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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    To back up my earlier comment I see things not so positive in Europe for February. La Nina is not weakening despite some models seen it last month and it has switched to the west with colder anomalies. Where I see things going is not far from latest long range EPS clusters along with positive IOD trends of SE Europe ridge February onwards, it may extend to western Russia with then surface cold under trough in western Europe, hardly beast from the east synoptic. East/Central Europe with very mild pattern and cooler western Scandi/Scotland

    cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

    Ers-5tlXcAEjx6z.png

    iod.PNG

    mjo_rmm.daily.20210113.png

    20210105.sstOutlooks_iod.png

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    46 minutes ago, Cymro said:

    That’s not strictly true Tim, large parts of Northern and Western Wales were snowcovered last week for 5 days+. I think the pending ssw affects have raised our expectations a little too high. 

    True but I think most of north Wales comes under the caveat of ‘high ground’ ? Glad you had some though and hope you get more soon 🤞

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Take on board what @johnholmes says about not looking past 144.

    But I think we can still pick up repeating trends past this point. E.g Pacific high

    logically past 144 it's statistically not going to verify near what's shown but it wouldn't be as exciting if we didn't peak past 144.

    GFS at 192 giving it a good go at linking up the heights

    gfsnh-0-192 (6).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.b03602fd7cf197b19de7b5fe9ffdf5d7.png

    Para 174h

    image.thumb.png.21f826f92fa32361611c7002addc5f4e.png

    OP 174h 

    Quite a difference between them with regards the LP coming into the Atlantic 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.18343eb4afd58715de685591d2bf062d.pngimage.thumb.png.c0df6959d3721408d4bb434785eff36c.png

    06z v 00z GFS gives a good example of the sort of detail we can only guess about at the moment.

    06z trough / low shape sends the initial cold push a bit west of the UK but is better aligned for bringing further cold air in for the weekend.

    Potentially rewarding. While the pattern west of us has to hold favourably for longer if we take that route, it seems that may be the only way we could secure something colder than marginal for low-level snow by the weekend.

    Who knows, maybe another route will become apparent but I think that would require exceptional (i.e. unlikely) short-term changes to how the low from by the Azores behaves.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So, here we are at Day 7, and it's welcome back to The Water Margin:😱

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Always, when I see charts like these, I wonder just how marginal things would be, were we able to superimpose these exact synoptics onto the Northern Hemisphere's (average sea-ice, SSTs and snow-cover...) basal conditions, as they were in say 1980?🤔

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.7fe5240cede6a7f724525c4f21c89d5a.png

    Snow to rain or staying as snow ? 

    image.thumb.png.2de48680cecaf87bcb31b2ca8147547c.png

    image.thumb.png.4a4f2d58514575ed08a0b6dc4cb0628a.png

    Can't complain with this set up

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.8b06ddbd524625ce2d679205ef230373.png

    Sliders galore on this run ............take it now lol JFF 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    True but I think most of north Wales comes under the caveat of ‘high ground’ ? Glad you had some though and hope you get more soon 🤞

    Well im in west wales, and so far ive had 3 frosts and absolutely no snow so far this year! This winter so far is definately a location winter, great for some, rubbish for most (population wise anyway).... anyway, better leave it there, at least the last 2 gfs runs hold some promise for a few areas that have missed out so far. If we get the cold south of the UK as shown, then were all in the game for any Atlantic incursions...

    GFSOPEU06_192_2.png

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.8b06ddbd524625ce2d679205ef230373.png

    Sliders galore on this run ............take it now lol JFF 

    This looks like the ECM weeklies... If we can shift the Arctic high a little further south, everyone will be happy (apart from those who don't want snow)

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.1e7a0a89d1dd3d83de7aba273a86a118.png

    image.thumb.png.fb813b4dee50ee7ca142e84bfd3ccb04.png

    PARA likes the idea of a LP across the South as well 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    just for fun, slider again mainly S of M4, so far in FI though, they may not even exist

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Slaughterhouse, I mean Slidergate 5?:drunk-emoji:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

    Looking very reminiscent of early March 1970, when I had the enormously good fortune of living in Tunbridge Wells; and a good example in which Uppers of -10C are not necessary for a good dumping!🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Chance of it, or anything like it, happening? Zilch!?😁

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    gfs-0-216.png?6

    Slider has been hinted at in this time frame across a few models.

    Since over a week ago to. I've been watching for this (due to my location) and sliders into cold air around/just after 21st have been modelled quite frequently.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well im in west wales, and so far ive had 3 frosts and absolutely no snow so far this year! This winter so far is definately a location winter, great for some, rubbish for most (population wise anyway).... anyway, better leave it there, at least the last 2 gfs runs hold some promise for a few areas that have missed out so far. If we get the cold south of the UK as shown, then were all in the game for any Atlantic incursions...

    GFSOPEU06_192_2.png

    Hi KT

    What should we be lookimg st in the models in the near timeframe to help drive cold further south?? Arctic high I’m guessing??

    Cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    As others have said : GFS & GFSp both starting to give a slightly consistent signal for a slider with a chance of snow late next weekend. One to watch for sure...

    4D64D2CD-4B79-444F-85A6-0CC3E347A52C.png

    86BE53D8-E163-4C44-B90B-ACCA5E75070D.png

    9CDE1F7F-917B-4F44-92F4-DE138408B396.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    GEM too slider, same with EC, EC a bit north though surprisingly?

    gem-0-222.png?00

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Hi KT

    What should we be lookimg st in the models in the near timeframe to help drive cold further south?? Arctic high I’m guessing??

    Cheers

    Model wise, the longest fetch, sustained northerly we can get...looking at the current set up, initial northerly is sourced from the Low to the north east and isn't that cold, as the low fills and moves north east, the fetch is more northerly and the longer it is maintained the uppers get colder and colder until we get the perfect storm as other have posted above, when the Atlantic lows slide over the country. Just a little continuity this morning that this may just happen.

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