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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

    Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

    IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

     

    ecm day 10.png

    gfs 10 day.png

    This is what I’ve been trying to tell for ages now. Thank you for your post! 

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
    16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

    Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

    IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

     

    ecm day 10.png

    gfs 10 day.png

    loving your positivity and 'mini' RAMP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    ecm day 10.png

    gfs 10 day.png

    If it wasn't for those heights to the south, the outlook would be pretty good as those lows would be able to track further south bringing more of the UK into potential fun and games!  

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    He actually said RECENT model guidance .

    We are moving in the wrong direction IMO.

    A fairly brief north westerly followed by the euro high pushing the jet north sounds a reasonable shout to me ...

    How I read it is that La Nina teleconnects with milder weather in the second half of the UK winter. Something we already knew and which can be different this year by means of the SSW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    UKMO at 120 with a little increase of heights around Greenland/Arctic, nothing significant, but may just inch the pattern a little south 

    144 a little more interesting! Not a bad chart that.

     

    UN120-21 (6).gif

    UN144-21 (20).gif

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:
    How I read it is that La Nina teleconnects with milder weather in the second half of the UK winter. Something we already knew and which can be different this year by means of the SSW.

    That's correct, nothing new from that tweet from what I can see.  Will just have to see whether the strat will override this signal during late January and February?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Comparing UKMO to yesterday, a clear southwards movement at both timeframes. Nothing crazy different but better than going the other way!

    Today’s 120 vs yday 144

    5B391C68-6F4F-4088-AD88-D3B0871CE3C6.thumb.gif.9e258c3c6acdbf9b677c7cb3ceb2cc2a.gif

    A9F2E7F2-8093-4CBA-ACA6-FCC61B39CF81.thumb.gif.a15ab0de66ec35f55b53c5edafc04f8b.gif

    today’s 96 v yday 120

    88EC755D-C2EC-43CD-AC44-654DFF0AC868.thumb.gif.3ee09e0b41685c1ec82aff1155a8404d.gifA4597899-F021-4CDC-85A3-DDFE92A97D02.thumb.gif.6079e9f8d863f166609b5e0c3aa07d47.gif

    Edited by bradymk
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    UKMO at 120 with a little increase of heights around Greenland/Arctic, nothing significant, but may just inch the pattern a little south 

     

     

    UN120-21 (6).gif

    And if that little LP to the West  can move through the channel .............

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

    A long long way away but the system on both the ukmo and GFS could be bothersome.

    Potential there for high impactful winds and east coast storm surges and if pushed a tad further east to miss the worst of the winds the very low heights could be a snow machine for some.

     

    Screenshot_20210116-160727_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210116-160742_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Edited by Scott Ingham
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    GFS at 144 is quite different.

    gfsnh-0-144 (17).png

    Perhaps it's a matter of timing. I guess UKMO 168H will look more or less the same. The Greeniehigh is under attack by cold air from the east and the low pressure can't deliver good WA. Just my thoughts 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    This is the crucial stage.  We need the western Atlantic low to eject off a small shortwave and keep a southerly track (ideally becoming a channel low) instead of the main low heading east and phasing. 

    We then want the  low that is left in the Atlantic to move north westwards and give waa up the west coast of Greenland. This is the only way to rescue a proper cold spell imo. 

    spacer.png

    Edited by Johnp
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Very low thickness could bring some surprises at the end of the week.. 

    FB545B15-A254-449F-8846-9F4450D0F91F.png

    77657FE2-B050-4982-BF8C-A78988C0C3C9.png

    94BF58C2-C24C-4805-AD9C-C05156077BA4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    What chance have we with model discussion when we can’t agree on a tweets meaning. 🤷‍♂️👀🙈

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    GFSP 150, bigger picture quite a few features, like Pacific / Arctic starting to catch the eye... 

    gfsnh-0-150 (1).png

    gfsnh-1-150.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.f610ef12e08e361bf6bae1841c4a00ff.png

    LP just running into Ireland further South on the 12z 

    image.thumb.png.a92fc9879ee8eb5c6dd8fc3d298a8b1d.png

    And pushes Snow in S Wales

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Early on and considering the high river levels in many parts of the country. We need to watch out for a waving front that will likely be stuck through central parts of the U.K. for a lengthy period starting from Monday.

    Crude estimate from the GFS

    Up to day 5

    image.thumb.gif.88d74d5abaee1f0496915ee196cfd47f.gif
     

    Take with a pinch of salt but the area of highest risk is broadly where the highest totals are (in fairness the 06z generally had 20-30mm).

    Another thing to watch is the movement of cold air westwards from the Arctic that moves across the far north of the U.K. and into the Atlantic. This closes off the Greenland high of the GFS.

    anim_kiy5.gif
     

    The UKMO is slower with this movement and hence allows the Atlantic ridge to sustain itself. In fact that could lead to a far better outcome moving forward.

     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    A touch of Deja vu 

    image.thumb.png.9c12e8f837a9e406f8198724e006fba5.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

    Amazing last run changes for here. 

    Especially gives UKMO and GFSparalel gives us some real hardcore snowstorms. 24 hrs ago rain here in the south seemed certain.

    Fingers crossed!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    UKMO 12z looks fairly good to me at t144 with a stronger ridge to our NW.

    03EB8763-75F7-4663-B5FA-BF9FB5C855A1.gif2A62D1A4-70C6-42F9-9C24-1A3781C528B9.thumb.gif.78cd4d52dea6f60ffcec78b3b4310a25.gif

    I think the UKMO T144 is good.  It doesn’t cut the high off, which has seemed on previous runs to allow it to drift into a poor position, prefer to keep the omega block for the moment to see if we can get the cold air further south, edging so on this run.

    Compare GFS at same time:

    979AF06B-8609-4A5F-B944-1CBB69DFB04C.thumb.png.0b19e8db8ba18fe772fc4f34fb1b6341.png03DF6909-1D0B-4E41-965A-46FF96F27234.thumb.png.8c8366cfe3b5dc17e7260a62592f7a0d.png

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