Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

my wife has had it twice but me and the older kids didn’t contact it a second time. I think if you had it bad or you’re younger then you have a longer immune response 

anyway, time to see if the week 2 Gfs runs find some retrogression of the Iberian ridge and a euro trough 

Interesting you say that as I only know of females that have contracted it a second time such as my mums friend so far though im kind of of the opinion it could be that long covid tends to affect more women so maybe it takes them longer to rid the virus.

Anyway back on topic before I get a little orange message pop up at the top of the screen telling me to stay on topic -

Ive fished out this 18z beaut for Sunday which shows wintry precip over much of the South/East and SE

[Tim Bland]

12z Vs 18z day 11 #hasntgotascooby 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

12z Vs 18z day 11 #hasntgotascooby 

Just as much "agreement" as usual between gfs and para late on too... 

[Vikos]

EC Scenarios 12z

   

 

Each scenario, defined at 500 hPa, is associated to one of 4 pre-defined large scale climatological regimes. The frame colour of each plot represents the association to the climatological regimes. Scenario with a red frame indicates that its large scale features resembles the ones represented by the blocking, blue indicates association with Positive NAO pattern, green indicates association with negative NAO and violet with the Atlantic ridge pattern.

 

 

So, needed blocking is with one weaker cluster around month change... bit of hope...but... mrn (more runs needed)

Edited January 18, 2021 by Vikos

[Tim Bland]

I like where this is heading ..

[Griff]

GFS FI, well that was a long wait that bares no resemblance to previous... 

[Battleground Snow]

Would take this for the 1st of February.

 

[Kentspur]

Another steep drop in ensembles on 18z coldest run yet down to -6c (mean) to -7c op run for my area in tropical Gravesend and still maintains some ensembles with a snow risk

Edited January 18, 2021 by Kentspur

[Tim Bland]

Sometimes phasing works in our favor 

[Purga]

V nice looking pub run

[Roger J Smith]

Raw analogue report ... taking CET running means for 1-18 Jan and searching for any that fit these criteria, the analogues (since 1772) include the list below

CRITERIA -- Running mean by 18th in the range 2.0 to 3.2

-- Had been lower than 1.5 at some point before 10th

-- Had not been higher than 3.5 at any point since 1st. 

The analogue similarity is based on the accumulated differential between (a) running mean to 18th and 2.6, considered the likely revised value after corrections (2.8 likely to be provisional value), and 0.5, the lowest running mean of the interval 1-10 Jan.

Analogue similarity assigns a 2:1 weight ratio between current value and minimum 1-10. That means an analogue at 2.4 with minimum 0.1 will be equal to an analogue 2.2 min 0.5. 

The analogue index is the sum of the two variables (2x diff 18th + diff min). Lower analogue index values are closer analogues. The adjusted analogue index in brackets allows for 0.1 increments every 40 years in the CET records (i.e., it equates 0.5 today with 0.4 41-80 years ago, 0.3 81-120 years ago, etc). The adjusted index tells you if this analogue improves if slowly rising SST values are considered to be partially unlinked to atmospheric flow pattern responses, in other words, a slightly colder distant past analogue may be the same weather pattern as currently seen with lower values due to the air masses being over slightly colder oceans. Thus the assumption is that future similarity may be enhanced by a lower value of adjusted analogue.

The table then lists running CET values for 19-31 Jan (no decimals) and shows the Feb mean CET. The Jan 31 value is the January CET (decimal shown)

YEAR __ CET 18th __ Min 1-10 _____ 19_20_21_22_23_24_25_26_27_28_29_30_31_ Feb CET __ analogue index

1807 ____ 2.7 _______ 0.3 (2nd) ____ 27_27_27_27_27_28_27_26_27_27_27_27_2.8 ___ 3.7 ______ 4 (10)

1967 ____ 2.5 _______ 0.8 (10th) ____28_30_32_32_33_34_36_37_38_40_42_44_4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 5 (4)

1953 ____ 2.7 _______ 0.8 (6th) _____ 26_25_25_25_25_25_25_26_26_29_31_33_3.3 ___ 4.3 ______ 7 ( 4 )

1835 ____ 2.6 _______-0.3 (8th) _____ 24_22_21_20_21_22_24_25_26_27_28_29_2.9 ___ 5.7 ______ 8 (12)

1885 ____ 2.3 _______ 0.8 (1st) _____ 23_22_21_20_19_18_19_19_21_23_26_28_2.9 ___ 5.8 ______ 9 ( 6 )

1901 ____ 2.5 _______ 1.2 (9th) _____ 27_29_32_34_35_35_36_36_38_37_36_36_3.5 ___ 2.3 ______ 9 (14)

1785 ____ 2.4 _______-0.1 (1st) _____ 26_29_31_32_34_34_35_35_35_36_36_35_3.4 ___ 0.4 ______10 ( 7 )^

1805 ____ 2.8 _______-0.1 (1st) _____ 28_29_29_28_27_26_26_24_23_22_21_21_2.1 ___ 4.1 _____ 10 (15)

1793 ____ 2.9 _______ 1.0 (4th) _____ 27_26_25_25_25_25_26_25_26_27_28_28_2.8 ___ 4.6 _____ 11 (26)

1888 ____ 3.0 _______ 0.8 (1st) _____ 29_28_30_32_34_35_36_37_37_36_34_33_3.2 ___ 1.8 _____ 11 (20)

1945 ____ 2.2 _______ 0.2 (1st) _____ 22_20_19_17_15_13_10_07_04_03_02_02_0.4 ___ 7.1 _____ 11 ( 8 )

1843 ____ 2.2 _______ 0.0 (3rd) _____ 23_23_23_24_25_27_28_31_33_35_37_39_4.0 ___ 1.9 _____ 13 ( 1 ) 

1931 ____ 2.2 _______ 0.0 (8th) _____ 25_27_28_29_30_31_32_32_32_32_33_33_3.2 ___ 3.9 _____ 13 ( 7 )

1844 ____ 3.2 _______ 0.0 (3rd) _____ 33_34_34_34_35_34_35_35_36_37_38_39_3.8 ___ 1.6 _____ 17 (21)

1889 ____ 2.2 _______-0.5 (6th) _____ 24_25_26_26_26_27_28_30_29_30_31_32_3.4 ___ 2.9 _____ 18 ( 9 )

1970 ____ 2.8 _______-0.9 (8th) _____ 30_31_33_35_36_37_38_39_39_38_38_38_3.7 ___ 2.9 _____ 18 (19)

1773 ____ 3.2 _______-0.2 (7th) _____ 33_36_36_37_38_39_40_42_44_43_42_42_4.0 ___ 2.6 _____ 19 (25)

2009 ____ 2.2 _______-1.0 (7th) _____ 23_24_24_26_26_27_27_28_29_29_30_30_3.0 ___ 4.1 _____ 23 (23)

1946 ____ 3.1 _______ -0.9 (3rd) _____28_25_23_22_21_21_22_23_23_24_25_26_2.7 ___ 5.9 _____ 24 (25)

1832 ____ 2.7 _______-1.9 (1st) _____ 26_25_27_28_28_29_30_30_29_29_30_30_3.1 ___ 3.4 _____ 26 (30)

1868 ____ 3.1 ______ -1.4 (1st,2nd) _ 32_32_33_32_31_32_32_32_34_35_35_36_3.9 ___ 6.3 _____ 29 (32)

1908 ____ 2.0 ______ -1.2 (5th) ______19_19_18_17_18_18_18_20_23_24_25_24_2.5 ___ 5.3 _____ 29 (20)

1849 ____ 2.7 ______ -2.3 (2nd,3rd)__30_33_34_36_37_39_41_41_41_41_40_40_3.9 ___ 5.7 _____ 30 (34)

1777 ____ 1.9 ______ -1.7 (9th) ______19_19_19_19_19_20_20_20_20_20_20_19_1.9 ___ 2.3 _____ 36 (18)

1836 ____ 2.4 ______ -3.0 (2nd) _____ 23_24_24_27_30_32_32_33_35_36_36_36_3.7___ 3.5 _____ 37 (33)

1894 ____ 2.3 ______ -3.1 (7th) ______25_28_30_31_30_30_31_32_33_33_34_34_3.4 ___ 5.1 _____ 39 (30)

2002 ____ 3.4 ______ -1.8 (1st,2nd) _ 35_38_41_43_45_46_47_48_49_51_53_54_5.5 ___ 7.0 _____ 39 (39)

1800 ____ 3.0 ______ -5.0 (1st) ______31_29_28_26_25_25_25_27_28_28_29_28_2.8 ___ 2.2 _____ 63 (68)

mean ___ 2.6 ______ -0.7 ___________26_26_26_27_27_28_28_29_30_30_31_31_3.2 ___ 4.0 

______________________________________________

1968 discarded as coldest (1.1 12th) too far removed from analogue set cold but in any case CET Jan 4.4, Feb 1.9

1962 a bit too mild at 3.4 C (18th) but had a cold start and Jan CET was 4.3, Feb CET 4.4. 

1971 a bit too mild at 3.5 C (18th) but had a cold start and Jan CET was 4.5, Feb CET 4.5. 

1986 also a bit too mild at 3.6 (18th) but had a cold start and Jan CET 3.5, Feb CET --1.1 C. 

1777 included despite marginally disqualified 18th CET, as it improves to a good adjusted analogue value. 

2002 included despite marginally disqualified 18th CET, as only other recent analogue beside 2009. 

^1785 (excellent analogue) went to a cold Feb and extreme cold March (1.2). 

1827 did not qualify because of 4.7 C 1st, went to -0.8 by 5th, was 3.2 18th, finished 1.7 and Feb 0.7. 

____________________________________________________

SUMMARY: 

One feature of this analysis was that many of the analogue set members display low variability relative to random samples of

late January data (they tend to get stuck in a very slow rise back towards equilibrium which for Jan CET is 3.2-3.5. The Februaries

that follow seem to be about evenly divided between very mild and quite cold cases with relatively few close to long term normals.

This may indicate that blocking of various kinds is more likely to occur after Januaries like the analogue set contains. 

1843 when adjusted seemed most similar to 2021. Note that this January warmed rather quickly after the 25th, reaching 4.0

for a  monthly mean after some near-10 C daily means 27th-29th. The February that followed was cold (1.9) with minimum

values around -3 C 15th-16th. 

 

 

[ICE COLD]

Strange run the pub run , in a good way tho . Just think all that blocking we’ve been having and we got poor uppers but on this run not a great deal of blocking over are side and we get really cold uppers

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS FI, well that was a long wait that bares no resemblance to previous... 

 

 

Now here is one synoptic - very rare, that i do get interested in that doesn't involve a Scandinavian high, conveyor train of sliders with proper cold air and no slush, keeps the whole country in the game as well, even when the SW gets buried and the Midlands, i always think with all those low heights and frigid air close to the East, a shortwave could easily get ejected south West, a slow moving shortwave moving SW across the Pennines would give a cataclysmic snow event to Buxton / Saddleworth and the Snake Pass etc!!

[Battleground Snow]

Para also very cold on the 1st of February

Maybe a fantastic February after a jittery January?

 

[Scott Ingham]

37 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Hi Scott just out of interest is this the second time you've had it? As I had it in June (caught it when I went to say goodbye to my best friends mum who was dying of cancer) all very sad as I was told she had tested negative a day or 2 before I arrived turns out a nurse may have passed it on to her in the meantime, which she then suffered with & also my friend and all her children and then me, even though I was at a distance and only there for around 20-25minutes, I've tested negative today 2nd test in a fortnight after most of the people i worked with tested positive lately, as I'm a keyworker ill be having them every 2 weeks, but just thought maybe I'm immune? But if you have had it twice thats my theory out the window.

 

I hope you and your mum make a full and speedy recovery fella, and I look forward to your incredible posts that bring so much joy and enlightenment to many people on here during this "stay at home era"

I have had it once in October and again December the 30th.

Theres a bit of chat over whether i have had it once had long covid and tested positive again as symptoms came back in December or caught two different variants.

Ive had one person tell me they think its long covid and 3 say re-infection as the temperature and loss of taste dont come back with long covid.

As for my mum shes on a ventillator and stable and so while not great shes in a position for the symptoms to ease so that is great news.

Apologies for everyone thats wished me well i havnt replied to every message as i dont want to take things off topic so this is one reply to everyone to say thank you and ill look forward to getting back involved with everyone when i can put the correct time in it as we all know other things are just more important despite our love and obsession for the weather!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Evening all 

Hope you are all well!

Great January up here so far - couple of decent/surprise snowfalls, ice days, endless frosts and low temperatures! Proper Winter after that abysmal 2019/20 one!  

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies!

Weekly breakdown below:

25/01 to 31/01

 

01/02 to 07/02

 

08/02 to 14/02

 

15/02 to 21/02

 

22/02 to 28/02 

 

For any new members/guests browsing the thread...any shade of blue is good, white is meh and orange/red is very bad! 

Will try and catch up with this thread at some stage! 

All the best to you all! 

These smack of frontal snow events draped somewhere across the UK...First week N favoured, 2nd week Midlands favoured and 3rd week the S favoured. That's how I read it anyway. Would be good to see the associated precip charts

[Roger J Smith]

The strong arctic high I was tracking a few days ago has drifted northwest to around 84N 110E. From there it seems most likely to start dropping southwest into Russia near the Urals. I don't expect models to do extremely well with its further progress being that close to the North Pole where tiny changes of latitude or longitude especially get amplified quickly. 

The central pressure has remained fairly constant around 1050 mb. 

[Kentspur]

Just for a change I thought I'd look at the Icon 18z ensembles which go very cold again at the end of the run I've attached some 2metre temps as the 850HPA aren't available on Wetterzentrale, I was surprised to see max temps of around 3c here in the SE as an average by 23rd January! Barely above Freezing in Scotland, and around 4-4.5c in the SW/S Wales, cold signal for sure is Growing even on the "lesser" models

 

PS thanks to the reply Scott I hope your mum gets all the help and care she needs ❤

 

Night all

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

 scott I wish you and your mum a speedy recovery I hope you both get well soon I am sure most members here on net weather wish you the same

[SLEETY]

Finally some decent cold being shown on the gfs op, no mucky slush, on this run, let's hope its the start of a trend and the gfs doesn't revert to mild again in 6 hours. 

Ecm was hinting at something similar at the end of its run earlier, so let's hope that continues in the morning. 

 

A better outlook hopefully for cold weather fans.. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi gang,just caught up after reading all the post's in here today(after's shift blah! blah!)

firstly i would just like to wish @Scott Ingham and his mum a full speedy recovery and it is totally understandable that family come first and thank you for letting us know mate,these are still testing times and i wish all of you to stay safe,we are hopefully getting there to beat this blasted thing and good riddance

as for the models:-

well where do i start and finish,...i said the other day that this storm should be named and now it is so now there is concerns with flooding and i hope that it doesn't cause to much concern as we have enough on are plates without mopping up afterwards,then this system gets out of the way and we look to our N/NW where things could get interesting in terms of it getting colder and as some have mentioned colder air could dig under the trough late Wednesday night into Thursday morning,one to watch

latest 12z fax charts:-

^northern England initially could be a good bet for some good snow fall then this pushes SE through early Thursday morning and then this storm becomes stronger with a 958mb as it exits NE into the north sea

so a busy period of weather coming up starting tomorrow with amber warnings for rain Tue/Wed and Thu but can we all get on the snow train afterwards?...stay tuned as i am sure you would

take care all...

thanks.

Edited January 19, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

A latest look at the 18z gefs ens for my local and London...

there is some huge rainfall spikes there(for here) but can we get that mean down toward Feb?,..it's getting there with a fair few ens following the op,...interesting times as we move into Feb.

[syed2878]

Hi folks this the weekly MJO discussions link from NOAA  

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[danm]

3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Really sorry to hear this Scott. Wishing your mum a speedy recovery! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM ext MJO to the 18thh of Feb...

i will take that.