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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    image.thumb.png.fc7ad48dbe080143de3f96df80cdd823.png

    less danger of a west based -NAO here. However it is certainly different to previous runs. Certainly on the cold side with a northerly flow from the Arctic.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
    5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    That‘s better a sharper and cleaner northerly flow, northerlies don’t excite me but if we can get some good cold established then a little channel runner and it would be a snow maker.

    0DB8A987-2CAA-4857-AE19-26C8A66B8A3D.thumb.png.e6dd9d7d3bb9771fe46f95428b840cfb.png

     

     

    It depends, could be decent if there’s some frontal snow involved . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well then, with the models, the experts and the pundits all in such unanimous agreement, I'm off to bed. G'night all!👍😁

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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
    1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

    I would describe this winter so far as Synoptic Heaven but Surface Hell. 

    It's an interesting point because it just illustrates the fine margins on our little island. Up here it's been a fantastic Winter, with todays snow being the 4th and best so far. Fingers crossed everyone else can get in on the act. We are certainly in a better position now than most years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Scrappy Doo chart makes a welcome reappearance on the 18z GFS //:

    A996F5CA-70AB-4470-A3E8-8E80000DD4DE.thumb.png.c353a18f05de41f17e1a981702965a8e.png

    But, forgetting local weather, just look at how messed up the trop vortex is, and this isn’t going to change any time soon.  Just need to drop lucky, but we’ve been saying that for a while...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    And the difference between this run and the 12hrs highlights the reality that post day ten output on the GFS may aswell have been plucked out of a hat.

    It’s one of my major irritations ! Why do they bother with GFS ops past day ten when nearly every run throws up a different solution .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
    4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    I feel like I’ve been looking at charts like this that have consistently been 10 days away since late November.😂

    870B546C-3D28-488D-BBD9-508C93FA44CF.png

    Although the building blocks were in place by day 6 so it’s counting down we just need not look further than 144 and the consensus is a trough east of uk and heights west/North west surface conditions will change between now and then in terms of how the colder air lines up, but the trend today is positive from a cold perspective. I just feel it will upgrade from here on in. Cold is coming 🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Without going into chart details GFS pub run heading towards a colder outlook .

    We all wait to see if this is just a continuation of the flip flop charts that seem to be 

    an ever ending process or something that will show on 24hrs to 48 hrs that we could finally 

    believe perhaps.

     

     

     

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    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Scrappy Doo chart makes a welcome reappearance on the 18z GFS //:

    A996F5CA-70AB-4470-A3E8-8E80000DD4DE.thumb.png.c353a18f05de41f17e1a981702965a8e.png

    But, forgetting local weather, just look at how messed up the trop vortex is, and this isn’t going to change any time soon.  Just need to drop lucky, but we’ve been saying that for a while...

     

    Look at the unusual pattern of isobars between Iceland and NW Scotland - it looks like the isobars cross over one another on NW coast of Scotland. Usually the isobars blend in their path from one high or low pressure to the next. I think the highly unusual & conflicting signals are causing great difficulty for the algorithms. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Look at the unusual pattern of isobars between Iceland and NW Scotland - it looks like the isobars cross over one another on NW coast of Scotland. Usually the isobars blend in their path from one high or low pressure to the next. I think the highly unusual & conflicting signals are causing great difficulty for the algorithms. 

    The isobars will never ever cross over each other, but they might become close to look like they do, especially on a NH chart.  Here’s the Europe chart at same time to show what’s actually happening:

    35FEE410-43C2-4B16-88E3-90C9578FF713.thumb.jpeg.8661e88d2e9f68fd4297af8bee3a915f.jpeg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Another solid Control run out to day 8.

    image.thumb.png.32a52016e458bc96d171c4c23169cb15.png

    Very similar to it's 12z run, good consistency I would say.

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    19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    The isobars will never ever cross over each other, but they might become close to look like they do, especially on a NH chart.  Here’s the Europe chart at same time to show what’s actually happening:

    35FEE410-43C2-4B16-88E3-90C9578FF713.thumb.jpeg.8661e88d2e9f68fd4297af8bee3a915f.jpeg

    Thanks for the chart and clarification

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    I think the thoughts of any cold moving east was from about end of the month. So those 2m temp anomalies go with that thought too. Maybe last into Feb too. 

    Temperature anomalies are not great for the far south on any of the charts, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Well we have reached mid point of winter, entering the coldest part of winter traditionally it’s this side which tends to deliver a lot more further south. This is maybe the oddest winter I’ve ever known, there’s been other winters which were very frustrating in that cold charts never happened, well so far this winter in London I’ve had more below average days than above. We have had cold patterns just not accompanied cold air to go with them, so very frustrating, the dew points have been a huge problem and that boils down to a relatively warm North Sea and a lack of cold source to air mass . It’s looking the AO and NAO will have been negative throughout January that’s very unusual persistency, seems baffling to me how difficult it seems to get deep cold our way still. Maybe what we need is MJO help to give a boost in blocking ect, we have heard very little about MJO this winter but we know it’s more common in La Niña years for there to be less Pacific help. 

    8A8C5C78-E6B4-4B0B-A632-AA7DC7911547.thumb.png.6be1aaf14178be47e2dde456ad287ea8.png866AC56A-66E1-4E50-A83B-2D3B513780D4.thumb.png.d8cfeb556d44eaa3b6c0887aab30579b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    Scrappy Doo chart makes a welcome reappearance on the 18z GFS //:

    A996F5CA-70AB-4470-A3E8-8E80000DD4DE.thumb.png.c353a18f05de41f17e1a981702965a8e.png

    But, forgetting local weather, just look at how messed up the trop vortex is, and this isn’t going to change any time soon.  Just need to drop lucky, but we’ve been saying that for a while...

     

    I think it looks more like a rabbit or an hare lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

    Some great charts showing up @ 9 days! 🤐 

    Trending back colder again. 🤞GFS18z shows it could be about to get it on soon.

    Max temps234-582UK.thumb.gif.c60e7ccc0db3a47427eda6fd10e9bc35.gifMin temps234-583UK.thumb.gif.727d7cb9a55e77a665bac4e91d5b484d.gifSnow showers pushing inland!❄❄216-779UK.thumb.gif.d641bc3a608f5271f557a0698f023ebf.gifBitter windchill🥶216-290UK.thumb.gif.b8a1535c4e9ca3d9d118d4220f8a81f5.gif

    -11 850s showing228-7UK.thumb.gif.a2de590ac8d7525cff738a8814e0f278.gif

    A little cherry picked🍒, but plenty on the tree! 

    Looking 👀 good!

    All JFF obviously. But thats what the chase is all about!

    Hope it long continues, maybe even upgrades🙏🙏

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