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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Just now, chris55 said:

    EC 168. 

    Pattern being forced south, nothing extreme, but nice to see.

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    850s horrendous. 

    Because of the circular nature of the North Sea low we cannot tap into the really cold air and it's pumping warm air into central Europe and mixing everything out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

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    393E8CCC-881B-41CE-956B-71D55C40EB30.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    9 minutes ago, Griff said:

    144... 

    Differences rather than similarities? 

    ECH1-144.gif

    UN144-21.gif

    Bearing in mind where we were 24 hours ago I would take either of them as that would put us in a better position than we were yesterday.No point looking any further but at least trends of gfs ecm UKMO and Gem all fairly similar.Just wish the trough would just push Se A bit quicker but models having digested first warming now working out implications of second warming?

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC 192

    Atlantic looks held up.......

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 minute ago, chris55 said:

    EC 192

    Atlantic looks held up.......

    spacer.png

    Could be a good run, similar to GFS 12z

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Arctic high trying to sneak into Greenland at 192hrs.?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

    To answer my own question - I think a low pressure runs through along the south between the two frames in question. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

    The low is round, if it was to lose intensity and disrupt it would improve the 850’s👍

    4C65F392-1603-4911-8D0A-72685383F390.png

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    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    850s horrendous. 

    Because of the circular nature of the North Sea low we cannot tap into the really cold air and it's pumping warm air into central Europe and mixing everything out.

    850s are between -1 and -6C , roughly,  (horrendous, fantastic that's subjective.) Im just commenting on the run.

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    EC 192

    Atlantic looks held up.......

    spacer.png

    Nearly a link up of Arctic High and Greenland High/Ridge there!That may help but I am getting way ahead of myself as shouldn’t look past 120-144 in reality!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    216h, not looking good. Erosion of the Greenland high, pressure remains low between Norway and Iceland and not moving at all. The position of the Arctic high is not beneficial 😏

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

    46375A10-7243-4A28-A181-6DF1E6A49ADA.png

    7D7FC8A0-6E8F-49CB-BA16-0713A181D90D.png

    393E8CCC-881B-41CE-956B-71D55C40EB30.gif

    UKMO much more similar to ECM apart from with the heights to our south slightly higher over the Meditteranean, good to have a positive 12z suite (up to this stage/ semi semi reliable) except for GEM

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    850s are between -1 and -6C , roughly,  (horrendous, fantastic that's subjective.) Im just commenting on the run.

    spacer.png

    I'm nearer the coldest air than most.

    In the last 'cold spell' under similar synoptics I reached +6c with uppers of -6c at 500 feet.

    The long sea track from Northern Norway over the above average sea is reducing the uppers quickly.

    The lack of sea ice not helping.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Relieved to see ECM budge having been so stubborn for several runs.

    Sizeable jump close to the UKMO-GFS group. It’s important because it shows that adjustments toward a better placed trough by the UK and slower trough progression out west of us both have some merit.

    I know it's too far in FI... 

    But surely this could still be poor? 

    ECH1-216.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    image.thumb.png.aef239b4b645d3eaa21bfb09e954c075.png

    Gentlemen we have closure

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    Signs at 216 over the siberian vortex trying to head back west again. 

    I still think that extra warming could have flushed down some additional westerlies just at the wrong time. 

    Hopefully we see the atlantic lows slow down and the vortex back on the move to us.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    I know it's too far in FI... 

    But surely this could still be poor? 

    ECH1-216.gif

    4 bloomin days that barrell trough has to our east... Is there anything realistic that could happen to get it to bugger off a little south east or stretch it's leg in situ.

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    Another consideration is that if the next few runs show Trough East of UK then as per Alex deakin & met office thoughts we are in a better position for last 7 days of January to get a north/north easterly wind direction.Along with a Southerly jet(preferably another 100 miles further south) then chances of more widespread wintry hazards MAY arise.
     

    Certainly a more positive  feel to the models and let’s hope we and the models can build some consistency and momentum going forward.As was shown today you don’t need massive negative uppers to get 6 inches of snow as Yorkshire,other parts of the North and Scotland proved today.Give me -6 uppers and DPs of 0/-1 and I would take my chances in the potential set up showing.

    4A5631A2-137D-41E1-9393-BD3345649F37.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Business as usual then at day 10.😄

     

    ECH101-240.thumb.png.636dab00f0ca2075aa962773ad8bf64f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    A good ecm run if you like cold rain, unfortunately the pattern is really not moving between day 5 and 10, you end up in a literal rinse and repeat cycle until phasing stops for long enough that the low finally disrupts, which it does start too at day 10 but all the cold air is well away from us and flooding into the Atlantic again. Frustrating period of model watching for me, and rubbish weather on the ground to go with it

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

    46375A10-7243-4A28-A181-6DF1E6A49ADA.png

    7D7FC8A0-6E8F-49CB-BA16-0713A181D90D.png

    393E8CCC-881B-41CE-956B-71D55C40EB30.gif

    Sensible post.  Even those charts are in FI. Improved Operational's tonight for those hunting further winter weather. The ensembles looking better too. Interestometer up to a 6/10.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Another underwhelming ECM run with the troughing unable to clear se . We really wanted that troughing to flatten out and edge se .

    Althought the day ten looks interesting from a NH perspective the pattern is too far north and more energy needs to disrupt into Southern Europe .

    The best that can be said is its a slight improvement compared to some of the previous crud it dished out !

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    anim_ubb8.gif
     

    Whilst still not overly inspiring for the U.K. It is still an improvement over past runs and only a few tweaks could allow cold air to dig further south into the UK and Europe with any incoming low tracking further south. One thing that has become apparent is we are less likely to see the Canadian trough cut away from the Arctic that could risk losing the Greenland high, so subtly shifting the -NAO a little further east (Greenland instead of the Hudson Bay on the previous run)

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