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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    GFS ensembles trending much milder than yesterdays 18Z and all of todays runs 😔

    ens_image (4).png

    I wouldn't worry too much past the red line i have put on that gragh as fl starts there in my books...

    ens_image.thumb.png.b8b2a7e84f2843ea36a49fbf3f5b9da1.png

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    18z GEFS now showing a steep drop off at the end, who is up for round 3 of chasing it, reeling it in to between 168-240 then it all imploding in the space of 24 hours again???

    image.thumb.png.862a35cd2f80b6b270c3db2314bdee63.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    18z GEFS now showing a steep drop off at the end, who is up for round 3 of chasing it, reeling it in to between 168-240 then it all imploding in the space of 24 hours again???

    image.thumb.png.862a35cd2f80b6b270c3db2314bdee63.png

    Lol Feb,...i feel there is room for improvements days 5-8?

    after that there is so much scatter(prob due to the SSW )that it's not worth thinking about.

    but i will chase it with you☺️

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

    I think Daniel* said it last night. Look at all that cold air aloft to our east right now. It's moving away at the wrong time, going with the pattern.

    Next bout comes from the NW and favours NW Scotland, Northern Ireland, NW England NW Wales. I hope it come off for them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    57 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Lol Feb,...i feel there is room for improvements days 5-8?

    after that there is so much scatter(prob due to the SSW )that it's not worth thinking about.

    but i will chase it with you☺️

    I'm chasing it too lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    4 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Great post mate..your saying nothing is certain,but then finish by saying things should become much colder soon..sounds like you could be sitting on the fence a little there kid...love it 😀 

    I'm just thinking people on here are falling out with the models a bit regarding cold prospects going forward . When I honestly don't think the SSW as finished playing about with the models yet. I really do think a flip in the models towards cold is not far off at all. The 18z gfs show a warm up longer term(FI) Mmmm don't think so haha. Keep on chasing people it's coming. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    An early one from me.. While there will be more chances of snow in places next week the rain is the main feature.

     

    More rain later Monday heavy especially in western and northern parts, heavy snow likely on some hills and mountains of Scotland through Tuesday and into Wednesday becoming very windy later monday throughout Tuesday into Wednesday as well for England and Wales gusts inland of 40mph along with another area of heavy and persistent rainfall on Wednesday for England.. widely 20-30mm looks like accumulating from this spell and as much as 80mm over hills in the west and northwest.

    EUROPE_PRMSL_ZERO_102.thumb.jpg.61a6af8dd940cc12faa6840d488398ed.jpg

    287893940_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_90(1).thumb.jpg.fff348a5d2f6f6807dcc7b1933c74df8.jpg

    602452161_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_102(2).thumb.jpg.3e86083ea330606543d5828e6bb8335e.jpg

    Wind gusts..

    804750819_EUROPE_PRMSL_GUST_102(1).thumb.jpg.d99e1e9780483a8208b044764a50db8a.jpg

    Then By Wednesday low pressure shown circulating to the east and northeast with higher pressure towards Greenland bringing colder air from the north Wednesday and Thursday into Friday with frequent sleet and snow showers for Scotland, also the chance persistent spells of snow for here which could bring significant accumulations especially the hills and mountains..

    also showers some wintry effecting other places too and any showers for the south may be wintry by the end of the week next week with the chance of a low moving into the south on Thursday and into friday bringing further rain and with cold air across all parts the risk of sleet and snow on the northern edge of this too.. 🌨️

    2070205313_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_132(1).thumb.jpg.46f3caa202892ce99c88a8649c74ddf0.jpg

    Next Weekend looks like it will continue cold along with probably more rain which may move west to east through central and southern parts possibly wintry on the northern edge. 🙂

    EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_186.thumb.jpg.81827e7021d1edd1c1b3915047bf78cb.jpg

    Edited by jordan smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    No point posting any 00z gfs model crap. Pretty much same as the pub run meh. Low phasing and not pushing enough east. Atlantic riding under greenland high. Uppers around - 6 at the lowest up to 200hr.

    Edit. I think the pub run as taking over the early morning run. Basically spot the difference up to 218hr. I'm going to sleep aaarrrrgggghhhh

    Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Hi,

    After a couple (more than a few) whiskeys, Netflix and a small gaming session, I will attempt to deliver a round up of 0z runs.

    The GFS is similar to the 18z, actually superb consistency it must be said. 0z from yesterday had a much better Atlantic ridge. Really not great tbh big fat low parked over the UK with daughter vortices brining wet and some snow north. Para is basically the same as the 18z as well.

    image.thumb.png.3617512b6e148768e6d7fb4599c4d03d.pngimage.thumb.png.be58b75412598b1de439f63339f24047.pngimage.thumb.png.cf21bad844646a572b2aa7ae53be0fd0.png

    UKMO looks pretty good to me. Between 120 > 144 it sends a shortwave East but attempts another re-link with the greenie ridge/azores high.

    image.thumb.png.e9e8e95f281f25f4063c0073ba412a69.pngimage.thumb.png.356f647225892117b23ccb6c7620a0f3.png 

    Both GFS models have a snow even around the 23rd, as low runs through the midlands with snow on it's nothern edge, something to watch and is likely to be a repeat offender. These things usually trend south (as per the channel low of Dec just gone) so don't take anything the models show even if their is cross model support.

    The best way out I see of this mess is some good old Atlantic amplification, this will help drive the trough over the UK further South as well as advect colder air, a simple request but one that models really are not feeling right now, hopefully that will change.

     

    Outside chance of a surface level high forming over Scandi, if done welll it will help lows pass through the channel while still advecting colder air from the East, I believe the 12z control run was thinking of doing something similar? Something to watch.

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Hi,

    After a couple (more than a few) Netflix and a small gaming session, I will attempt to deliver a round up of 0z runs.

    The GFS is similar to the 18z, actually superb consistency it must be said. 0z from yesterday had a much better Atlantic ridge. Really not great tbh big fat low parked over the UK with daughter vortices brining wet and some snow north. Para is basically the same as the 18z as well.

    image.thumb.png.3617512b6e148768e6d7fb4599c4d03d.pngimage.thumb.png.be58b75412598b1de439f63339f24047.pngimage.thumb.png.cf21bad844646a572b2aa7ae53be0fd0.png

    UKMO looks pretty good to me. Between 120 > 144 it sends a shortwave East but attempts another re-link with the greenie ridge/azores high.

    image.thumb.png.e9e8e95f281f25f4063c0073ba412a69.pngimage.thumb.png.356f647225892117b23ccb6c7620a0f3.png 

    The best way out I see of this mess is some good old Atlantic amplification, this will help drive the trough over the UK further South as well as advect colder air, a simple request but one that models really are not feeling right now, hopefully that will change.

    If those 2 link. We will be in business 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Getting close to decent set up at ukmo 120 hours then it blows the low up at 144 hours and it's back to square one 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Getting close to decent set up at ukmo 120 hours then it blows the low up at 144 hours and it's back to square one 

    Low west or Ireland likely to drag the mother low SE as it swings south, as long as the other low in the Atlantic doesn't phase (heh been here a few times this winter) we might actually be alright as it will allow the high to link. 

    Realistically I see the second low ejecting another shortwave E. As always hard to call I feel, close either way.

     

    image.thumb.png.f786210c73bc315a0c70ad223200ed01.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    One common thing this winter is heights NE have been undermodelled, usually strengthining as they come closer to T0. Both GFS runs out in la la land (doing the unforgivable here and analysing charts past 144 someone call the model police!)

    image.thumb.png.f8f876cab3e49ce9d36ccd73b8b37bd5.pngimage.thumb.png.7444aa6f88a0b50a194c93befd80167b.png

    If those said heights are stronger or the arctic high has a stronger impact it will drive the Atlantic onslaught further SE, something to keep in mind I feel. Goes into the Scandi surface high theory too. Subtle shifts of the pattern which is defo achievable will lead to a much more favourable outcome...

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Chester le street
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heat, storms
  • Location: Chester le street

    Para  294 just for fun but has a channel runner. Big ridge heading well into the artic from the pacific

    gfsnh-0-294.thumb.png.6ea2d3460c223f6883a8884bb779a145.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

    I honestly don't think the charts are as bad as the general mood recently in here has implied. Past experience suggests that smaller daughter lows on the southern side of the main longwave trough don't get picked up until the short to medium-range. In this scenario, such shortwave could bring suprise snowfalls to anyone at fairly short notice. Admittedly, deep cold from the East doesn't look likely imminently, but who knows what will happen beyond ten days... 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Morning all. This is the earliest I have been up on a Saturday fir a while..Wonder why that could be 🤔❄️️ 
    Another reasonable set of 00z runs if you are into snow. Plenty of chances for all to see something. It’s not deep cold and will be marginal but it’s interesting 👍🏻

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    D414BFCA-3E0B-4A7B-8F01-66DA05943152.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM shifts the centre of the low midweek from North of the Uk to Northern England. Quite a big shift south, could go even further south 🤔 18z Vs 00z below 

    7B9EF3D8-CAD7-4ADD-BE3B-A0FAAEE81388.jpeg

    686C1964-742C-44DC-B9F5-27C72C392AC7.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 all 3. You would think that from here we would be in a good position for cold. Where the high goes will dictate how much of the uk benefits. T168 for Ecm and gfs with respective 850’s. We will see.😄

    DB167E45-3A06-4774-8EBC-4007F55EACFB.png

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    F92B1BF5-62D7-4D2A-8CD5-D58B956FACB3.png

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    ECM shifts the centre of the low midweek from North of the Uk to Northern England. Quite a big shift south, could go even further south 🤔 18z Vs 00z below 

    7B9EF3D8-CAD7-4ADD-BE3B-A0FAAEE81388.jpeg

    686C1964-742C-44DC-B9F5-27C72C392AC7.jpeg

    BANK! But it won’t happen, don’t know what to make of the models this morning, in a way it’s back to the December pattern of cold polar low set up and marginal snow although we are at the coldest time of year so that will help.

    What ever it is it’s not boring!

    Wet Saturday morning here not white, good luck to those in East Anglia you deserve some snow

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    10 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

    A very good point made from Vikos re the SSW.The effects are only just being felt and by 21st just using ECM as an example that is not a bad chart(UKMO AND GFS not too dissimilar).

    The frustration is understandable as we are so close yet so far but if the Pacific ridge and Arctic ridge can start becoming more prominent then we can push this ruddy trough further south.Signs are this COULD happen but we will just have to wait and see.

    Fascinating model watching and I think I have learnt a lot more on trying to read charts from the really good knowledgeable posters on here so thanks to all of you.👍

    5FABCAF4-DF2A-4231-9080-0F73584CE5F6.webp 68.39 kB · 1 download

    Absolutely. I have the 19fh down as my date for transition to more favourable charts 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    Just now, Penrith Snow said:

    BANK! But it won’t happen, don’t know what to make of the models this morning, in a way it’s back to the December pattern of cold polar low set up and marginal snow although we are at the coldest time of year so that will help.

    What ever it is it’s not boring!

    Wet Saturday morning here not white, good luck to those in East Anglia you deserve some snow

    Andy

    Why shouldn't it. I thibk there will be more shifts south than ever late 

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    At this range the chances of that wide area of snow indicated on that ECM chart actually occurring are slim. Is the ECM run even a good one? My head hurts or it’s just too early

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I think it’s an ok run, chance for some

    snow at times. Wouldn’t take much of an increase in heights around Greenland and a more favorable tilt to make this very cold ..

    D9E58974-8E0D-4A1D-A1C3-B01225940301.gif

    A2558E71-9B00-4109-B468-4A42CE982406.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire

    Is it possible that the affects of the SSW will be felt in a couple of weeks?and not immediately. 
    If so then the charts we are viewing aren’t a direct tropospheric response to the SSW but standard winter weather. 
    Maybe fi in this instance should be taken more seriously?  
    Something noteworthy has surely got to materialise from this winter. 

    Edited by wolvesfan
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