+144, and in fact I haven’t looked at any models today. So  what do the big three show at day 6 and not knowing what the models show further down the line, what impression do they make. As the ECM is still unfolding I will strat with the GFS.

Looking at the day 6 chart we see another weak Greenland high with a large depression centred to the NE of the UK. A negatively tilted trough looks to be heading across the Atlantic under the block.

The 850 temps at this time suggest cold air circulating around the circular UK low - but no straight Arctic flow here

Whereas it is pretty straightforward to suggest that the Atlantic low heads east, when we look at the jet stream things are more complex

This suggests that the jet stream is on course for a more southerly flow, which suggests that the lows trajectory may be more south than initially thought. So I expect another north/south battleground scenario across the UK - possibly with a snowline from the north of England Northwards. I don’t think that from these charts I can deduce anything further down the line. So a possible battleground scenario then all options are still on the table with the GFS. And I hate sitting on the fence.

We have less info to go on with the UKMO, but the main difference compared to the GFS is a far stronger Greenland high and a more negatively tilted Atlantic trough. It appears that the block is still too north and weak  to prevent the Low crossing the Atlantic in a position where it would leave the UK in a colder airmass, but the split energies of the divergent jet stream do leave optimism that colder scenarios longer term could occur. Everything to play for from this chart.

Uk

Now, I can look at the ECM.

Again we see another large circular depression centred over the UK, with no straight flow northerly, so another cool but not cold. Again we see a stronger Greenland block than the GFS, but this is west based so it is very likely that any low crossing the Atlantic will have a strong milder SW maritime influence to it, for all except the very north. Normally any block in this position mores west further, so I would expect wet  average conditions following this set up.

Now I am posting this I can go and look once again as to what actually the models predict post day 6!

 

 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2021 by chionomaniac

[Daniel*]

There’s not a lot in ECM between wet and white in contrast to GFS. You can imagine a little blocking to our north/northeast and it would be a wintry pattern, the question is will we be able to mange to get any? We have seen this winter for models to underestimate these slight height rises it could make a huge difference.

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

JMA actually looking very promising, T144, T192:

Trust in those models developed by UKMO (inc JMA) for getting the Atlantic right...

Or go all in on the parallel

Might be because hogwarts home schooling is closed for business until Monday morning, but I'm feeling renewed optimism this weekend. 

Can't wait for the pub run to dash my dreams later! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Mon 25th Jan, can it be ignored, 3 models now show it turning crap on that date? hopefully all wrong, hmmm but I do wonder, 3 models wrong big ask even FI

[MJB]

I think you just have to laugh , it is so hard to get a sustained spell of wintry weather in the UK . SSW hasn't really impacted our weather ................at the moment , let's see what the next warming does , maybe as we enter Feb the picture will be different .

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240 - the winter that never was:

But I’m convinced it is wrong, with nothing off the Atlantic, no vortex to drive it, this has to be wrong.  Hope so...

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

I think you just have to laugh , it is so hard to get a sustained spell of wintry weather in the UK . SSW hasn't really impacted our weather ................at the moment , let's see what the next warming does , maybe as we enter Feb the picture will be different .

I think we have to view SSW effects as a bonus. Like with most things regarding UK, we need luck.

The SSW in 2019 delivered nothing for the UK either, so it shouldn’t have come as a big surprise.

[mountain shadow]

Looks like all our SSW delivery eggs are all in the UKMO basket. It's t+144 chart would not go on to produce the dire charts like the GFS and ECM.

If the UKMO is wrong it looks like all the SSW will deliver is a brief chilly Northerly followed by South Westerlies.

 

Edited January 16, 2021 by mountain shadow

[MJB]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

I think we have to view SSW effects as a bonus. Like with most things regarding UK, we need luck.

The SSW in 2019 delivered nothing for the UK either, so it shouldn’t have come as a big surprise.

It's not yet finished with us ,  we can come to a conclusion in April . I personally think we will have a better February but like everyone that's because of hope more than anything else.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

It's not yet finished with us ,  we can come to a conclusion in April . I personally think we will have a better February but like everyone that's because of hope more than anything else.

Maybe, but who wants it in April? I’ll be looking for warmth then!

[sebastiaan1973]

14 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So, yet again, for the 12Z’s I have refrained from looking past T+144, and in fact I haven’t looked at any models today. So  what do the big three show at day 6 and not knowing what the models show further down the line, what impression do they make. As the ECM is still unfolding I will strat with the GFS.

Now I am posting this I can go and look once again as to what actually the models predict post day 6!

 

 

Nice experiment.

[Penicuikblizzard]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

a Tad unsettled in the North east..

Rain at low levels and Snow on high ground unfortunately on that chart