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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

    Another consideration is that if the next few runs show Trough East of UK then as per Alex deakin & met office thoughts we are in a better position for last 7 days of January to get a north/north easterly wind direction.Along with a Southerly jet(preferably another 100 miles further south) then chances of more widespread wintry hazards MAY arise.
     

    Certainly a more positive  feel to the models and let’s hope we and the models can build some consistency and momentum going forward.As was shown today you don’t need massive negative uppers to get 6 inches of snow as Yorkshire,other parts of the North and Scotland proved today.Give me -6 uppers and DPs of 0/-1 and I would take my chances in the potential set up showing.

    4A5631A2-137D-41E1-9393-BD3345649F37.png

    Let’s hope so, as we’ve been in a good position all month!

    Steps in the right direction this evening. Be good to see the ECM ensembles later.

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    Ok, I have a bit of an update. Looks like the correction westward for today got the predicted snowfall about right . Nowcasting really comes into its own for this weekend. The team think another corre

    Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to in

    I have had it once in October and again December the 30th. Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caugh

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The ecm at d9 represents one of the main clusters on the gefs, about 33% show this solution. The bad news is those that are showing that were poor runs right through to d16; the good news, the members going similar to the 12z gfs op (or better) at d8 moved to the cold grouping:

    London>graphe6_10000_311.5631103515625_152.4429473876953___.thumb.png.55b65cd99b0c4cabe5087fb99e5776e5.png

    Def want the gfs solution, but too early to call either route a trend, the ops may simply be spinning through the clusters until the music stops? 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    4 bloomin days that barrell trough has to our east... Is there anything realistic that could happen to get it to bugger off a little south east or stretch it's leg in situ.

    But is that realistic in itself ?For 4 days it just doesn’t move.I don’t know the answer as not knowledgeable enough but would be genuinely interested if someone could advise me if that trough literally remaining stagnant for that length of time is plausible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    Positive ECM tonight. Look for the entire arctic area to be modelled with stronger heights nearer the time. Vortex on its knees. Can't see a quick recovery from here.

    Going to be marginal snow events before day 9 at best.

    Extended EPS should make interesting viewing... I'm sure someone will give us a snippet of them

     

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent

    It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    ECM is still catching up but 144 is really our limit , the next 10 -14 days will snow for areas in the UK that's for sure .

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    More than enough to play with on tonight's runs. Remember the op are only one of a range of possibilities within an envelope of solutions Going forward I would expect to see that envelope include options with the whole pattern pushed further south as the Arctic high and the Siberian vortex come into play. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Positive ECM tonight. Look for the entire arctic area to be modelled with stronger heights nearer the time. Vortex on its knees. Can't see a quick recovery from here.

    Going to be marginal snow events before day 9 at best.

    Extended EPS should make interesting viewing... I'm sure someone will give us a snippet of them

     

    I'm struggling to see the positives. It lookS like we miss out yet again.  It could improve down the line, but it feels like we are being led up the garden path yet again.

    Edited by Bricriu
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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    What years on this forum from mainly viewing as opposed to trying to contribute is don’t look too far ahead and so this evening upto 144 the UK is in a better position to have below average temperatures.Now the devil is in the detail as always but it is just a hunch ,but the Arctic High could become more prominent and if it does then that may help us going forward.Just a hint that it could link up with GH and if this becomes a trend it may help us in the latter third of January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, Bricriu said:

    I'm struggling to see the positives. It look like we miss out yet again.  It could improve down the line, but it feels like we are being led up the garden path yet again.

    Perhaps, it's not great in the near term and nothing is ever certain, but the predicted Arctic rises on the GEFS at range is a strong signal, hoping EPS show this too.

    Like catcacol says maybe come back in a few days and it may become clearer, especially if we lose MJO phase 3 interference

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    16 minutes ago, Jason H said:

    It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.

    I never put my head on the chopping board but remember this date and what the charts are showing! I am so confident that ne USA will be in a bitterly cold pattern in the next 10 days and most the UK will be bathed in average temperarures due to a west based negative NAO at best i will run down my garding chanting to pepper pig naked. We need to face facts that the possible cold period from the 20th has now been pushed back significantly if at all!

    Also as stated by many other members the heights over iberia are preventing cold uppers to flood south to effect most the UK unless you live up a hill firther north 

    Edited by Frostbite1980
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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

    image.thumb.png.486e510743810023aa809c517c91fb71.png Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Where is the snow line on ukmo 48 hour fax chart?looks slightly different to ecm?!

    Forget it mate. It aint worth it honestly!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    I never put my head on the chopping board but remember this date and what the charts are showing! I am so confident that ne USA will be in a bitterly cold pattern in the next 10 days and most the UK will be bathed in average temperarures due to a west based negative NAO at best i will run down my garding chanting to pepper pig naked. We need to face facts that the possible cold period from the 20th has now been pushed back significantly if at all!

    Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though...🤣. However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, Jason H said:

    Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though...🤣. However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.

    Totally agree mate i am just going on trends and those trends arnt great if you want sustained cold in the UK 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

    image.thumb.png.486e510743810023aa809c517c91fb71.png Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

    Is it though?  Move that high south and everything would be coming from the east.

    36826C6B-F3E0-47B6-A656-6B8D96C73E23.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Is it though?  Move that high south and everything would be coming from the east.

    36826C6B-F3E0-47B6-A656-6B8D96C73E23.png

    True lots to be  resolved, nobody can call anything yet including the met going by their one size fits all update!

    Edited by Snowmut
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    Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
    11 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

    image.thumb.png.486e510743810023aa809c517c91fb71.png Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

    Good job its way into Fantasy island territory and will look completely diffrent on the next run i would put FI around 72 hours at present with the current SSW and further warmings causing caos with the models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    Comparing today's EC 12Z with yesterday's 12Z, it's fairly similar up to today's 120h, but from that point on seemingly small differences lead to considerable differences at 240h. So 144h is FI already.
    The Arctic and Russia, the Atlantic and North America, all very different. No changes in the big picture though.

    I doubt if the ensembles will be much of a help at the later timeframes in this situation. They will probably pick up the correct solution even later than the high res operational.

    For example, I was just looking at the De Bilt plume that came out January 9. I saved it for future reference, because it was the coldest yet. See below.
    Just five days later the whole thing is different, compare the two for next Wednesday, the 20th.
    On Saturday, almost all members stayed below 5C, this morning's ensemble is almost entirely above 5C.
    Not even one member was as warm as what is now the mean for that day.

    Ensembles flip. They really do.
    So do not despair coldies, that deep cold that is not in any ensemble, might become reality once day 14 arrives.
    Or not!

    Pluim_9jan.png

    Pluim_14jan.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    After wheeching through the 12Z GEFS ens, a sequence (at least for about 9 days) is becoming clear: cold crap, mild crap, cold crap, mild crap...cold? Nailed!:santa-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    And, to make matters worse, it's too cold for my other hobby: image.thumb.png.bed4637e80842e201a2602f59c40f6a0.png    🥶

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    15 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

    That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

    image.thumb.png.486e510743810023aa809c517c91fb71.png Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

    I know that wouldn't bring nationwide snow but that's not a bad chart imo, especially if the low out west can disrupt se. Its probably wont be right anyway.  Yes, not been good for the south........yet but it's better than zonal mild mush.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    41 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    And all of those warning of a west based negative NAO got shot down! Sure there will be many no its down to....or its due to.... but the risk was there and now its looking like the most likely scenario 

    Hmm, been watching this Greeny high and to me if anything it has moved more East (favourable if you want cold). This still has to develop so I wouldn`t be chucking my eggs into it`s a nailed on West based -NAO basket quite yet.

    ECH1-216.png

    gensnh-0-1-216.png

    Edited by Stuie W
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    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    After wheeching through the 12Z GEFS ens, a sequence (at least for about 9 days) is becoming clear: cold crap, mild crap, cold crap, mild crap...cold? Nailed!:santa-emoji:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    And, to matters worse, it's too cold for my other hobby: image.thumb.png.bed4637e80842e201a2602f59c40f6a0.png    🥶

    Your not still looking for that 5p you dropped last year!😬 you can take the Man out of Scotland' but you can never take the Scotland out of the Man!👍

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