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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
    1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

    Sounds about right to me. Outlook is looking pretty poor on the whole barring some transient snow events. Certainly not very exciting in my view anyway.

    nomality returns to these shores.

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Aha, so it seems, they can handle it?

    14th 00z vs 16th 00z for 24-1-21

    ezgif-3-31fdf9e3b2e4.gif

     

    Now 25th in comparission today 00z / yesterdays 00z

    ezgif-3-ee8eec9dddfc.gif

     

    Or lets do it with a 10 days prognosis of 850is for today

    6th Jan +10 days

    ezgif-3-fdaac3d35375.gif

     

    I hope you get my point...

    Think you need to repost your images my friend. Either that, or it is so complicated the models have given up. 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    we have reverse zonality just to our north and this is likely an effect of the SSW.

    Can you name the layer? Ok, 10hpa, thats upper Strat.

    In 150hpa I can't find the reversal (yet). Note: 150hpa is lowest Strat, more like Tropopause, 11.000meters hight

    ecmwf150a12.png  ecmwf150f240.png

    Nor in 100hpa

    ecmwf100a12.pngecmwf100f240.png

     

    This is the strongest reversal I found in 30hpa, impressing -0.8m/s

    ecmwf30f144.pngbut will turn positive in 10d forcast ecmwf30f240.png

     

    What I want to say, that a reversal "downstairs" hasn't yet happend ( or I am just to blind to see it in the charts)

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    Posted
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
  • Location: Farnborough, Hampshire
    2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

    I do like the ECM at 240 not for the actual surface conditions although it would be interesting in Scotland but for the reverse wind flow easterly to our north which could so easily shift south.

    Look at this chart for late December 1978, looks so much like the ECM (although ECM 240 looks more favourable) yet 3 days after that December 78 chart southern Britain was swept by a severe blizzard.

    Just saying.....

    Andy
     

     

    0FC30265-B5A5-4CA1-B1AB-66629969528D.jpeg

    907CC56C-148D-4E5F-8028-C9C34ABBDF0D.jpeg

    Those 2 charts are far from similar. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    Looking towards 23rd / 24th for our next snow opportunity and the mean uppers have improved quite a a bit.

    spacer.png ECM 0Z Op @ 168 hrs

    The Op for Sat 23rd looks good. Just need a shift South so that we are all in the game.

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    14 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Think you need to repost your images my friend. Either that, or it is so complicated the models have given up. 

    Thanks. Updated it, so press STRG+F5 for full reload of the site, then they should show.

    Sorry.... 😕

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Can you name the layer? Ok, 10hpa, thats upper Strat.

    In 150hpa I can't find the reversal (yet). Note: 150hpa is lowest Strat, more like Tropopause, 11.000meters hight

    ecmwf150a12.png  ecmwf150f240.png

    Nor in 100hpa

    ecmwf100a12.pngecmwf100f240.png

     

    This is the strongest reversal I found in 30hpa, impressing -0.8m/s

    ecmwf30f144.pngbut will turn positive in 10d forcast ecmwf30f240.png

     

    What I want to say, that a reversal "downstairs" hasn't yet happend ( or I am just to blind to see it in the charts)

    Sorry if this has been mentioned elsewhere,and it may or may not be relevant?

    The M.O 10 day trend forecast mentioned the recent warming and how it can lead to the reversal.

    The interesting bit I took was that on this occasion it has only 'partly reversed' so I'm guessing the effects have taken place but we are not seeing the complete reversal hoped for? Hence why we have this rather uninspiring set of runs in recent days...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    As we leave Jan and move toward February. 

    What is going to happen to the remainder of the PV

    image.thumb.png.3278a67054ec48a7af7de6016c84a612.png

    Surely that bodes well. One more warming and its possibly curtains. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    34 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Aha, so it seems, they can handle it?

    14th 00z vs 16th 00z for 24-1-21

    c3mvnuj8.gif

     

    Now 25th in comparission today 00z / yesterdays 00z

    dtxo3fff.gif

     

    Or lets do it with a 10 days prognosis of 850is for today

    6th Jan +10 days

     

    hope you get my point...

    I don't see any important differences, that matter to us. It remains more or less the same. No cold weather.
    Edit grammar.

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The models have returned to the suggestion of heights drifting westwards into northern Canada once the jet stream breaks through underneath the Atlantic ridge.

    image.thumb.png.cb10ee5d96db8467e35765449f50a28e.png
     

    image.thumb.png.200cdf063282d4de598845c63dcbf6c5.png
     

    image.thumb.png.7530119d5ded9102da1cc78be4379d63.png

     

    At this time deep cold looks unlikely. However we do appear to be in a rather cold and cyclonic set up. Anything to steer areas of low pressure further south from the Atlantic would be most welcome. Perhaps a left over wedge of heights to the north/north west would probably be sufficient to feed Atlantic lows into the trough near the U.K. at the right trajectory to deliver snowfall.

    The polar vortex at the lowest levels looks knackered, it is just a shame that at the moment the hemispheric pattern isn’t falling that well for us. However the risk of significant snow is still on the table, even if the likes of widespread ice days and negative double figure 850s are not.

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    You prove I'm right. No, important differences, that matter to us. For our part of the world it doens't it remains the same. No cold weather.

    I totally agree those images show the general themes and trends were correctly predicted surely ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    14 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Thanks . Unfortunately everything that can go wrong does in tonight’s outputs .

    It’s very disappointing for coldies but we’ve been here before , many times .

     

    Hi Nick

    completely agree with you again. 

    Years ago I used to make the mistake of looking too far out and seeing cold charts sometimes repeating run after run but only to be disappointed in the near timeframe of 4 to 5 days literally getting water down day by day until left with a disappointing mild scenario.

    so I learnt over the years to just ignore F1 charts as a complete waste of time snd emotions in winter. 
    however they do seem to provide more support/direction sometimes in summer with regards to high pressures , but even here they are not infallible. I find they are more accurate in summer than winter but of course if and in summer things can go wrong too . 

     

    so with regards to winter I just ignore F1 charts ,day 10 charts I just focus more so on 5 to 6 days but as we all know recently they can also be completely futile due to the current virtually Unforecastable Synoptics and slack systems all over the place at present. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    8 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Can you name the layer? Ok, 10hpa, thats upper Strat.

    In 150hpa I can't find the reversal (yet). Note: 150hpa is lowest Strat, more like Tropopause, 11.000meters hight

     

    If you look at the d10 ecm chart you can see what Tim means:

    818694266_ECH1-240(7).thumb.gif.16b22a454d0945208d01f07c3a908ab7.gif

    There are HP/wedges across from Siberia through the Arctic to the US, giving a mean easterly flow through those waypoints. That is rare and we can reasonable assume that it is the result of the SSWE? Who knows if we need a full reversal in the strat to cause that feedback in the trop? With the sPV on the move around and post that date it is suggested that this will be a short-term anomaly (3-5 days). This appears to be a one-off SSWE so we should maybe not expect a "normal" strat>trop redux?

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    13 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Not much point adding the 4 or 5 days point though,its already been stated on here a thousand times by various posters..its more about keeping your emotions in check when viewing the output. 

    Regarding John,he is basically saying what many are saying...the models are really struggling to nail anything down..but a mobile situation looks very unlikely. The point of this story being the models are providing more questions than answers right now. He doesn't rule out deep cold in February also. I think some may have been expecting a QTR following this SSW event..1stly...its only been around 10 days since the displacement,so in that respect we could be looking for the models to start showing the goods next week...on the other hand if its a much slower downwelling,we could be looking at 3-4 weeks.

    The SSW that occurred in January 2013 was bringing us bouts of winter right through March,so we can't rule this out also. Also worth noting was the event was not a total split...more off a displacement,but worth baring in mind was the fact the Vortex was already weak and meandering,this warming just weakened it further. It may not recover for quite sometime,thats if it does at all.. So we will remain in the game throughout these coming several weeks. Im not so sure about the nina affect moving forward....for me I've always been sceptical of how this influences the UK,especially as we are so far downstream of the event..El nino  for instance as been linked to backloaded Winters in the UK..there are numerous examples...but also a fair few studies that show they have little impact on our Weather. Im not sure if La Nina is gonna bring us a strong jet come next month,or we are going to have a battle between the affects of the Strat and Nina battling for supremacy...interesting times from now through till Mid March is my opinion 🤔 

    Edit...and on the other hand we may already be seeing some kind of reversal...to the North of us and spanning a hell of a long distance,as blue just pointed out.

    Great post there Matt thanks ever so some much for that. 
    I agree with you about the La Niña effect and would say eL Nino has a larger affect I have always thought that too. And yes I think you’re right as well about the 4/5 days comments . 

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    I don't see any important differences, that matter to us.

    Why you drop the 10day 850is GIF?

    h8p9q42s.gif

     

    For our part of the world it doens't it remains the same. No cold weather.

    Isn't this the synoptics thread, not the regional weather thread? Sorry, I am in the wrong thread, then...

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    7 minutes ago, IDO said:

    If you look at the d10 ecm chart you can see what Tim means:

    818694266_ECH1-240(7).thumb.gif.16b22a454d0945208d01f07c3a908ab7.gif

    There are HP/wedges across from Siberia through the Arctic to the US, giving a mean easterly flow through those waypoints. That is rare and we can reasonable assume that it is the result of the SSWE? Who knows if we need a full reversal in the strat to cause that feedback in the trop? With the sPV on the move around and post that date it is suggested that this will be a short-term anomaly (3-5 days). This appears to be a one-off SSWE so we should maybe not expect a "normal" strat>trop redux?

    All plausible, but after seeing the EZ Scenarios yesterday, I doubt, that EC is performaning very good ATM, so I have little trust.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    Isn't this the synoptics thread, not the regional weather thread? Sorry, I am in the wrong thread, then...

    For our part of the world means NW-Europe

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    For our part of the world means NW-Europe

    But you said no cold weather.

    And that is patently not true seb.

    There is cold weather forecast in NW Europe .

    Possibly snowy to across parts of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    But you said no cold weather.

    And that is patently not true seb.

    There is cold weather forecast in NW Europe .

    Possibly snowy to across parts of the UK.

    Okay, no significant cold weather for most of us. Of course there is always, on hills more chance on snow.

    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
    12 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Quite suprised by the number of negative posts on here this morning, the outlook still looks wintry, cold at times, with the chance of snow in places up to 144h. And that's with all 3 big models in agreement GFS/UKMO and ECM!

    Obviously there is a somewhat north south split, The next week looks good for the northern half of britain and poor for the southern half. With a more NW focus in the coming days that would obviously bring more westerly places into play. I think northern ireland and northwest england should be in on the game next week, perhaps some good accumulations and even modest levels of alltitude. As ever the higher your alttitude the greater chance of settling snow in this set-up. I think at times in the north westerly flow next weak with deep blues on the 500 uppers, I reckon low levels around belfast, manchester for instance should get in on the act.

    We,ve just had a snow event I wont ever forget, 6" of snow (at 300ft) that has lasted untouched 36 hours from just a borderline battleground situation with no real cold uppers and a messy looking chart. Just shows we don't need these perfect easterly's and -12 uppers to get the good stuff.

    I see the charts flipping from one extreme to the other over the last week or so, when will people learn, rather than placing all eggs in one basket run to run just take a step back and judge them all on a daily or even two daily basis, much less stressful and you can give a more balanced summary.

    Someone tell me how the big 3 models are bad at say 144h, way beyond fi at the moment? Not the typical juggernaut of lows barreling west to east across the atlantic or the dreaded bartlett.

    GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

    ECMOPEU00_144_1 (1).png

    UKMOPEU00_144_1 (1).png

    Thanks great advice for a complete novice ,i find that in here is sometimes quite more volatile than the models

    Edited by Garthvader
    Grammar
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    9 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Quite suprised by the number of negative posts on here this morning, the outlook still looks wintry, cold at times, with the chance of snow in places up to 144h. And that's with all 3 big models in agreement GFS/UKMO and ECM!

    Obviously there is a somewhat north south split, The next week looks good for the northern half of britain and poor for the southern half. With a more NW focus in the coming days that would obviously bring more westerly places into play. I think northern ireland and northwest england should be in on the game next week, perhaps some good accumulations and even modest levels of alltitude. As ever the higher your alttitude the greater chance of settling snow in this set-up. I think at times in the north westerly flow next weak with deep blues on the 500 uppers, I reckon low levels around belfast, manchester for instance should get in on the act.

    We,ve just had a snow event I wont ever forget, 6" of snow (at 300ft) that has lasted untouched 36 hours from just a borderline battleground situation with no real cold uppers and a messy looking chart. Just shows we don't need these perfect easterly's and -12 uppers to get the good stuff.

    I see the charts flipping from one extreme to the other over the last week or so, when will people learn, rather than placing all eggs in one basket run to run just take a step back and judge them all on a daily or even two daily basis, much less stressful and you can give a more balanced summary.

    Someone tell me how the big 3 models are bad at say 144h, way beyond fi at the moment? Not the typical juggernaut of lows barreling west to east across the atlantic or the dreaded bartlett.

    GFSOPEU00_144_1.png

    ECMOPEU00_144_1 (1).png

    UKMOPEU00_144_1 (1).png

    Isn't the gem supposed to be up there these days? 

    Suggest colder air from North East for Scandinavia later... 

    gemnh-0-144.png

    gemnh-0-240.png

    gemnh-1-240.png

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