Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[KTtom]

5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM ext MJO to the 18thh of Feb...

i will take that.

Blimey, thought I was on the Covid thread!

 

Quick question, am I right that putting other factors to one side, phases 6 and 7 favour western blocking, the stronger the phase the more rhobust the block?

We need another shot of something, looking like lows incomming again next week, one thing I am surprised at because the forecasts have been hinting of stalling pattern for some considerable time now but nothing showing up in the model output? 

UKMO keeps the colder conditions going until Monday but withought any signs of heights to the east and heights to the north west, too far north west,  the next Atlantic systemlooks primed to join yesterdays ECM and push east through the country pushing any remaining cold over the UK north.

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by KTtom

[northwestsnow]

GFS 00Z offers wintry potential on and off right through.

 

[bluearmy]

5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM ext MJO to the 18thh of Feb...

i will take that.

Maybe that’s what’s behind the decent February on height anoms rather than the model seeing downwelling waves ? 

[bluearmy]

I have no Dp comments on the n edge snowfall on ec’s sat evening channel runner ....

It won’t verify in that position though ....

[Duane S.]

Please allow me this small divergence mods...

I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to incredible lightheadedness, I even managed to collapse and knock myself out on one occasion, ridiculously cold all the time, completely lost my appetite for over a week, in bed for 23 hours a day, unbelievably painful muscle aches and body tenderness. To put it into perspective, I stopped looking at the charts and started wishing for warming weather for goodness sake!

Very much wishing @Scott Ingham and his mum all the very best, it really is a horrific illness, one that took everything out of me. I’m in the bottom priority group for vaccines and believe me, my arm will be there, ready, the very second I get my invitation! 

Anyway, I’m pleased to say (and am extremely grateful) that I seem to be on the mend and back getting my head back around the output for the second half of winter 20/21. Certainly very interesting going towards the end of this month and into February. Notwithstanding much interest this week for those further north as well.

 

[BARRY]

9 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Please allow me this small divergence mods...

I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to incredible lightheadedness, I even managed to collapse and knock myself out on one occasion, ridiculously cold all the time, completely lost my appetite for over a week, in bed for 23 hours a day, unbelievably painful muscle aches and body tenderness. To put it into perspective, I stopped looking at the charts and started wishing for warming weather for goodness sake!

Very much wishing @Scott Ingham and his mum all the very best, it really is a horrific illness, one that took everything out of me. I’m in the bottom priority group for vaccines and believe me, my arm will be there, ready, the very second I get my invitation! 

Anyway, I’m pleased to say (and am extremely grateful) that I seem to be on the mend and back getting my head back around the output for the second half of winter 20/21. Certainly very interesting going towards the end of this month and into February. Notwithstanding much interest this week for those further north as well.

 

Welcome back hope your improving 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Marginal snow event for the South West/South Midlands this weekend. We could see flurries for 2-3 days, though at 700ft+ I'm feeling more bullish than most for seeing some snowy action.

 

[IDO]

Still looking around d11 for maybe the expected pattern to relent and possibly change, though the main cluster suggests a continuation with a trend to a more NW>SE flow in FI. For London, split around d11:

The op and control go there separate ways and both are at the extremes of mild and cold. The ecm op looks more reasonable with no d10 nonsense:

More indicative of the breaking waves in the Iberian region with the associated mini-ridge>mini-trough combo passing through the UK, with colder uppers on the backend of passing lows. Models all in sync until the end of Jan apart from specific micro-features.

[sheikhy]

Ukmo was wrong at 120 hours om thw 12z yesterday!!corrected south today!!looks like the best of the main 3!!but will probably be wrong at 144 hours today!!

[SLEETY]

Ecm interesting at day 10,

Never seen that before from the model at that timeframe, haha. 

Beginning to think we are going to be looking for interest at day 10 until mid_March when they probably start to verify,when too late then! 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Wee bit of wintry potential showing up further South on the UKV this morning.

Friday 18:00

 

21:00

 

Saturday 00:00

 

Please excuse all the charts! Trying to squeeze in a couple of snow parameters as well! 

All subject to change at this range - always nice to see though! 

All the best to you all!

[carinthian]

Looking at the charts out to 144t , the most noted change is the positioning of the Low off Norway. The fax for Friday has this feature and wrap around fronts out of the way from Scotland. However, opens up a more widespread NWly flow throughout the British Isles. Of course the air mass will be cold and unstable , so lines of snow showers/ troughs more likely rather than one concentrated area. So risk of snow almost anywhere from Friday.  Period 144t-240 , basically has high pressure over Iberia and still low to the NE . Nay impossible to base a forecast on this morning out puts as the British Isles in the firing line between the cold and the mild with its ebbs and flows. If looking for a longer spell of cold , may be the UKMO run offers the best hope ( look to the NW ) but unsettled seems to rule the roost.

C

[Kentspur]

I'm yet to see one CFS run showing even an average March yet let alone a mild one seems a consistently strong signal, but you can never trust the good old CFS 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Kentspur

[sheikhy]

Has the falling snow signal gone for thursday from that stormy low?!!!!

[Paul]

Locking this one now, new thread here: