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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, cold snap said:

    Well that's a interesting update 

    Hello.. in what way please? I really struggle with those charts and even if could understand did not see previous version.

     

    thanks

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin
    5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Hello.. in what way please? I really struggle with those charts and even if could understand did not see previous version.

     

    thanks

    Greenland blocking looking more structured

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    Posted
  • Location: Lakes
  • Location: Lakes
    1 minute ago, cold snap said:

    Greenland blocking looking more structured

    And the Pacific/ Arctic highs merging?

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    Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin
    1 minute ago, MOF said:

    And the Pacific/ Arctic highs merging?

    Hard to tell.

    Blocking not gone . That's the bread of butter of it. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Early days but this latest Gfs run is ever so slightly more amplified than previous and weaker Iceland low. Small earlier differences can be magnified later

    Looks pretty similar out to 144 to my eyes.. 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    It’s unfortunate how close the U.K. and Ireland (so you don’t attack me 😉 ) came to a very cold easterly if other things went favourably today could have seen start of a proper cold spell.

    3BEE0B4C-8F77-4D5A-9DA1-20CD346CA3ED.thumb.png.a2bd05fcb159e09d5c8d60c151aa20da.png4F4AA996-720A-418C-B12A-3642F9CCD060.thumb.png.77a6dcf0e0b8475e25882e1adfef0a1a.png
     

    I’m not noticing much a diffrence at T132 makes a change to see some consistency.

    08C25D38-5A2F-4226-9094-DB640DE5B3D7.thumb.png.410dab19504d4ffca2434c7b6632eb48.png4D2D6DC9-9940-47F3-A57F-2DB2C0BB381A.thumb.png.d7f0958619a6618a4b53f03c1e1def6c.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    12z ensembles, for comparison with the 18z when they come out. 12Z were trending colder than recent suites.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

    Looks pretty similar out to 144 to my eyes.. 🙂

    Yep looks like those small gains have been neutralised lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

    2DD7BEEF-4090-4B73-ABD2-2B2337957887.thumb.png.21144c32fd16a43a39aefdcd31313e12.png00B83A3B-C7FB-40FD-BE3B-31E4A49D7477.thumb.png.c751eb8027ac4bba1abb5c1aa074b6fa.png

    We are going to have to feel our way with this one as the models are doing.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    When I was wee, like 9, I'd trace maps of GB umpteen times (on my mother's greaseproof paper) and then draw fantastical synoptic weather-patterns on them; and there were almost invariably both a Scandi-Iceland HP and a European low in evidence!

    My parents thought I was mad... But, what If I were merely anticipating this thread -- albeit 55-years ago? Once a nerd, always a nerd!😁

    Omg GC, i was the same!...but shamefully i was in my late teens (late 80's) and drawing 'Ian Mcaskill style weather maps' with the 'stick-on' heavy snow symbols...on my employer's toilet cubicle wall... 😂

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

    Classic flip coming up with some insane runs next week. And also some very mild wet solutions or just cold and wet.  The additional vortex split will not be helpful to much clarity on a run by run basis.  Time to reduce frequency of checking, its wasted time for a few days yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Now this is starting to look interesting at days 7/8.  Heights have moved east, this *maybe* good

    image.thumb.png.c2c256dba85185c7cfd0360c0eebb626.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, TallPaul said:

    Omg GC, i was the same!...but shamefully i was in my late teens (late 80's) and drawing 'Ian Mcaskill style weather maps' with the 'stick-on' heavy snow symbols...on my employer's toilet cubicle wall... 😂

     

    That's amazing TP, I've always thought I was the only one... But, based on all the reactions my post is getting, there are many more of us 'afflicted ones', out there?!:santa-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    A solid effort from the pub run at bringing in a decent northerly later next week. Hopefully we can build on this further tomorrow.

    474F2261-DC27-4BB1-AC87-2C3A61210F18.thumb.png.405dd17d8bdec70cc3f13b21dae84ce1.png381882C4-8DAF-4EAB-B8CC-55D35DCAFD18.thumb.png.2a27bd61ab6cb37238ad8c7b7d26edde.png

     

     

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Yep looks like those small gains have been neutralised lol

    Neutralisation reversed lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snow, hot & thundery!
  • Location: Plymouth, 7m asl.
    Just now, General Cluster said:

    That's amazing TP, I've always thought I was the only one... But, based on all the reactions my post is getting, there are many more of us 'afflicted ones', out there?!:santa-emoji:

    The can of worms have well and truly been opened...and the truth is coming out from far a field...😂😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    That‘s better a sharper and cleaner northerly flow, northerlies don’t excite me but if we can get some good cold established then a little channel runner and it would be a snow maker.

    0DB8A987-2CAA-4857-AE19-26C8A66B8A3D.thumb.png.e6dd9d7d3bb9771fe46f95428b840cfb.png

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS pub run delivering a stonker again, T198:

    15E5CE74-2839-42E0-9C52-014D9F266760.thumb.png.83d8c4e6c797ddcc68035ad278eac4b6.pngE014B899-254F-4BB7-8FFA-E789A16A6D4C.thumb.png.15bc32b28ed2afe8890696e11ef85e0f.png

    And colder air to come in the northerly, it’s good that the models are strongly saying these evolutions are on the table...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    Neutralisation reversed lol

    You should have held your nerve for two more minutes 😄

    Still looking good out to 204

    image.thumb.png.089fe737eb317f1fb61a226056b8ed8c.png

    The Para at 162 is an improvement also

    image.thumb.png.5890c50fbe29b9bbcd6b8e36eea14ed7.png

    Will any of these 'gains' survive the massacre of the overnight runs?????

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    Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Feb 2018 Easterly
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

    2DD7BEEF-4090-4B73-ABD2-2B2337957887.thumb.png.21144c32fd16a43a39aefdcd31313e12.png00B83A3B-C7FB-40FD-BE3B-31E4A49D7477.thumb.png.c751eb8027ac4bba1abb5c1aa074b6fa.png

     

     

    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

    2DD7BEEF-4090-4B73-ABD2-2B2337957887.thumb.png.21144c32fd16a43a39aefdcd31313e12.png00B83A3B-C7FB-40FD-BE3B-31E4A49D7477.thumb.png.c751eb8027ac4bba1abb5c1aa074b6fa.png

    We are going to have to feel our way with this one as the models are doing.  

    Perfect Response Mike, With THE SSW event and it's effects still in evolution (if that's the right terminology) changes have already happened at the point of the daily run releases...what we see with with our eyes and read...much more is changing above our heads and at a greater rate...I think even T120 is to far to call..but that's my opinion. Only an opinion folks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    When I was wee, like 9, I'd trace maps of GB umpteen times (on my mother's greaseproof paper) and then draw fantastical synoptic weather-patterns on them; and there were almost invariably both a Scandi-Iceland HP and a European low in evidence!

    My parents thought I was mad... But, what If I were merely anticipating this thread -- albeit 55-years ago? Once a nerd, always a nerd!😁

    Ha love this post, I was drawing such maps well into my teens! Kept me out of trouble, and yes it was always a winter chart featuring snow and freezing cold weather. I remember drawing maps when I was about 6 with sun symbols.. 

    Back to the models, more variance today, as said the models are in a frenzy at present, so much going on, very difficult to pinpoint how things may pan out.

    The trend in the nearer term is for low heights to transfer down from Iceland into the N Sea and for a colder feed from  between north and west, this has been the trend for many days but the difference now is suggestion of less depth of cold due to lack of sufficient mid atlantic ridge heading towards Greenland. Alas outlook looks like a continuation of a negative NAO with low heights to our SW on an increasingly southerly tracking jet, UK locked on the polar side. Can see why some are saying battleground situation with tropical maritime air trying to oust aside the polar air, but the latter looks like it will continue to gain the upper hand thanks to strong heights over the Pole and to our NW.

    For those wanting something substantively colder, hopes will need to be pinned on the trough moving sufficiently east to be sucked into the cold trough to our NE, this then plunging into Europe this would allow for a significantly colder NE/N flow and possible easterly onslaught as low pressure advances in from the south.

    We are at mid-point in the winter (Dec - Feb), though I always add 3 weeks on (21 March) in terms of when possible very cold wintry weather can still occur, and so far it has been a superb winter for model watching, full of interest.. and the most interesting since 12/13... so far. Thank goodness in these tortuous days of having isolate, we are not looking at watching paint dry models..

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.39d31933cff88119bc77888ef0501e4e.png

    Well into FI but much better for the UK 

    image.thumb.png.3369ecc3cc681ff1045352737ecebb60.png

     

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