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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    That low won't be there anyway given the poor consistency in the modelling currently.

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Do you know if this low to the sw brings snow on the ECM?

    spacer.png

    It does not much namely across SW.

    C578F050-6FE9-4D87-ACDF-01EA38819BB9.thumb.png.f5e97d100a5a77a3f6b66072bb94693d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The gefs have 33% support for the op which includes the control at d8 but about 50% support for the ecm route. The ecm route cluster has variation on the theme and how progressive they are in getting there:

    gens_panel_yez5.png

    The gefs for London:

    graphe6_10000_309.43775939941406_153.46133422851562___.thumb.png.64739575d57d76776de9f6714222a4b7.pnggraphe3_10000_309.43775939941406_153.46133422851562___.thumb.png.349d48459e0fa2466f0f9d9ed748e83c.png

    They highlight that split at d8 and by d11 that underlying signal for a milder SW'ly flow becomes more apparent with Spring-like temps -v- colder (op & control cluster).

    Let us hope the gfs op is on the right track re trend as it has potential looking at the post d11 members with that signal. Otherwise a period of mild SW'lies is the alternative. A SW flow is not precluded even if we get a NH profile of mid-latitude cold but we would arguably be unlucky if that was the outcome!

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    Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    longest mean easterly for a long time !

    shame it isn’t seven hundred miles south ! 
     

    image.thumb.png.b87084131002b0aba6a518b81a2b3bb2.png

    700 miles in weather terms is not that far so all to play for 🙏🏻🤣🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, DEYS(Kent) said:

    700 miles in weather terms is not that far so all to play for 🙏🏻🤣🤪

    That’s the spirit!  I’d say the Scots are safe !

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    The Control is a very good run with snow popping up across the UK , it then get's it's silly head on from the 27th 

    image.thumb.png.fedd60a612fd7df9c5531ec0861bd074.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    A much better set of GEFS temp ens, this morning -- cold setting-in from around Day 5 and lasting for perhaps 6 days, before the wheels finally fall off::santa-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    And the NH profiles continue to develop:🤔

    npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

    npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

    And, should you want to know where we'll be, by Day 16, ask Alexa... she/it must have some reason to exist, right?😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    longest mean easterly for a long time !

    shame it isn’t seven hundred miles south ! 
     

    image.thumb.png.b87084131002b0aba6a518b81a2b3bb2.png

    When you ordered northern blocking, you didn`t say how far North...

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    longest mean easterly for a long time !

    shame it isn’t seven hundred miles south ! 
     

    image.thumb.png.b87084131002b0aba6a518b81a2b3bb2.png

    It may trend south with time ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Meanwhile, tonight and through Saturday there'll be some more snow for some. A rapid melt follows, but the UKV 6z brings lying snow into some of those parts who have yet to see any yet this winter. Just don't blink or you may miss it..

    Prec type:
    pt-anim.gif

    Snow accumulation:
    sd-amim.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    So we are halfway through winter and so far I have to say it’s been a great winter for chart viewing and we have seen some fab Synoptics... but away from the north east and high ground it has been largely snowless. It’s basically just been very average with some snow in Scotland and high ground in the north and occasional slush elsewhere. 

    looking at the models this morning it looks like more of the same. As above ensembles show there is a chance of some some short lived sleet or wet snow in Birmingham (which is 200m asl) and further north , but if you look at the below for London the op is a cold outlier at the Interesting part. We need a shift south (looking at the ecm) or a stronger block (GFS) to get some real cold and proper snow for most, otherwise we will be on track to just have a very average winter. I’ll keep posting the snow charts as and when they appear though ...as we can all dream

    89E353AC-ABA3-440E-B0A9-D0B74A161933.jpeg
    PS set your alarm early in the morning if you want to see some snow in the east in the morning...EAB3D53C-ACF8-4CEC-8F12-DDF623C90547.thumb.jpeg.fe5fe8109f4b4b5176eb051233722213.jpeg

    Looks like an upgrade on this run compared to yesterdays 12z!!not that im holding much hope lol!

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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    So we are halfway through winter and so far I have to say it’s been a great winter for chart viewing and we have seen some fab Synoptics... but away from the north east and high ground it has been largely snowless. It’s basically just been very average with some snow in Scotland and high ground in the north and occasional slush elsewhere. 

    looking at the models this morning it looks like more of the same. As above ensembles show there is a chance of some some short lived sleet or wet snow in Birmingham (which is 200m asl) and further north , but if you look at the below for London the op is a cold outlier at the Interesting part. We need a shift south (looking at the ecm) or a stronger block (GFS) to get some real cold and proper snow for most, otherwise we will be on track to just have a very average winter. I’ll keep posting the snow charts as and when they appear though ...as we can all dream

    89E353AC-ABA3-440E-B0A9-D0B74A161933.jpeg
    PS set your alarm early in the morning if you want to see some snow in the east in the morning...EAB3D53C-ACF8-4CEC-8F12-DDF623C90547.thumb.jpeg.fe5fe8109f4b4b5176eb051233722213.jpeg

    That’s not strictly true Tim, large parts of Northern and Western Wales were snowcovered last week for 5 days+. I think the pending ssw affects have raised our expectations a little too high. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    The wedge is a tiny bit stronger on the icon at 120.

    We are looking for this area circled to be held back west on the GFS at 144. The more of wedge we can get early doors the more the low will struggle to make eastern progress.

    iconnh-0-120 (20)~2.png

    iconnh-0-126 (10).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

    If you ask me I find the medium/long range charts pretty underwhelming considering we have a post SSW period coming up, of course models can swing towards better(or worse) but I see a broad westerly pattern generally in Europe, to me this does look like swinging towards 2019 scenario rather then 2018,2013 or 2006. I am kind of lucky to have gotten the 7 day cold spell in central Europe as things are looking average going forward(GEFS,EPS,EC46d) snow mostly confined to Scandinavia or high ground elsewhere(500m+) Of course February can still bring noteable stratospheric responses too, but also we have a strong shift of Nina to west based and also +IOD emerging(SE Europe ridge) The boundary between cold and mild will be hard to predict still,hoping for a change of models to better and trouging to be more to the east(not east Atlantic)

    20210115094342-a532b7b48b7b960e29eafc04a3bdaba0d53e3c74.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    but away from the north east and high ground it has been largely snowless

    Not true Tim, someone has already made comment about N Wales, the largest county in England was covered by snow yesterday, many areas of Scotland during this on-off cold spell have had snow lying. It has been a rather on-off cold spell for sure. The main problem in this thread is quite a lot of folk expecting too much based on not a great deal of science if I may say so. Synoptic outputs, and to some extent the charts I use, have waxed and waned with charts that suggested colder air than we got and more snow than we got, but many have enough experience to know how they should reactto these predictions. I suppose the chase takes over from logic.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Note the stagnant pattern west to east that holds up the trough in our longtitude is also stalling upstream and driving the undercut of the Atlantic trough as that trough disrupts off the ESB

    the greeny ridge/wedge may well be a strat imprint from above and the stalling esb trough then generates some WAA to maintain the trop ridge in situ 

    then add in the Arctic ridge to the overall equation as a consequence of the reverse flow and downwelling wave and its a tough solution to model! 

     

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