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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    I think a realistic expectation is more of what we have seen this month . Cool to cold Generally with snow potential - probably in much the same places that have done well in recent weeks. The models neatly match the long range Met Office forecasts which have never talked of deep cold from the east but the chance of battleground events and wintery hazards 

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Ok let's keep discussion polite and on topic, some posts have had to go. Please report any posts that you see don't belong in here, don't reply to them. Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    21 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    I tend not to bother with GEM, when some models are producing nice charts you will usually find the GEM churning out BOOM charts that never come to fruition. 

    For me I just use big 3, then when there all in agreement for something good, I look at JMA and GEM just for some eye candy cos you know they will be showing the real good stuff haha.

    Interesting that GEM has regularly verified 2nd ahead of UKMO/GFS in recent weeks, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Most models now have that low next weekend. Who / where gets the snow should keep us busy for the next week..

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    47A085FC-CBC0-4E3B-97E2-4D3B13E69D95.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Interesting that GEM has regularly verified 2nd ahead of UKMO/GFS in recent weeks, though.

    I think GEM slightly overdoes snow when you look at the precip type and compare it against the uppers / DP it is showing. It verifies above a lot of other models for the over all Synoptics though 

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Most models now have that low next weekend. Who / where gets the snow should keep us busy for the next week..

    21F500B7-875C-4F86-AB9C-48CAAC314F19.png

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    68E30747-0CCF-4834-B3BE-E260CCDAB528.png

    47A085FC-CBC0-4E3B-97E2-4D3B13E69D95.png

    The thing to watch for is whether these lows phase with the main low before reaching the UK (milder), or whether they stay detached and move underneath (localised snow event somewhere). Not clear which it will be yet, but could be the latter.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think GEM slightly overdoes snow when you look at the precip type and compare it against the uppers / DP it is showing. It verifies above a lot of other models for the over all Synoptics though 

    Agreed!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Most models now have that low next weekend. Who / where gets the snow should keep us busy for the next week..

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    68E30747-0CCF-4834-B3BE-E260CCDAB528.png

    47A085FC-CBC0-4E3B-97E2-4D3B13E69D95.png

    Often get's corrected Southwards and barely reaches the South Coast. Obviously still a week away so may not even be there by then. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The 06z highlighting the slight variance with phasing for around d6 and we get the low disrupting more than the 0z meaning we get the milder uppers in the UK 36-48h quicker than the 0z (by d8 -v- d10):

    0z>gfseu-1-228.thumb.png.87d3b5a244fbc12146e214797f5fb3fa.png 06z>gfseu-1-222.thumb.png.81bbb27cad0b90208fe465c9b753f344.png

    Either one or somewhere in between are plausible.

    Just watch d8-d10 and we can see the net results of the easterly flow through the north:

    d8-10>anim_ywz8.gif

    The pattern grinds to a halt as the block puts our region in a holding pattern. The music stopped and we are left in a poor scenario for cold.

    We still need plenty of runs to see how post-d10 develops based on the 0z gefs.

    Edited by IDO
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    It’s a slightly odd one really. With the SSW we would normally expect to see volatility but actually the models gave been pretty resolute over recent days both in terms of the pattern and even in terms of the fact that we look like largely missing out again. The models have been persistent with the bump of heights in and around Iberia and they are not really budging. 

    I think this ones slipping away from us tbh not that it was ever convincingly modeled otherwise. The big story over the next two weeks is going to be rain imho as the set up looks ripe for frequent runners along the base of the lows sat to our north. Could see some really big rainfall totals. Maybe some transient snow in places but it’s more about rainfall totals sadly. 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I think GEM slightly overdoes snow when you look at the precip type and compare it against the uppers / DP it is showing. It verifies above a lot of other models for the over all Synoptics though 

    Obviously looking at precipitation charts after a few days out would be just for fun right? 

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    3 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

    I do like the ECM at 240 not for the actual surface conditions although it would be interesting in Scotland but for the reverse wind flow easterly to our north which could so easily shift south.

    Look at this chart for late December 1978, looks so much like the ECM (although ECM 240 looks more favourable) yet 3 days after that December 78 chart southern Britain was swept by a severe blizzard.

    Just saying.....

    Andy
     

     

    0FC30265-B5A5-4CA1-B1AB-66629969528D.jpeg

    907CC56C-148D-4E5F-8028-C9C34ABBDF0D.jpeg

    It would be good if it was to happen, unfortunately the trend has been over the last few days has been to lift the pattern further north and away from us. However you would think that if pressure could rise to our north in some way (perhaps the Artic high could allign better with the GL ridge) and shunt the whole patter south, then we would be in a great position to benefit as per your 1978 chart.

    Edited by Cavehill Snow
    added additional wording
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    It would be good if it was to happen, unfortunately the trend has been over the last few days has been to lift the pattern further north and away from us. However you would think that if pressure could rise to our north in some way (perhaps the Artic high could allign better with the GL ridge), then we would be in a great position to benefit as per your 1978 chart.

    Yup.

    We need a push south of the pattern.

    Certainly the further North one heads the colder weather last longer.

    All that said,unless we do see a switch south pretty sharpish one would suspect the wintry updates from Exeter will change to something much more short lived ..

    One can't deny the trend to push the jet too far north early next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looking at d12 of the op and there are no redeeming factors there so I would tend to think that we are now looking towards February to get a more amplified pattern:

    976247264_gfsnh-0-288(1).thumb.png.d7a7b1aa082f7288ad73303d89eb95f7.png

    Wedges are all well and good, better than nothing, but by nature are transient, so from an IMBY perspective they have been unhelpful this winter (again missed the snow this morning; total snow=0)! 

    This is of course IMHO but currently the trend is not good.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

    Mixed output for me but as others said, the rainfall amounts look more concerning in the short to medium term and then potentially how windy it becomes with the models predicting a deep low. If that deep low goes far out into the north sea then I suspect more cold air will filter into the UK and if it sets up perfectly  we could see upper air temps of around -8 heading into northern areas eventually. If it stays too close it's going to be harder for much colder air to come into play.

    So whilst no big freeze on the way, some interest at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    18 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    Often get's corrected Southwards and barely reaches the South Coast. Obviously still a week away so may not even be there by then. 

    Been lurking here for years and lost count of the number of times things get ‘corrected southwards’ - seems to be far more often than not. Why is that? And why haven’t the models been corrected themselves so it doesn’t happen? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    11 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Looking at d12 of the op and there are no redeeming factors there so I would tend to think that we are now looking towards February to get a more amplified pattern:

    976247264_gfsnh-0-288(1).thumb.png.d7a7b1aa082f7288ad73303d89eb95f7.png

    Wedges are all well and good, better than nothing, but by nature are transient, so from an IMBY perspective they have been unhelpful this winter (again missed the snow this morning; total snow=0)! 

    This is of course IMHO but currently the trend is not good.

    Then it will be March!

    Looking like January may be another addition to the case studies of months which don’t live up to the hype.

    Sadly, the slider lows being modelled are not running into air that is cold enough.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    l9d7v7wp.png

    First hint of easterly flows in trop at our latitude? See those -20is, they "dropped" down...

    1374-c-Wine-World-1374-world-map-with-la

    That's the reversal we need. I think. ssw outcome. see strat thread why I think that this is about to happen as EC is very good in prognosis of Strat effects.

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that the downwelling reversal is staying at too high a latitude on average but then again, it’s not easy for a global chart to show ‘loacal’ detail at such a low latitude. Obviously the closer you get towards the pole, the easier it is for the global zonal flow to show a strongly negative return 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    12 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    l9d7v7wp.png

    First hint of easterly flows in trop at our latitude? See those -20is, they "dropped" down...

    1374-c-Wine-World-1374-world-map-with-la

    That's the reversal we need. I think. ssw outcome. see strat thread why I think that this is about to happen as EC is very good in prognosis of Strat effects.

    Much appreciated, especially the eye test at the end 😉 

    Regarding strat effects being an ongoing process, I'd almost suggest taking a step away for a few days, otherwise you'll find yourself repeating yourself over and over here. 

    We seem to be in a discussion loop. 

    FYI I share your pov, just not sure others with an opposing view are listening or receptive to consider the possibility. But that's OK. 

    👍 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    When the eps only churns out one cluster, the nwp is likely pretty unreliable (either too many varied options or other many nuances around a central theme). We remain in pretty solid neg AO/NAO territory 

    if this downwelling wave does fail to bring proper winter south of the Scots then there will be another one along for the end of the month and into feb. 

    the gfs ops are being quite chaotic with their movement of the spv later week 2

    Yes, agree, I did say in previous posts that post-d10 needs time to evolve as the gefs are not signposting specifics!

    Saying that, I am not optimistic the Atlantic sector will improve enough before the end of Jan.

    I would also say that the development of the Pacific amplification is probably not great for the UK at this juncture for obvious reasons:

    953709832_gfsnh-0-342(1).thumb.png.00e713e1f620ef68bd544cf7d8d0915c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    GSF 6z Short ensembles .

    Next cold shot likely to be 23rd / 24th. ( ECM 0z ensembles indicated that timeframe too earlier with -6.5 mean uppers in a Northwesterly flow )

    Im not looking much beyond that at the moment.

    23b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    I think it’s been pretty clear for a while that the downwelling reversal is staying at too high a latitude on average but then again, it’s not easy for a global chart to show ‘loacal’ detail at such a low latitude. Obviously the closer you get towards the pole, the easier it is for the global zonal flow to show a strongly negative return 

    Thanks for your answer.

    I will say, that once the easterly flow is developed, with that snow and ice coverage to the east and a rather neg AO/NAO (westerlies will have to fight hard against cold ground air masses and flows), it will just strengthen up. So while I am not living at the pole, I am very happy with this signal (snow in garden tralala), and as I mentioned in strat thread, EC Outputs are quite reliable on that timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    Is there any chance of high pressure setting up over Scandinavia put us in a proper freezer I say this because have seen 0 snow this winter 

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