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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    23 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Big three for next Friday, cold air being drawn down from the north, you'd think there would be snow snow showers into Northern island and Scotland with some snow also in England. This sets up the cold airmass over the entire UK. No Beast from the East but cold.

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    Snowfall chances begin Thursday, and on Into the weekend, any Atlantic systems trying to push in would give the risk of frontal boundary snowfall on the northern side.

    (GFS ppn charts, just to give an idea, not to be taken literally)

    Thursday

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    Friday

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    Saturday

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    Long way off still but I have next weekend in the diary for a snowfall "event" in the heart of the uk.

    GEM ...JFF

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    I would bank that! I do think we’ll see a cold north westerly later next week, with wintry showers for northern and western areas. Then potential ‘battleground’ snow events as low pressure systems cross the U.K. but with uncertainty over their track. The Met Office outlook looks pretty spot on.

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    Just now, WhiteXmas said:

    For some reason my post was removed...weird. Anyways, the models looking good for Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

    Nip down to Liverpool, the SSW causing a heatwave.. 

    IMG_20210116_131901.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    He’s stated that the projected weak to moderate La Niña conditions favour a milder second half to winter, which has been the case all along but there are other factors that can override that. Doesn’t mean a milder second half of winter is predicted.

    He actually said RECENT model guidance .

    We are moving in the wrong direction IMO.

    A fairly brief north westerly followed by the euro high pushing the jet north sounds a reasonable shout to me ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    3 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Nip down to Liverpool, the SSW causing a heatwave.. 

    IMG_20210116_131901.jpg

    Looks like the ssw down welled right onto Liverpool airport quite a localised one lol 😆 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    He actually said RECENT model guidance .

    We are moving in the wrong direction IMO.

    A fairly brief north westerly followed by the euro high pushing the jet north sounds a reasonable shout to me ...

    He said the latest model guidance maintains a weak to moderate La Niña and that that teleconnection favours a milder second half to winter. That’s not the same as the models predicting a second half to winter. 

    Edited by MattStoke
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Marco Petanga now suggesting model guidance is pointing to a milder second half of winter.

    Hope its more accurate then then the METS seasonal forecast for winter has been then.

    Were they not going for a mild winter for the whole of DJF with low pressure to the North over the Arctic and Azores high over the South..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    13 minutes ago, WhiteXmas said:

    For some reason my post was removed...weird. Anyways, the models looking good for Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

    Maybe some more substance other that 'its looking good for Scotland' will help things move along better. Could you explain what is good and why & what models are showing the goodness?

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    He said the latest model guidance maintains a weak to moderate La Niña and that that teleconnection favours a milder second half to winter. That’s not the same as the models predicting a second half to winter. 

    Well let's agree to disagree ...

    The trend looks clear to me , hopefully the trend is wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

    Horribe terrible mean at 240 hours and after!!!we are in a westerly flow across the uk and pure boredom!!!!!wake me up when something interesting turns up😴!!!

    Unfortunately mate, that could be an unknown amount of time. We live in one of the most boring climates in the world for all of the more interesting types of weather. 

    51 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    See you in April then

    Summer is the weather equivalent of being asked to clean the entire of the great wall of China with a toothbrush. An agonising slow chore.

    It's no surprise that there's rarely over a page of Model discussion each day for 3/4 months of the year. Traffic is down 95%. 

    We can live in hope though. I certainly wouldn't mind a 4/6 Thunderstorm each afternoon/evening for 6 months.

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    14 minutes ago, WhiteXmas said:

    For some reason my post was removed...weird. Anyways, the models looking good for Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 

    Scotland always gets snow 🤣 think about us poor sods in the southwest 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, kev238 said:

    I think a realistic expectation is more of what we have seen this month . Cool to cold Generally with snow potential - probably in much the same places that have done well in recent weeks. The models neatly match the long range Met Office forecasts which have never talked of deep cold from the east but the chance of battleground events and wintery hazards 

    I think that's a sensible way to look at things now.  No big freeze but the chance of some surprise snowfalls cropping up anywhere in the country.  Hopefully we can get some deeper cold and more widespread snow in February, but that is a long way off.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    Unfortunately mate, that could be an unknown amount of time. We live in one of the most boring climates in the world for all of the more interesting types of weather. 

    Summer is the weather equivalent of being asked to clean the entire of the great wall of China with a toothbrush. An agonising slow chore.

    It's no surprise that there's rarely over a page of Model discussion each day for 3/4 months of the year. Traffic is down 95%. 

    We can live in hope though. I certainly wouldn't mind a 4/6 Thunderstorm each afternoon/evening for 6 months.

    never get decent storms anymore,to go along with cold weather,still think we havent seen the coldest part of this winter,wouldnt take much shift for much colder weather then is currently shown for later next week to happen,more enncouraged it will happen in Feb,now that Met going for milder in FEB  lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Marco Petanga now suggesting model guidance is pointing to a milder second half of winter.

    If the models can’t agree on T+96 why on earth would anyone take any notice of long term forecasts. Just as well throw bones in the air or read tea leaves. Mystic Meg would probably do better 🙂

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    11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Hope its more accurate then then the METS seasonal forecast for winter has been then.

    Were they not going for a mild winter for the whole of DJF with low pressure to the North over the Arctic and Azores high over the South..

     

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    What is the source for all 3 months being milder than average please?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    Just now, apophenia said:

    What is the source for all 3 months being milder than average please?

    the met office Glosea seasonal model forecast for DJF was for mild throughout

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Notty said:

    If the models can’t agree on T+96 why on earth would anyone take any notice of long term forecasts. Just as well throw bones in the air or read tea leaves. Mystic Meg would probably do better 🙂

    I don't necessarily disagree...

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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street

    The thing with seasonal models is they won't show the week to week variance. 1 week could be brutal cold and the next 3 weeks very mild and the month would show as mild overall 🤷🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Maybe it raises some hopes. CFS was by now very conservative with Highs to the nord, but it seems they did a smal turnaround.

    Don't loose the faith in cold. Nothing is lost and we have still plenty of time ahead. 🙂

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    Edited by Vikos
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Mjo update. We are in phase 4 now frustratingly! 

    The GEFS and ECM forecast look quite similar now. I have attached yesterday's for comparison.

    280215363_ECMF_phase_51m_full(5).thumb.gif.c726bd7c3298759fbd780dde9efef751.gif

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    ECMF_phase_51m_full (6).gif

    diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member (7).gif

    Please correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't these forecasting the MJO to go into a more favorable phase a few days ago?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Mjo update. We are in phase 4 now frustratingly! 

    The GEFS and ECM forecast look quite similar now. I have attached yesterday's for comparison.

    280215363_ECMF_phase_51m_full(5).thumb.gif.c726bd7c3298759fbd780dde9efef751.gif

    ensplume_small.gif

    ECMF_phase_51m_full (6).gif

    diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member (7).gif

    Mjo has been useless in the way of help since November really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

    Starting to wonder if a Plane has caught fire at Liverpool Airport. Now showing 50 deg. Something must be heating it up.. 

    IMG_20210116_135235.jpg

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