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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

    getting there .....but nothing noteworthy though .....1584571820_uppers24thJan.thumb.png.e00b0c25090a8fa84f501bf1c97218c0.png

    Gfsp vs gfs at 180.

    Para has colder air to the north. 

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    So if 180 is impossibly far in the future, this is just pointless FI? 🤔 

    gfsnh-0-210.png

    You're right, there are differences at 96 between the GFS and Para, although the Para is fairly closely aligned to the UKMO at that point. FI firmly placed at 72 hours currently. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
    1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

    How do see the next round of games including? 

    I don't Unfortunetly. 

    There is to much variation and small changes in the near term to take anything over 4 days with a pinch of salt. 

    The broadscale pattern for next week atm.. 

    Low pressure towards the NE of the UK, bringing increasingly colder air from the NW... 

    Rain to start but Increasing chance of snow showers for North and West UK. 

    Beyond that? Lottery numbers for tonight please... 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    Don't worry Griff, it *should* unphase (I don't think that's a word?).

    Not this time sadly

    gfsnh-0-198.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    Fair to say a slight step back again tonight. Both GFS runs are not as good as the 6z.

    Look at this for a day ten chart 🙄

    spacer.png

    I always find it hard to decipher the way ahead with UKMO 144hr charts. GEM is terrible at 144hrs. 

    Someone cheer me up!

    Edited by Johnp
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Stick to 144z max at moment 

    UKMO

    image.thumb.png.7b8d044f8475c3dbcbb9c2d0b1de0b7e.png

    GFS

    image.thumb.png.90e8b61f1826ca770286d533393b4683.png

    06z GFS

    image.thumb.png.be198bf324c400ee9b38202d61277d8d.png

    12z GFS

    image.thumb.png.f808c257dfe2c8b65f9b1e2a3adcb040.png

    No point going any further as volatility reigns in the Arctic region as an Arctic high is repaced by a lobe of vortex?

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Dire GFS.

    A brief 'colder' Northerly then back to Westerlies. No thanks.

    image.thumb.png.23ec814c502edf48a228882836ff0001.png

    Para going the same way..

    image.thumb.png.edfee810720332b89be5b1f275f4e889.png

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Not this time sadly

    gfsnh-0-198.png

    Nope, it's a case of the UKMO giveth and the GFS/GFSP/Control taketh away!

    Maybe the ECM will give us some cheer later 😬

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    There's not been many days showing westerlies this Winter but it seems early next week they come in under the Atlantic low A brief milder spell before some cold starts heading back south towards day 6.

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.a320bfabd9e0907e291ce87a19a4abfe.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.b796435b12bfd600adc56fcb3058d650.png

    The phasing of the lows off the eastern seaboard and our low again just too quick which lines up further Atlantic attacks too far north on these runs.This delays the coming south of the colder air.

     

     

     

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    Around +2 in 850 hpa uppers in south scandinavia next thursday, seems like nothing can reverse the upcoming mild period in next week now. 

    GFS 12z.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    9 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Fair to say a slight step back again tonight. Both GFS runs are not as good as the 6z.

    Look at this for a day ten chart 🙄

    spacer.png

    I always find it hard to decipher the way ahead with UKMO 144hr charts. GEM is terrible at 144hrs. 

    Someone cheer me up!

    Wait for the ENS 

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    Fair to say a slight step back again tonight. Both GFS runs are not as good as the 6z.

    I always find it hard to decipher the way ahead with UKMO 144hr charts. GEM is terrible at 144hrs. 

    Someone cheer me up!

    If the UKMO model itself doesn't decipher the way ahead from there (except that hidden 168h), then why should you?
    There is a reason why UKMO only runs up to 168h (up to 144 visible for us) and EC High res Op only to 240.
    This afternoon the runs so far don't show any unexpected changes.

    Take a breath and take the advice of many experienced members on here and stop looking further ahead for a while.
    Unless you consider it as what it is: Just for fun, grown up people watching bright colours moving around every 6 hours 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Scrap what i said earlier!!pretty atrocious after 144 hours and to be fair no real snowy opportunities before that anyway barr the the south east tomorrow!!with winter counting down we really cant afford anymore time wasting from the models and delays!!!i said it over and over again the real snowy charts are always 10 days and after and when they do get in the reliable they are watered down to such an extent its just back to normality!!

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    Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Scrap what i said earlier!!pretty atrocious after 144 hours and to be fair no real snowy opportunities before that anyway barr the the south east tomorrow!!with winter counting down we really cant afford anymore time wasting from the models and delays!!!i said it over and over again the real snowy charts are always 10 days and after and when they do get in the reliable they are watered down to such an extent its just back to normality!!

    Time wasting from the models? they don't make the weather happen, they just try and predict it. It can be very frustrating, but don't go chasing day 10 charts if you're just going to be disappointed, as many have been saying on here for the past weeks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    GEFS mean at 144z

    image.thumb.png.f0881b446c4d2c91e31388ca230fe0c9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    You can ignore FI but it has been quite apparent for a few days the trend towards the cold being too far north and a milder spell for d10-16 with a more westerly flow:

    21083331_ink(5).thumb.png.d50ec4da506f0e8f0cc9c61b867d47dc.png627116173_ink(4).thumb.png.22badb01634f78a79edf0594977475f8.png

    The 06z gefs 2m temps and the wind direction show this well. Obviously while the op and control did not go this route we had hope of a flip on the ensembles, but after d6 the mean and clusters are usually the best guide.

    Looking at the d12 chart and it is hard to tell we are in the midst of an SSWE:

    gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.210bd6e5e9de16ca95c50834448ffd3e.pnggfsnh-1-312.thumb.png.e31d1de84f17c770fd92b5982cff63cc.png

    Certainly nothing like I was expecting and it is clear that the strat>trop imprint is battling some trop background forcing. 

    We shall see how this less cold blip progresses, and of course the models may just simply be wrong and we get a new FI tomorrow? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    I wouldn’t be to down beat I wouldn’t  take anything past day 4 at the moment so much going on be very different on next runs maybe Scandinavia high next on model runs .. who knows.

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    Posted
  • Location: York, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Heat
  • Location: York, UK
    1 minute ago, Pray4snow said:

    GEFS mean at 192h

     

    gensnh-2-1-192.png

    That's pet2 ^ 

    mean is this

    gensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.c3eead5a5817068f1ec6ecc164258a62.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham

    I did say a couple of days ago that surprises will come from this set up for snow lovers and my feelings haven’t changed indeed I think a few will have some pleasant surprises tommorow 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Aperge looking good for some morning snow in the east. DPs stay 0c until late morning so hopefully time for a snowman before it melts... 

    5C76F9B5-CE39-4E4D-8C56-18FACF29A676.png

    6171F238-2B03-476B-9C12-C67743EB46CB.png

     

    D8C1E088-8B99-4279-9B39-176469CC3080.png

    FF75361D-AB47-4BA6-B30C-EC10F625CA33.jpeg

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Now is the time those of us in western facing hillier areas look at the Irish sea SSTS...

    They will play a role as winds switch WNW /NW...

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    39 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Fair to say a slight step back again tonight. Both GFS runs are not as good as the 6z.

    Look at this for a day ten chart 🙄

    spacer.png

    I always find it hard to decipher the way ahead with UKMO 144hr charts. GEM is terrible at 144hrs. 

    Someone cheer me up!

    Feeling the same, finding it hard to keep posting day 8+ charts as they never seem to come to fruition, unfortunately it won’t stop be getting excited the next time and keep coming back for me😂 

    One positive today is the UKMO, it’s really not far from being a good chart at day 6

    CFEAC763-E993-46EA-8F45-AD1F0FF15502.gif

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