Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[IDO]

The ecm d4 moves west in symmetry with the gfs 12z:

Subtle variations with features so it maybe can avoid the same solution?

Edited January 15, 2021 by IDO

[The Northern Ramper]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sea surface temps ..

Sorry, I meant what are they currently and what parameters should we look for?

[Griff]

Anyway back or going west? 

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Anyway back or going west? 

Would like to see the 850’s before passing judgment.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Would like to see the 850’s before passing judgment.

I don't think you would.... 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I don't think you would.... 

It is getting colder from that point thou 

Edited January 15, 2021 by frosty ground

[chris55]

2 hours ago, That ECM said:

It’s interesting. Similar looking charts 

The trends are good this evening! The Azores/Euro high (or infamous Iberian heights....) are all squeezed south.

Overall, from UKMO and GFS up to 144, things are looking very positive.

[ICE COLD]

Better uppers at day 7 .

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

I don't think you would.... 

Hmm that’s only Thursday and colder air looks to be tracking south, I’d guess by Friday that modest high ground would see snow east of Manchester as well as other favoured north west areas.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It is getting colder from that point thou 

Yes quite, does improve

[offerman]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

The trends are good this evening! The Azores/Euro high (or infamous Iberian heights....) are all squeezed south.

Overall, from UKMO and GFS up to 144, things are looking very positive.

Hi Chris, can you give me a link to the UKMO charts, thanks

[chris55]

4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Chris, can you give me a link to the UKMO charts, thanks

The UKMO and GFS 144 are in the post from 'That ECM' that I quoted. look above ^^^

But here is UKMO 96-120-144 from Wetter

[Penrith Snow]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

For sure there is plenty of cold / wintry potential according too the GEFS 12z...ok, I’m done, too many negative comments for me..I have faith in Exeter!..nuff said!  ️ 

Absolutely, GFS has swung widely like a drunken sailor recently, one day its snowy Narnia next day its Bartlett Heaven while Exeter has stuck to its guns since Christmas with a rather cold outlook with snow in places.

And guess what since Christmas its been rather cold with snow in places!

I wish the MetO would be more open with there data and we could see what Glosea is predicting, afterall we pay for the organisation through our taxes.

I will continue to ignore GFS FI as its even more fantasy this winter than most, you might as well look at a 240 chart and turn it upside down, the result is just as likely to happen.

Andy

[IDO]

Looks like we finally have consensus to around d10. The gefs mean and d8 ecm:

So a less cold period and we will just have to hope this is not a long spell.

 

[Penrith Snow]

33 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Could be worse, but youll need yout reading glases!

Hmmm, that warm pool directly to our north isn't going to do us any favours with the northerly unless its very cold and could then instigate through development.

Typical that the negative anomalies are to our south west, fat lot of good they are!

Andy

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looks like we finally have consensus to around d10. The gefs mean and d8 ecm:

So a less cold period and we will just have to hope this is not a long spell.

 

Still pretty cold at day 9 so maybe not that much milder really . 

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Still pretty cold at day 9 so maybe not that much milder really . 

I was referring to post-d10 as the ridge builds in behind the cold. D10 has been the gefs nominee date for a pick up in temps, so we will get a few days cold before that.

I looked at the CET and was surprised it was only -1.2c below average so it could be a close call to get a sub-average CET this January which will be a bit of a shock to many forecasts!

Edited January 15, 2021 by IDO

[mountain shadow]

GFS  GFS para and ECM day 10 all have South Westerlies at day 10 which would be week 3 after the SSW.

[Polar Maritime]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS  GFS para and ECM day 10 all have South Westerlies at day 10 which would be week 3 after the SSW.

Exactly, The great uncertainty 4/5 days out continues.

[Northern Sky]

Crazy NH chart at 240hrs! 

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

I was referring to post-d10 as the ridge builds in behind the cold. D10 has been the gefs nominee date for a pick up in temps, so we will get a few days cold before that.

I looked at the CET and was surprised it was only -1.2c below average so it coule be a close call to get a sub-average CET this January which will be a bit of a shock to many forecasts!

A waste of time looking past day 10 if that. Listen to the pros. Weathertrending.com for example.

 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looks like we finally have consensus to around d10. The gefs mean and d8 ecm:

So a less cold period and we will just have to hope this is not a long spell.

 

Here is a different view. (day 8 from the ops GFS and ECM)

A boundary snowfall is a high probability IMO. Less cold/more mild......depends on where you are and how the pattern unfolds. Means just blur the lines in this set up.

Ec day 8

GFS day 8

[nick sussex]

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

[chris55]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

I was referring to post-d10 as the ridge builds in behind the cold. D10 has been the gefs nominee date for a pick up in temps, so we will get a few days cold before that.

I looked at the CET and was surprised it was only -1.2c below average so it could be a close call to get a sub-average CET this January which will be a bit of a shock to many forecasts!

Then why did you post the day 8 ECM op and the day 8 GFS mean???

[offerman]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No point spinning . The brutal truth is the Greenie Ridge heads off into the sunset , any deeper cold sees the U.K. and panics and it looks like nothing but a washout for most with some snow reserved for higher elevations .

It’s quite extraordinary to see the PV in Siberia , no PV anywhere to the north or nw but the sum total is crud for the UK .

I’m beginning to wonder whether the SSW shuffled the pack and left Western Europe with the worst outcome .

After tonight’s outputs surely the only way is up ! 

Spot on Nick, Always like reading your posts as no glossing it up or cherry picking.