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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    Just now, BlackburnChris said:

    Starting to wonder if a Plane has caught fire at Liverpool Airport. Now showing 50 deg. Something must be heating it up.. 

    IMG_20210116_135235.jpg

    those dew points lol

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Mjo update. We are in phase 4 now frustratingly! 

    The GEFS and ECM forecast look quite similar now. I have attached yesterday's for comparison.

    280215363_ECMF_phase_51m_full(5).thumb.gif.c726bd7c3298759fbd780dde9efef751.gif

    ensplume_small.gif

    ECMF_phase_51m_full (6).gif

    diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member (7).gif

    The MJO gained a little more amplitude in phase 3 than expected .....but models now showing it headed back into the COD and then potentially appearing in phase 7 although no appetite for any amplitude 

    When the MJO drifts into a phase from the COD and doesn’t move particularly then I always wonder if it actually can be used as a forecast tool. It’s been in phase 3 for about ten days now. What’s the prediction for phase 3 mid la Nina ?  Does it correspond to what we’re currently seeing ?.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Starting to wonder if a Plane has caught fire at Liverpool Airport. Now showing 50 deg. Something must be heating it up.. 

    IMG_20210116_135235.jpg

    They’ve probably parked a jet in front of the weather station and are turning the engines over ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    15 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think that's a sensible way to look at things now.  No big freeze but the chance of some surprise snowfalls cropping up anywhere in the country.  Hopefully we can get some deeper cold and more widespread snow in February, but that is a long way off.

    It was forecast to be in cod by now, by the models but it still isn't, there has been a suggestion that it has been more active than these plots show, hence why we are struggling with a flatter Atlantic profile.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I agree with this, and not a dig at anyone, but it seems that milder options in FI are generally more accepted to verify over colder ones. 

    You could use  climatology statistics to say that there is a 75% chance of a flow from SW, which makes this argument valid, but I would say this is only true in a winter where there hasn't been 2 warmings already by mid January. As BA has pointed out there is signs then flow will reverse in the higher lats, is it inconceivable that we can't get this over our latitude in the next 6 weeks?

    Much to play for still and look for the 2nd warming to further increase Arctic heights in the mid term. judah Cohen is really bullish on this happening. I am also keeping a close on eye on the MJO

     

     Living next to the Atlantic Ocean 75% of the time our weather will be westerly dominated that includes the Winters this is why the milder options far out are more likely to verify than the colder solutions. As for the effects from the Strat let’s just say no more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The MJO gained a little more amplitude in phase 3 than expected .....but models now showing it headed back into the COD and then potentially appearing in phase 7 although no appetite for any amplitude 

    When the MJO drifts into a phase from the COD and doesn’t move particularly then I always wonder if it actually can be used as a forecast tool. It’s been in phase 3 for about ten days now. What’s the prediction for phase 3 mid la Nina ?  Does it correspond to what we’re currently seeing ?.

     

    I'm not that knowledgeable on the subject, but my thinking is phase 3 held back the push of Atlantic heights we needed to help pump up the Greenland ridge and is causing the flatter pattern coming over the next 7 days

    At least with it in cod, it won't have a destructive interference? And if does become a more active feature in the future, we would rather have it floating around phase 6 and 7

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    @bluearmy

     

    any thoughts?

    u.200.total.90.20N-30N.gif

    Conditions for 3.12.2020

    spacer.png

    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    16 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    @bluearmy

     

    any thoughts?

    u.200.total.90.20N-30N.gif

    Conditions for 3.12.2020

    spacer.png


    can you get that for 40/50N ? 

     

     

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    17 minutes ago, snowking said:

    Well not quite the deeper cold we had hoped for at this juncture, but I’m not quite sure why there is the despondency there is in here today.

    As far as I can see the second half of this week brings further opportunity from the N and W initially, then further chances just about anywhere of seeing some snow into next weekend - as always in slider-type scenarios there are bound to be winners and losers, with those further N in the UK probably feeling far more confident than those further S. However in the day 3-6 range I have often found over the years that models tend to underestimate the resilience of cold air and the level of heights across the northern hemisphere as a whole, so as others have mentioned, there is bound to be some further movement of this pattern yet.

    Anyone suggesting that the models have had a decent handle on this situation in the last 10 days have clearly been looking at wildly different ensemble suites to me, and we’re by no means done yet with the swings following the SSW and the subsequent (and still upcoming) further warmings

    The voice of reason.Could not agree more. Many thanks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    13 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2.png

    Interesting to see GFSp just behind ECM again and beating GEM as well. Can’t remember who it was that was lambasting it after 1 set of poor results.. overall it’s performing well 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
    34 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    I still have excitement regarding the gradual impact of the ssw...it takes time, there’s a lag effect, it doesn’t just suddenly happen!...but I’m still excited!...anyway, according to the GEFS / ECM mean ...for sure it WILL become much colder again later next week from the north following a less cold or dare I say..milder blip?...and I’m thinking southerly tracking jet? with fronts bumping into in situ cold pool over the u k leading to snow events..well, that’s my hope at least!...strap yourselves in for the type of 🎢 ride we haven’t had in recent pathetic winters..fingers crossed 😜🤞 🥶 ❄️ ️ 

    87FC9FA7-28C6-49CE-AB64-1DB95AC919D8.thumb.png.d7c9ce6558cf832ea0d495e5a7660374.pngACC4EA1C-46B8-428B-A1F5-B5AF59D67B9E.thumb.gif.886b958ad7c03c3f62f7d51dae7309d2.gif

    I don't know, the "ride" of disappointment never seems to end here 😄

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The MJO gained a little more amplitude in phase 3 than expected .....but models now showing it headed back into the COD and then potentially appearing in phase 7 although no appetite for any amplitude 

    When the MJO drifts into a phase from the COD and doesn’t move particularly then I always wonder if it actually can be used as a forecast tool. It’s been in phase 3 for about ten days now. What’s the prediction for phase 3 mid la Nina ?  Does it correspond to what we’re currently seeing ?.

     

    Here’s the La Niña phase 3 January 0D64AACD-489F-4E7D-9000-A6EC8453DE92.thumb.png.429fd15db54ff2b21b0ec7f3dcd88d63.png and the others 9D729996-8A88-40C3-B061-661BD32C9B6F.thumb.jpeg.cceceda2f3da9ef2e3b2eae9b27071b2.jpeg7AD5A349-F76B-472D-82A6-C0906EDC4CC4.thumb.gif.00da23f4c2284e075278ef2ca10eda9a.gif looking at the data on the bom site it has been phase 3 since 30th December then into amplitude 1 of phase 3 since 5th Jan which is this C1E73281-2658-429A-A238-89905C954C7D.thumb.gif.97aa87dfd7930abc150be23a38893f19.gif not too far off the current modelling though as I mentioned before some are trying to get pacific ridges going not sure whether that’s linked to MJO 🧐

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    Don't be too despondent - one ecmwf ensemble member gives this for next weekend 🙃

    (via @catinsight on Twitter)

     

    C96561F2-2C3E-4C1D-A510-E1E47E05A004.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Exeter remain bullish for wintry hazards in the North over the coming weeks...

    Does look a bit grim for the south admittedly ...

    Quite where the dividing line is who knows!!

    While Exeter keep the faith so shall I...

    Hoping for 12z upgrades ...

    I will cling to the hope I am near the boundary and the fantastic M4 comes in to play 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    1 hour ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Starting to wonder if a Plane has caught fire at Liverpool Airport. Now showing 50 deg. Something must be heating it up.. 

    IMG_20210116_135235.jpg

    I can receive the atis from here and it was going crazy with information codes missing.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Interesting to see GFSp just behind ECM again and beating GEM as well. Can’t remember who it was that was lambasting it after 1 set of poor results.. overall it’s performing well 

    Opinion on which model is favoured seems to vary depending on time of day and day of the week. 

    Also had gem dismissed out right earlier because someone didn't favour its boom charts in FI, whilst GFS was preferred 😜 

    Not much to add really other than all we ever can do is follow the models, good or bad. 

    Looking forward, let's see what agreement is on offer beyond 144.

    I'm anticipating some disagreement! 

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    Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
    5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

    Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

    IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

     

    ecm day 10.png

    gfs 10 day.png

    Think you answered your own question about the despondency when you mentioned day 10. Unfortunately it’s always interesting at day 10.

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    They’ve probably parked a jet in front of the weather station and are turning the engines over ! 

    Which is why airport data shouldn’t form part of records, not without caveats anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    MJO

    The CA actually forecast it quite well a few days back So we can only assume its on to something.

    Most now go from yesterdays placing ( The point that CA was best forecasting) to Cod, but CA wants to quickly move towards phase 7

    If nothing else it shows us the volatility in the models just in regards to MJO.

     

    ECMF_phase_51m_full-3.gif

    ensplume_full-3.gif

    statphase_full-2.gif

    statphase_full.gif

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