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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

     

    The highest area of uncertainty away from the mean .....

     

    I don't like the notion that uncertainty feels our best option mid term...

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    18z Aperge good for snow in East Anglia until lunchtime. 

    50BD2138-1BB3-4542-B556-1B91EB3C8184.png

    DD041FA5-A91E-480F-95D4-AEC138CE94FA.png

    C9CF85E4-1727-4CC6-A613-15339897BFE5.jpeg

    Big downgrade for South of the thames on this update unfortunately 

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The very end of the eps show the jet becoming more suppressed into Europe which would bring pretty much the whole of the U.K. into the raffle with a ticket from the winning book! 
     

    the fact that there is only one cluster isn’t great for the likely spread at that range but it’s an interesting development at day 15 on the mean 

    The GEFS 12z did have a significant cluster on the 850's graph plummeting of a cliff right at the very end, didn't check them, wished i had now, co-incidence or something more Nick?

     

    EDIT : and so does the 12z EPS graph, the 0z did as well but less pronounced, didn't think anything of it at the time.

    image.thumb.png.281519ed0e37491751f960e54893c6e6.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    18z ens at 240 appear to have massively downgraded. Most have us in westerlies by day 10. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    48 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    2 days later there’s another low in a similar position...

    0D5FAD66-3F02-4013-94F2-8BA8221CA37F.png

    Could get lucky with this pattern ... but it does seem it will be about luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    18z ens at 240 appear to have massively downgraded. Most have us in westerlies by day 10. 

     

    yes. always said until you have the eps on board its questionable, saw it coming a mile off, really looking like a Scotland only event now, the whole thing has just capitulated  im afraid.

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  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    yes. always said until you have the eps on board its questionable, saw it coming a mile off, really looking like a Scotland only event now, the whole thing has just capitulated  im afraid.

    I disagree, the situation is so uncertain that the ensemble suites will have much less of a chance of resolving it because of their lower resolution compared to the ops.  We really do need to sit this one out for a few days until recent developments in the strat like todays split can filter down. We are not waiting for the weather, we are waiting for the models to get a grip, and the op runs will lead when that happens.  

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  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
    1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

    Something that might be slipping under the radar, is the potential how wet it could turn out

    image.thumb.png.08f46b7a7ac0d906166dd5d77e1fbcf4.png

    Could mean heavy snowfall at times if the right conditions line up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    5 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

    Could mean heavy snowfall at times if the right conditions line up.

    Yes indeed , sleet in Northampton and on the leading edge in South Wales , be nice if it had been modelled slightly wrong and snowed 100 miles further West 

     

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  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Something that might be slipping under the radar, is the potential how wet it could turn out

    image.thumb.png.08f46b7a7ac0d906166dd5d77e1fbcf4.png

    That’s quite worrying given how full the rivers are already.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Good Post mate. Perhaps we could have a points deduction system for repeat offenders... What the mods give they taketh away.. In which case I would have 0 points for talking tosh most of the time 😂 Yes it's a great forum and it's a shame that some result in slanging matches to get there point across. We can all disagree on here, but surely in a civil manner! But there are some excellent knowledgeable posters on here who I take alot of notice in, and there are some with great sense of humours, and there are a few who wear there heart on there sleeves and tend to get very emotional when the output goes the wrong way.. Let's not forget bad output today can equate to good output the next day.. This is a great hobby and fascinating to follow, but it's probably best we don't let it rule our lives. If we miss out this time, then we simply dust ourselves down and get ready for the next one. What's going on out there in the big wide world right now is worrying, it makes you think we may not be here this time next month... Now that's stress... This is weather, yes it's intriguing, but let's not squabble over outcomes that may not even be there on the next set of runs... Anyway I'm expecting some better output this weekend..... If not there is always next week folks. 

    Yesterday is History, tomorrow is a mystery... But today is a gift... That's why it's called the present. 

    Stay tuned for some juicy 18z ens.. Coming shortly. 

    Amen to this absolutely Matt! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    ...And purely for fun,...the control saves the day😏

    gensnh-0-1-324.thumb.png.c022d6cab7e8971df0823a8df2abf1b7.pnggensnh-0-0-324.thumb.png.7e572043194e4955ea91a62e81fa45d9.png

    a good run from the parra too,maybe this first bite of the cherry is a tame affair and the main course comes later,will see if there is consistency from this as we close January out and into the start of February.

    BTW @MATTWOLVES,great post as always mate😏 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Deepest FI but Control is a good looker

    image.thumb.png.2b1a98f384610420195504c185ad315f.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Something that might be slipping under the radar, is the potential how wet it could turn out

    image.thumb.png.08f46b7a7ac0d906166dd5d77e1fbcf4.png

    Yes I thought that earlier today. There have been a number of runs recently that throw low after low towards us, from the end of next week. It's either flooding or avalanches!

    Oh, and I looked through D15 on the ECM ensembles, 60% of runs get the main trough either south or east of the UK by that time, meaning a considerable number at long last get a decent amount of cold upper air to our shores. Quite impressive agreement on placing the main trough over Europe, but too far out for anything but note-taking right now.

    Key focus in the next few days of model watching: where are the Atlantic lows headed, if they slide under the low to our north, will they draw cold down on their northern edge. Boats or sledges could both be useful!

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Yes I thought that earlier today. There have been a number of runs recently that throw low after low towards us, from the end of next week. It's either flooding or avalanches!

    Oh, and I looked through D15 on the ECM ensembles, 60% of runs get the main trough either south or east of the UK by that time, meaning a considerable number at long last get a decent amount of cold upper air to our shores. Quite impressive agreement on placing the main trough over Europe, but too far out for anything but note-taking right now.

    Key focus in the next few days of model watching: where are the Atlantic lows headed, if they slide under the low to our north, will they draw cold down on their northern edge. Boats or sledges could both be useful!

    I have been meaning to say this but the output(NWP'S) have been showing this scenario for quite some time now and we are starting to count down the clock into the reliable with these system running under the upper trough to our north,the METO have been bullish with this too,the boundery line is up for grabs and it could be anywhere TBH.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    The control shows the pattern we could all be in if everything shifted South several hundred miles, frustrating, but perhaps this will be the final outcome. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    4 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    GFS ensembles trending much milder than yesterdays 18Z and all of todays runs 😔

    ens_image (4).png

    That's just Fridgid uppers 😂😂

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