Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Paul]

Please leave the half quoted (and indeed fully quoted) tweets out of this thread, unless it is, at the very least a part of a more detailed discussion of the specifics of the model output in your post. Otherwise all we end up with is a game of chinese whispers around a line of text which has zero additional context or info with it. 

We have the tweets thread if people want to just post a snippet of info they've seen up though:

 

[sebastiaan1973]

30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon 00z v 06z

Little bit more pressure around Greenland.

Not sure what to make of the 00z runs, seems chaotic. The only constant theme coming through atm is the Pacific high punching into the Arctic around day 8 and 9.

 

I don't know. The general theme seems to me we can't get any proper cold air. We have a weak Greeny high, low pressure at the east side which is stubborn. No Scandihigh. Arctic high too far to the north. Seems to me little reason to hope. I believe the models are good enough to handle the SSW-effects.

[ALL ABOARD]

If this is the route we are heading after a SSW.. 

Give me back the trop pattern before it. 

Another Greenland high that can't get there, becoming a recurring theme, have we seen the end of it? 

The eps, ECM monthly have been poor in terms of producing big stonking black hole anomalies when in fact its nothing of the sort. 

Could end up very wet if the GFS is anything to go by. 

Ironically GFS has slightly colder air incoming 180 and looks a lot like the met video from yesterday? 

Who knows? 

Not me... 

[Notty]

That weird chart has popped up again today - like a train of little LPs

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

That weird chart has popped up again today - like a train of little LPs

 Look at how much colder it it

[topo]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If this is the route we are heading after a SSW.. 

Give me back the trop pattern before it. 

 

Exactly!!!

Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!!

Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

[sebastiaan1973]

6 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

If this is the route we are heading after a SSW.. 

Give me back the trop pattern before it. 

 

The tropsheric pattern before the SSW wasn't delevering significant cold weather either.

[Paul_1978]

I must be looking at different charts as I think it’s a great run. We’re quickly back into keen northerlies next week. Surely there’s going to be snow around. 

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, topo said:

Exactly!!!

Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!!

Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

At -5 and -3 atm cold rain.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

I must be looking at different charts as I think it’s a great run. We’re quickly back into keen northerlies next week. Surely there’s going to be snow around. 

For some its BFTE or nothing.

[Cuban Zebra]

3 minutes ago, topo said:

Exactly!!!

Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!!

Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

Or maybe it’s a very rare combination of events that the models have very little experience of handling and the same goes for the human input element as well.

[Drifter]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

I must be looking at different charts as I think it’s a great run. We’re quickly back into keen northerlies next week. Surely there’s going to be snow around. 

But it doesn’t look that cold and also looks short lived. 
 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

I must be looking at different charts as I think it’s a great run. We’re quickly back into keen northerlies next week. Surely there’s going to be snow around. 

It will be all hit an miss again though with northern areas with altitude favoured and arguments about uppers not being good enough raging again.  Any low lying snow quickly melting.

Maybe this will be different, maybe it won't. We'll have to wait and see.

[Ninman]

Heights slightly lowered over Italy at 210h on this run.If we can avoid a pressure rise over the med then that's a small positive Trying to be positive!

[mountain shadow]

Into South Westerlies by a week tomorrow if the GFS 6z Op is to be believed after a brief cool Northerly..

[danm]

2 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

Isn't the problem here the Azores High, not what is happening further north. The N Atlantic ridge seems keen, the trough wants to drop from the north, but the high traveling from the Azores into Iberia keeps wanting to poke its nose in? Seems to me atm the effect of the SSW is to merely keep us from a full blown Euro high, not to radically alter the NH pattern. Though I'm surprised not to see better heights over the pole in general.

Agree, I think the Azores high has been the key spoiler so far with this set up. 

[IDO]

Def a move by the gfs 06z run towards the flatter ecm at the same time:

06z>0z>

Assuming we are seeing the strat>trop coupling then this atm looks a very weak response by the trop to that forcing. Possibly a La Nina -v- SSWE tit-for-tat and the earlier blocking runs were the algorithms factoring in the SSWE, but the data feedback may now be countering the expected forcing?

Whatever, it does appear that the repercussions of the SSWE is unexceptional, at least for the next 10-days.

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, Notty said:

That weird chart has popped up again today - like a train of little LPs

This is the kind of trend we need to see, look at the Azores high being squeezed south away from Iberia with more of a disturbed flow into mainland Europe.

If we can get that flow into Europe underneath the Scandi trough it should make for some much colder UK charts.

[snowblizzard]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Agree, I think the Azores high has been the key spoiler so far with this set up. 

Invariably, Azores high is a winter killer for UK!  

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, jason6347 said:

Was the ecm op an outlier at all?

Nope

[Ninman]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Agree, I think the Azores high has been the key spoiler so far with this set up. 

Yes if the Azores can do one it would allow the LPs to dig further south rather than just filling in over us, so we can maintain a flow of colder 850s from the north/NE. At the moment we just keep getting wrap around cold which gets heavily moderated.

[MJB]

13 minutes ago, topo said:

Exactly!!!

Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!!

Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

I wouldn't say they are ( SSW ) overestimated , it's no given we get cold weather from it 

[IDO]

Bring back Atlantic zonal, it is usually drier than the next 10-days of the SSWE:

What a horrible outlook for the south, those in the north and at altitude may see some wet snow at times.

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Nope

Quite a spread though it has to be said 

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest 4 GFS for 24 of January 6u. You see the demise of the Greenland high. The west circulation is too strong and not enough to the south. Seems to me we can forget proper cold weather in 10 days time. Disappointing.