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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS mean has a big uptick in temps past the 24th, a large scatter though

 

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (19).jpeg

Just 3 below at the end yet somewhere like Glasgow would look different I would suggest.

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Phil Blake Aficionado

Phil Blake

Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street
Posted
8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS mean has a big uptick in temps past the 24th, a large scatter though

 

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (19).jpeg

What about further north?

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Our old friend the Russian high appearing in far FI. Perhaps this could back west a little?...getting Deja vu with early Dec

CDF414B6-0E03-4BB5-91C5-AB731287887E.png

There was a hint of this idea taking place during February on the extended GFS control run this morning, obviously JFF though. I don’t know how much more chasing I can do.

482A3A4C-469E-4DA4-A238-8065E423A03E.thumb.png.8eeb96ce613ccbd30516a8003f2c3e88.png5A2D7319-074F-4AC6-A9F7-89BA7A40C557.thumb.png.643ae4903123a9c650b8adcbdf4ef489.png8D358E0B-4124-416E-BC27-05B05CECE0E8.thumb.png.e359ef9571f7b0bfcbc1057db51dd994.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Leeds and Glasgow

 

gfs-leeds-gb-54n-15w.jpeg

gfs-glasgow-gb-56n-45w.jpeg

Certainly classic U.K. winter north south divide, but that’s assuming anyone trusts the GFS and it’s ensembles because I certainly do not, ECM is important tonight hope it follows the UKMO

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saintkip Rising Star

saintkip

Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
Posted
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Certainly classic U.K. winter north south divide, but that’s assuming anyone trusts the GFS and it’s ensembles because I certainly do not, ECM is important tonight hope it follows the UKMO

Looks like a big uptick for the north as well 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

Certainly classic U.K. winter north south divide, but that’s assuming anyone trusts the GFS and it’s ensembles because I certainly do not, ECM is important tonight hope it follows the UKMO

Yes we have seen both the GEFS and EPS, swinging back and forth past day 9. Hard to have much confidence where we go after 144 at the moment.

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Leeds and Glasgow

gfs-glasgow-gb-56n-45w.jpeg

The dividing line between cold and milder air could well be to the north of Glasgow in such a set up. It can also move south and north pretty readily so there's not too much point in getting too invested at this stage. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Vikos said:

No one dares to shout out BOOOOM, yet?

I'm not ready to shout out Boom in my manly voice yet..but I feel my feminine side is coming closer to the surface..

UN144-21.gif

giphy-2.gif

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Anyone hoping for clarity...

Scatter... 

wouldn’t say... negative and predicted to stay negative. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

wouldn’t say... negative and predicted to stay negative. 

I'm hoping for wintry stuff as much as anyone but there's a point of divergence, one branch is trending towards neutral... 

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)

Looking like a poor run so far from ECM, higher heights over Iberia and less ridging into Greenland.

Edit - spoke too soon better at 96 hrs

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T96, with UKMO for comparison:

2B0D4B88-0119-4534-BB86-E7A6D5645235.thumb.png.0dc2c0230a06270712e6105adfe19e1d.png7BA31E86-6523-43B6-9F1C-1CD0ED466467.thumb.gif.d636fb9f31bab92b4951f7a0b821c2c7.gif

I slightly prefer the UKMO at this point, lets see how it goes, but Arctic high a bit stronger on ECM.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Looking like a poor run so far from ECM, higher heights over Iberia and less ridging into Greenland.

Looks similar to parallel and gem at 96

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

We've gone from potential easterly/north easterly to damaging winds. The UK climate ladies and gentleman. 

image.thumb.png.79e32e8f9bdbdf123c65f917817b7832.png
 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Eskimo said:

We've gone from potential easterly/north easterly to damaging winds. The UK climate ladies and gentleman. 

image.thumb.png.79e32e8f9bdbdf123c65f917817b7832.png
 

Must admit I have not been looking at the UK at all here . It is all about the upstream pattern for me.  

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

We've gone from potential easterly/north easterly to damaging winds. The UK climate ladies and gentleman. 

image.thumb.png.79e32e8f9bdbdf123c65f917817b7832.png
 

Ouch

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

We've gone from potential easterly/north easterly to damaging winds. The UK climate ladies and gentleman. 

image.thumb.png.79e32e8f9bdbdf123c65f917817b7832.png
 

Life on an island next to a massive ocean with prevailing westerlies, not really unusual although I concede, we have managed to get an absolute dogs dinner from what was prescribed a few weeks ago.

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Chris Smith Contributor

Chris Smith

Posted
  • Location: Durham, Co Durham
  • Location: Durham, Co Durham
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

a Tad unsettled in the North east..

A7126436-BA92-4E69-BF44-62F3F82C40FE.png

If that's headed down the North Sea, that's going to create some nasty sea surges down the East Coast.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Looks good to me. 

Not if you are in an area which is already saturated....that will lead to a lot of flooding for areas that have already had a battering over the christmas period and beyond.

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T144 compared with UKMO:

A1053704-96AF-4145-A749-67F5F86CBF7E.thumb.png.1304306db3f41887b7ad0b784f2f94b5.pngA40A9EB5-1E96-4B90-85FD-4B8F333C62B8.thumb.gif.edfd98f7c5f487d67f29186a47551ed9.gif

And here those differences start to matter as the ECM will now head down a poor route for UK cold...

I don’t get the propensity for some models to blow this low up, the UKMO doesn’t and it is in the area where the UKMO handles things well.  But to ECM, where is the energy coming from?

Edited by Mike Poole
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