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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.5821e4ced8bf9a44c6ae253bdb8c5152.png

    image.thumb.png.d022b6ed904e52f62b3edb4f3e471552.png

    Could be interesting for parts of the South with the LP's running across the Coast ............................could 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    18 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO at 120 with a little increase of heights around Greenland/Arctic, nothing significant, but may just inch the pattern a little south 

    144 a little more interesting! Not a bad chart that.

     

    UN120-21 (6).gif

    UN144-21 (20).gif

    UKMO Solid! 

    850s 144

    spacer.png

    Keeps the pattern slightly further south on Tuesday/Weds as well with the phasing slightly different, the 0c Isotherm staying south of Manchester.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    UKMO 850s look good, just need the atlantic ridge to hold on!

    UN144-7.thumb.gif.495aa710d24f323c1347ceaa5dafaade.gif

    Edited by icykev
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    This run is a lot better than runs the past 24 hours.

    The pattern is pushed south we stay on the right side of the jet and someone in the country would get snow and a decent amount of it with this set up with areas being up for debate this far out.

    Fits with the metoffice wording for this period.

    It looks an interesting period coming up and one set to test how imby we all are as im sure the boundary between cold and warm will move up and down as we get closer

    Absolutely ...

    Let's keep the upgrades coming...

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Now to my limited to knowledge the PV is in a more favourable position, so what chance we get to benefit from it? Yes FI and just thinking out loud... 

    gfsnh-0-210.png

    gfsnh-1-210.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Everything shifted south again ..making any precip less marginal..

    2A751C85-5BE3-4641-BAC5-169B10A23029.png

    C65008FB-C46C-4AAA-9795-1E84097CC56B.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Ironically you need the upstream pattern to remain flat once you have that long train of shortwave energy up to the eastern seaboard .

    You also need those shortwaves to remain shallow and not deepen as they run east into the UK.

    Conditions remain marginal for snow away from the far north .

    It’s difficult though to sustain the jet to the south of the UK , eventually without some pressure rise especially to the ne it will start lifting further north into the UK .

    And this happens on this run as more amplitude starts appearing upstream .

    Overall it’s a very complex set up and unusual to see that reverse flow all the way from Russia to Canada .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Ironically you need the upstream pattern to remain flat once you have that long train of shortwave energy up to the eastern seaboard .

    You also need those shortwaves to remain shallow and not deepen as they run east into the UK.

    Conditions remain marginal for snow away from the far north .

    It’s difficult though to sustain the jet to the south of the UK , eventually without some pressure rise especially to the ne it will start lifting further north into the UK .

    And this happens on this run as more amplitude starts appearing upstream .

    Overall it’s a very complex set up and unusual to see that reverse flow all the way from Russia to Canada .

     

    Hi Nick, I presume you are talking about the old GFS? Have you seen the latest verification stats for day 10? This is the jet on the more reliable GFSp...

    732A6BB1-2CDC-4C41-9E65-250CFF580229.png

    BEFE1E8F-7C26-4106-AB40-56BA966A1151.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    GEM at 144, while not quite as good as Ukmo in terms of heights it does look broadly similar.

    If the low in the Atlantic can pump some WAA up we could be back in business 

     

     

    gemnh-0-144 (6).png

    UN144-21 (20).gif

    I reckon the UKMO and GEM have this roughly sorted at T144, will be interesting to see if the ECM backs it in an hour or so.  I think the 2 GFS runs are off on one by this point.  We will see.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

    Could someone please explain what is the difference between the GFS run and the GFS parallel run. Thanks in advance. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    Much better output this evening and hope the ECM keeps the trend going. This COULD turn into a very snowy period for parts of the UK and if the pattern can drop a little further south the whole of the UK (including the South) could see some significant snow over the next week to 10 days.

    Edited by Frostbite1980
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Been a few days but got my fix back in FI, chasing the cold dragon 😉 

    gfsnh-0-264.png

    gfsnh-1-264.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    Very interesting NH profile on the GFS(p) 12z at day 10. Hardly a sign of an organised PV setting up so there’s still lots of interest going forward IMO.👍

    B08F6C48-54BE-4479-83AE-EBED82963B6B.png

    Plenty of cold air, especially in the north, if we could just get a low to slide it could deliver 

    F07AD1A8-02E2-48DA-8EAB-9535C70B8479.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Hi Nick, I presume you are talking about the old GFS? Have you seen the latest verification stats for day 10? This is the jet on the more reliable GFSp...

    732A6BB1-2CDC-4C41-9E65-250CFF580229.png

    BEFE1E8F-7C26-4106-AB40-56BA966A1151.jpeg

    Thanks Tim .

    Normally the go to model in here is the one with the coldest outcome ! Lol 

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    I reckon the UKMO and GEM have this roughly sorted at T144, will be interesting to see if the ECM backs it in an hour or so.  I think the 2 GFS runs are off on one by this point.  We will see.  

    Agreed, the gem does get a bit dicey well into FI, but I think the more we can back the pattern south and east before 120, the more chance we have have of returning to a better outcome for coldies.

    gemnh-0-204 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    1 minute ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

    Could someone please explain what is the difference between the GFS run and the GFS parallel run. Thanks in advance. 

    The standard GFS operational run is the current model being used and the parallel run is the upgraded version of the GFS that is initially run alongside the operational run to help iron out any potential issues before it takes over and becomes the main GFS operational run in the future.

    Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    3 minutes ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

    Could someone please explain what is the difference between the GFS run and the GFS parallel run. Thanks in advance. 

    As far as I know the gfsp will replace the current gfs shortly. The gfsp will become the gfs in effect...

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GEM looks like spring is showing it’s hand in southern Europe. All the cold bottles up north again ...

    FDE4ACB0-1A08-480D-A466-82CA761283FD.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Hi Nick, I presume you are talking about the old GFS? Have you seen the latest verification stats for day 10? This is the jet on the more reliable GFSp...

    732A6BB1-2CDC-4C41-9E65-250CFF580229.png

    BEFE1E8F-7C26-4106-AB40-56BA966A1151.jpeg

    The d10 chart verification for the 12z runs and the Parallel not as good here:

    1819790220_cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX(8).thumb.png.3833255b10a98784877517a25f64f2d4.png

    Not that it matters as you can see the trend as we enter early January and the SSWE became interference, the models showing a decline in performance.

    The settling snow, big differences on the gfs compared to gfP:

    anim_fan1.gifanim_yrb9.gif

    Though again the usual suspects in the hunt and most of us south of Birmingham wondering what all the fuss is about? The gfs is an awful run in FI and best forgotten. Unless you are a duck!

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