Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[MJB]

A lot of reactions to a run that hasn't finished , wait for the ENS to see just where it sit's and how much support it has 

[mountain shadow]

Para is a little better 

[Weathizard]

The Azores high isn’t really the issue here, it’s just a result of slow rounded LP system pumping up heights to our south, unfortunately winters in the U.K. now seem to be dominated by slow moving lows phasing across the Atlantic, it’s very hard to keep cold air nearby to tap into with this type of setup.

I’m not sure what positives there are to take this morning to be honest, both GFS and ECM are a long way from what we thought at day 7

[mountain shadow]

Day 10 GFS Para looks good

[IDO]

Thankfully we only have to be despondent with the next 10-days as post that the gefs are varied and tbh anything is on the table. Just a case to see if we can get any trends to see whether the pattern can amplify and maybe reboot to get cold to our sector?

The 06z is bringing in the SW'ly flow that the Met referred to as a higher possibility according to some research:

Would be interested to see that paper.

[mountain shadow]

BOOOOM Chart from the Para. Mother load incoming..

[Weathizard]

If anything the small wedge currently projected over greenland makes the situation worse for us in this setup, a couple of times this winter the models have been very keen on a proper GH only to be gradually downgraded to near nothing.

[Ninman]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The Azores high isn’t really the issue here, it’s just a result of slow rounded LP system pumping up heights to our south, unfortunately winters in the U.K. now seem to be dominated by slow moving lows phasing across the Atlantic, it’s very hard to keep cold air nearby to tap into with this type of setup.

I’m not sure what positives there are to take this morning to be honest, both GFS and ECM are a long way from what we thought at day 7

It is at 300h - This isn't a good look. But as we all know, we would get better accuracy at this range by having a child draw it

[Methuselah]

Could it finally be that, after endless days' cold rain and sleet (and with temps stuck mercilessly between 2 and 5C!) redemption might be at hand? I dunno... in this the 'nowt is ever nailed-on winter', who does know?

    

Edited January 14, 2021 by General Cluster

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

BOOOOM Chart from the Para. Mother load incoming..

Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks! The latest verification:

It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling. 

Great for morale but no one should be taking the Para seriously!

Edited January 14, 2021 by IDO

[johnholmes]

In spite of the fairly solid pattern of meridional flow the 500 mb charts show, I posted earlier this link to the ECMWF output does not

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

So which will be nearer the actual weather pattern in 6+ days time?

I have to say I do not know. I cannot recall seeing the anomaly charts so consistently showing a meridional flow without the weather following what they suggest. The ECMWF output is something that has only recently become available, so I have no idea how reliable it is. I do have to say though that I am beginning to wonder if it is not doing better, at the moment, than the anomaly charts?

See for yourselves, the anomaly charts were posted earlier but I'll drop them in here for an easier comparison

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

The 8-14 NOAA carries on with the meridional flow and it shows a pattern in the far west that one would expect to support the pattern in the UK area.

 

[Tim Bland]

Models really all over the shop, the only certainty is uncertainty! Wouldn’t want to make a longe range forecast right now! This is the type of situation where it could be wet in one place and snow 10 miles up the road and disruptive snow can pop at short notice. Putting today and Sat to one side , we then look to situations like this from the GEM in 6 days time...

And as IDO has shown above ..GEM is outperforming old and new GFs still..

Edited January 14, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Waterspout]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks!

It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling. 

Great for morals but no one should be taking the Para seriously!

Due to become the Operational February 3rd.

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Ninman said:

It is at 300h - This isn't a good look. But as we all know, we would get better accuracy at this range by having a child draw it

The new improved PARA significantly different at the same timeframe..

[IDO]

Just now, Waterspout said:

Due to become the Operational February 3rd.

That will not happen...

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks! The latest verification:

It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling. 

Great for morale but no one should be taking the Para seriously!

I know, Just trying to lift spirits in troubled times!

[Tim Bland]

Just now, IDO said:

That will not happen...

I wouldn’t bet in on it. This is the first set of stats in a Long time where it hasn't outperformed the old one. They will look at stats over the whole period not just the last week. 

[Battleground Snow]

@IDO really does not like the para

As others have said it's better verifying at 120, which is more important.

This theme keeps repeating which I have crudely marked up... Pacific and Arctic high forcing the Asian vortex towards Scandinavia.

I think it keeps getting pushed back because of the MJO interference... Maybe it will finally relent at the end of January and then head into more favourable phases for us. It's more delay for coldies though in the meantime.

[topo]

Is there an explanation why ECM, GFS, and GFS op are warmer than their ensembles for Scandi for next week? At least for the last 2-3 runs the patterns is the same and seems a bit weird.

 

[Waterspout]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

That will not happen...

You might find this useful for some background of the testing since Autumn 2018! It’s also full of fascinating technical info!
 

https://ufscommunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/UFS_Webnair_GFSv16_20201022_FanglinYang.pdf

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t bet in on it. This is the first set of stats in a Long time where it hasn't outperformed the old one. They will look at stats over the whole period not just the last week. 

I expect that in the next week you will see far more of those poor daily verification stats and that is a sign that there is something seriously amiss. They may be working this out now to rectify by Feb or work on it concurrently with its release, but those running the Para cannot accept or allow a model to fail like it has, even if only a couple of times. I have never seen a 0.1 ever!

As an aside, the gfs op is bad for cold and snow for many from start to finish and hopefully an aberration! 

d16: 

[Yarmy]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

Although I would love to see that, the Para is not fit for consumption and I cannot see this coming on line as it would be a joke. We have been seeing those para boom charts for weeks! The latest verification:

It only beats the cfs and has some atrocious runs, a 0.1 and a 0.28. These are the sign of a failed model that needs some reprogramming. The current gfs is no world-beater but does not drop below 0.4 on any of the sampling. 

Great for morale but no one should be taking the Para seriously!

 

I've been watching the para stats for a while. These are my observations, so far:

1. It is consistently beating the old GFS up to day 6.

2. It is matching (and sometimes beating) the UKMO and GEM up to day 6.

3. It falls off a cliff after that. As you point out, it's dreadful past day 8.

4. It's still miles behind the ECM.

As can be seen, it currently second to the ECM at T144.

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

As an aside, the gfs op is bad for cold and snow for many from start to finish and hopefully an aberration! 

d16: 

It’s probably worst cases scenario but it’s not actually that bad. Jet is tuning south of us and cold is spiking from the north at times. With lows stretched and sliding like this there will snow in their northern edge 

[IDO]

Looking at the d9 gefs:

 mean>

The main cluster follows the op and the control with the Greenland wedge. Small clusters have weak Atlantic wedging ridge, or a stronger Atlantic ridge but these are trending the wrong way as the mean highlights.

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by IDO

[pureasthedriven]

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

I expect that in the next week you will see far more of those poor daily verification stats and that is a sign that there is something seriously amiss. They may be working this out now to rectify by Feb or work on it concurrently with its release, but those running the Para cannot accept or allow a model to fail like it has, even if only a couple of times. I have never seen a 0.1 ever!

As an aside, the gfs op is bad for cold and snow for many from start to finish and hopefully an aberration! 

d16: 

And a soaking wet aberration at that...