Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Now is the time those of us in western facing hillier areas look at the Irish sea SSTS...

They will play a role as winds switch WNW /NW...

I think you've got your seas mixed up!

[Frosty.]

For sure there is plenty of cold / wintry potential according too the GEFS 12z...ok, I’m done, too many negative comments for me..I have faith in Exeter!..nuff said!  ️ 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think you've got your seas mixed up!

Which one is he talking about?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Which one is he talking about?

Irish sea

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Irish sea

Is that not the one you mention

[The Northern Ramper]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Now is the time those of us in western facing hillier areas look at the Irish sea SSTS...

They will play a role as winds switch WNW /NW...

What are they?

[Tim Bland]

Looks like a mild outlier at the end and a few very cold members appearing ..

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Is that not the one you mention

Yes , winds will veer from wnw / nw so of course Irish sea ssts will be a factor...for us

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Timmytour]

39 minutes ago, IDO said:

You can ignore FI but it has been quite apparent for a few days the trend towards the cold being too far north and a milder spell for d10-16 with a more westerly flow:

The 06z gefs 2m temps and the wind direction show this well. Obviously while the op and control did not go this route we had hope of a flip on the ensembles, but after d6 the mean and clusters are usually the best guide.

Looking at the d12 chart and it is hard to tell we are in the midst of an SSWE:

Certainly nothing like I was expecting and it is clear that the strat>trop imprint is battling some trop background forcing. 

We shall see how this less cold blip progresses, and of course the models may just simply be wrong and we get a new FI tomorrow? 

I'll treat them with as much reverence as I paid the d10-16 charts from 10 days ago.....

[sheikhy]

31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Aperge looking good for some morning snow in the east. DPs stay 0c until late morning so hopefully time for a snowman before it melts... 

 

Yeh posted this in the regional thread earlier!!!hopefully ecm and euro4 follow the arpege but i doubt it!!give a bit more widespread snow even if it does melt afterwards!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm amazed at the negativety in here when each and every op run shows a downgrade... Seriously folks... Read John Hammonds blog... There is a lot going on right now, and top forecasters do not change there thoughts on each and every op run.. How would you compile a forecast for anyone, if you were to change your mind on every operational run! You would be issuing a different forecast half a dozen times a day.. At least wait for all the ensembles and other data before driving yourselves mad... With thoughts of.... Its all over, and Winter is ticking down... If it grieves you that much, take a step back and view the models a few days later.. Or wait for all the days output, the ens the EPS, and make a valid call to where you may think its heading at the end of the day... But even then, bare in mind the output you view the next day maybe completely different again! But you can't for sure make valid claims on the back of 1 or 2 operational runs.. Its impossible.. And with the fact the strat and trop are in a mess just makes it all the more difficult! It's Friday... Have a beer and chill... The models will still be here later... And I can guarantee you they will be showing something completely different again.

[ICE COLD]

Models are a bit of no mans land at the min not really cold but not really mild . Looking pretty snowy here in the morning tho . @Tim Bland amber warning in are yards now
 

Edited January 15, 2021 by ICE COLD

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, Ramp said:

What are they?

Sea surface temps ..

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sea surface temps ..

Not sure what the confusion is, NWS asks about the Irish sea temperatures which is totally relevent for a north westerly!...how can this be the wrong sea? Its the sea which runs up the western side of the UK for those who dont have O level geography

Edited January 15, 2021 by KTtom

[Phil Blake]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes , winds will veer from wnw / nw so of course Irish sea ssts will be a factor...for us

 

Current SSTs around the UK. Irish sea warmer than our above average North sea which buggered the easterly not so long ago.

[Stu_London]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks like a mild outlier at the end and a few very cold members appearing ..

Very much what I would have expected - the short ensembles have really tightened over the last day or so. Still some very cold members but a little disappointing not to see some members showing a decent scandi pressure rise. Such patterns are reasonable rare in January which is traditionally quite mobile and with whats left of the PV in our locality, to be expected really. 

Perhaps week 1 or 2 of February will see this pattern change and better opportunities from the east. 

 

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes , winds will veer from wnw / nw so of course Irish sea ssts will be a factor...for us

 

Apologies. There's a member call NorthwestNI. I go you mixed up.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

Current SSTs around the UK. Irish sea warmer than our above average North sea which buggered the easterly not so long ago.

Thanks for that..

In truth they are slightly lower than I thought they would be...

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks for that..

In truth they are slightly lower than I thought they would be...

I guess an anomoly chart would be more usefull?

[IDO]

30 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'll treat them with as much reverence as I paid the d10-16 charts from 10 days ago.....

Funny you should mention that.

The d10 mean from 10-days ago and the actual. that is not a bad call. Spotted the Arctic high, Russian high, Pacific high and Iberian breaking wave with the respective troughs!

Ignoring FI when it does not show cold which generally verifies much higher than dissecting FI cold charts that rarely land at T0! It seems a juxtaposition!

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by IDO

[Phil Blake]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I guess an anomoly chart would be more usefull?

Anybody have a link? I've screenshot this from NOAA website which id say Irish sea slightly warmer than average

[KTtom]

Could be worse, but youll need yout reading glases!

[Griff]

Latest vs previous ecm 96 hours 

Edit: really not sure what I'm hoping to see after everything that has followed ukmo earlier 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Griff

[offerman]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm amazed at the negativety in here when each and every op run shows a downgrade... Seriously folks... Read John Hammonds blog... There is a lot going on right now, and top forecasters do not change there thoughts on each and every op run.. How would you compile a forecast for anyone, if you were to change your mind on every operational run! You would be issuing a different forecast half a dozen times a day.. At least wait for all the ensembles and other data before driving yourselves mad... With thoughts of.... Its all over, and Winter is ticking down... If it grieves you that much, take a step back and view the models a few days later.. Or wait for all the days output, the ens the EPS, and make a valid call to where you may think its heading at the end of the day... But even then, bare in mind the output you view the next day maybe completely different again! But you can't for sure make valid claims on the back of 1 or 2 operational runs.. Its impossible.. And with the fact the strat and trop are in a mess just makes it all the more difficult! It's Friday... Have a beer and chill... The models will still be here later... And I can guarantee you they will be showing something completely different again.

What did John say ?

 

Also you could add to your post " stop looking beyond day 4/5 and  in to F1 as concrete, its not . even 2/3 days is proving difficult to forecast let alone 4/5 days at present.

 

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Latest vs previous ecm 96 hours 

Looks quite a change to me!