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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Meteociel ECM mean seems to have not come through.

    Here's the view from wetter at 144 and 240.

    Lots of Arctic blocking

    Wide spread 850mb temps on the graph at the end.

     

    ECMAVGNH12_144_1.png

    ECMAVGNH12_240_1.png

    london_ecmsd850 (3).png

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    Hmm, been watching this Greeny high and to me if anything it has moved more East (favourable if you want cold). This still has to develop so I wouldn`t be chucking my eggs into it`s a nailed on West based -NAO basket quite yet.

    ECH1-216.png

    gensnh-0-1-216.png

    Its not just about the ridge going into greenland it is how the low pressure circulates around that and that lower pressure is moving east to west into the atlantic and thats where the problem lays

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    F3DAB059-55D2-43EB-9C5E-5CC55A92F5A4.thumb.jpeg.71f6c9b2afd2bffdbe94ef768075bf8b.jpeg

    .... and ECM 12z a brief spell of heavy snow in southeastern parts before turning back to rain, given how awful it has been for us I’d gladly take it, East Anglia most favoured. You lot up north can’t begin to understand our pain/frustration so if this goes t*ts up I might adopt a knocker stance.... and I’m pointing at you midlands folks as well spread the love. 😉 

    C5CB7F44-0BE8-428C-A62E-FF42FB497AF5.thumb.png.7dfd3882fc8b8c7e4ff737cb6f6bcfd8.png

     

    Would be nice if at least some modelled snow actually came to fruition down here eh?

    After today’s let down, you can understand the scepticism!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Although the NH pattern looks good at 240, i don't get the feeling there will be very many members that deliver a lot of snow to the UK on the EPS extended.

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    9 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    In spite of the fairly solid pattern of meridional flow the 500 mb charts show, I posted earlier this link to the ECMWF output does not

    http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

    So which will be nearer the actual weather pattern in 6+ days time?

    I have to say I do not know. I cannot recall seeing the anomaly charts so consistently showing a meridional flow without the weather following what they suggest. The ECMWF output is something that has only recently become available, so I have no idea how reliable it is. I do have to say though that I am beginning to wonder if it is not doing better, at the moment, than the anomaly charts?

    See for yourselves, the anomaly charts were posted earlier but I'll drop them in here for an easier comparison

    The 8-14 NOAA carries on with the meridional flow and it shows a pattern in the far west that one would expect to support the pattern in the UK area.

     

    After the cut & thrust of winter is over, it would be great if you were able to do an educational post regarding how to interpret the newly available ECMWF charts to which you refer in the attached post.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Meteociel ECM mean seems to have not come through.

    Here's the view from wetter at 144 and 240.

    Lots of Arctic blocking

    Wide spread 850mb temps on the graph at the end.

     

    ECMAVGNH12_144_1.png

    ECMAVGNH12_240_1.png

    london_ecmsd850 (3).png

    The graphical plot is interesting,  at first glance you'd think we were all going warm at the end..... but with the current pattern its a fine line between warm and cold... here's the corresponding operational for day 10. 

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    I doubt there will be many cold lovers disliking this 7 day chart, especially if you see where the air is sourced from. I did say day 7, not the infamous 10...

    gensnh-0-1-174.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Ext EPS trending less cold - the mean suggests colder than average in the north and milder than average in the south.  No deep cold.

    Iberian / Mediterranean heights the issue.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    1 minute ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    After the cut & thrust of winter is over, it would be great if you were able to do an educational post regarding how to interpret the newly available ECMWF charts to which you refer in the attached post.

    okay, I'll try, please remind me

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Ext EPS trending less cold - the mean suggests colder than average in the north and milder than average in the south.  No deep cold.

    Iberian / Mediterranean heights the issue.

     

    Hello.. when you say trending less cold is that for this particular run as we get further into the extended? Or is the trend over a series of runs ?

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    Skandi, high?

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    @chionomaniac

    You used a perfect word, pause.

    Still a lot to play for.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I thought the SSW was nearly 2 weeks ago now? Should the models not have a handle on that now? 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    1 minute ago, iceman1991 said:

    So from outside view reading post over last couple days on models it’s gunna be next winter now for snow especially for us southerners so frustrating really thought we were on on to something couple weeks ago when we had dusting Down here 

    Not sure what your point is tbh. It's mid January and your ona bout "us southerners" graphics show its milder and hotter in summer. In respect to the model output and nhp atm there's nothing in the reliable to say or show the south wont get any wintry weather between now and the end of March. See how it pans out or maybe move to the shetlands? Enjoy the SSW and its meanderings. You can't change it 🙏🙏🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    I thought the SSW was nearly 2 weeks ago now? Should the models not have a handle on that now? 🤔

    Around 10 days... impacts to trop mostly after 14 days, sometimes even more...

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    I thought the SSW was nearly 2 weeks ago now? Should the models not have a handle on that now? 🤔

    I still think the medium term is way off nailed and the models have yet to grip it, and we’ll see a sudden flip around day 7 to much more blocking around Greenland or to the NE !! 
    I feel coldies for once may get a sudden swing in their favour. 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

     

    I think there are a number of directions the models can go after this point,

    Well quite a large cluster on the GEFS are going in a fairly promising direction, if nothing jaw dropping, even for the South, however, we are going to need a shift in the EPS soon else all it will be is a repeat of today's slushfest.

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    Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
    1 minute ago, swfc said:

    Not sure what your point is tbh. It's mid January and your ona bout "us southerners" graphics show its milder and hotter in summer. In respect to the model output and nhp atm there's nothing in the reliable to say or show the south wont get any wintry weather between now and the end of March. See how it pans out or maybe move to the shetlands? Enjoy the SSW and its meanderings. You can't change it 🙏🙏🙏

    Can’t move Shetland cause of Covid look which is such a shame but hopefully something happend but just can’t see it through  reading posts about models

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    EC46. Northern blocking. UK/ Netherlands on the edge.

    20210114203028-6019cfb2b8ac6d21cd4352778fc1532776afedc8.png

    20210114203018-37f6a648b193e5965fd3ecb002d88b420b8b011d.png

    20210114203010-3c05321d5e8e0d039e335c372572104007e25b9a.png

    20210114203000-6ad01e0a4326b036bb46788ec969113eb6e97874.png

    20210114202951-b8b3e726569a2b2dfc7668a7d399cff10dc5f580.png

    20210114202941-0fc136715e672c110f949be0e2eefa2348543a91.png

    I think the thoughts of any cold moving east was from about end of the month. So those 2m temp anomalies go with that thought too. Maybe last into Feb too. 

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