Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

@Scott Ingham? 

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

[Battleground Snow]

15 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Anyone fancy giving a little run down of the MJO and how it has an effect on global patterns? I know its a tropical oscillation that moves around the planet, and see it mentioned on the thread often.

What do the phases represent and how do the different phases influence blocking patterns at the Northern latitudes?

Im thinking this may be a bit to complicated a question for the mod thread but if anyone can sum it up simply that would be great. If not ill have to do some reading. Thanks.

Hi Chris,

This is a very basic guide for the UK for winter.

I'll let the technical experts explain further

You can see why phase 3 and 4 were not good for us.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Wishing you all a speedy recovery.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Really sorry Scott..Family before weather everytime.. wishing you and Mom a very speedy recovery.

Edited January 18, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

hope she recovers quickly

[jcw]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think they’ve already gone through the alphabet once so this is now alphabet part 2 .

Don't think so, Nick. 

The storm names came into effect on Sept 1, 2020 - ignoring storms named by Portugal, France or Spain, or ex-Hurricanes. 

The 2020/2021 names storms are here: 

Storm Names 2020/21 - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

WWW.MET.IE

---

Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by jcw
Typo

[Badgers01]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think they’ve already gone through the alphabet once so this is now alphabet part 2 .

That’s not the case we are on our 3rd named storm of the season so far that is all !

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

39 minutes ago, fromey said:

Oh god! Just when I thought I could stop coming on here 3 times a day

Only 3? 

[FreezingFog]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think they’ve already gone through the alphabet once so this is now alphabet part 2 .

That would be a wild winter if that ever came to pass. 

[Mr Frost]

Evening all 

Hope you are all well!

Great January up here so far - couple of decent/surprise snowfalls, ice days, endless frosts and low temperatures! Proper Winter after that abysmal 2019/20 one!  

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies!

Weekly breakdown below:

25/01 to 31/01

 

01/02 to 07/02

 

08/02 to 14/02

 

15/02 to 21/02

 

22/02 to 28/02 

 

For any new members/guests browsing the thread...any shade of blue is good, white is meh and orange/red is very bad! 

Will try and catch up with this thread at some stage! 

All the best to you all! 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Mr Frost

[chris55]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Wishing all the best Scott. 

[offerman]

24 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Hello Scott,

Sending my thoughts and prayers for your mum mate. Really understand your worry. My mum hasn't got covid but isnt so well these days plus my dad died a few months ago. Im the only one in the whole family that's looked after both of them these last few years but i wouldn't have it any other way as its what i want to do for them.  Keep up the good support for her. We keep positive as possible glass half full types and we know there are so many others suffering out there and others worse off.

 

Im sure she will be fine and having you around to help where you can is what she needs and you're doing the right and good thing.

 

Sending her positive thoughts and vibes for a healthy recovery. 

Take care all of you .

[chris55]

20 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hi Chris,

This is a very basic guide for the UK for winter.

I'll let the technical experts explain further

You can see why phase 3 and 4 were not good for us.

 

 

Thanks Battle.

That gives a good guide to the graph, and really clarifies what the phases can mean for the UK. Im assuming they relate to the analogs previously associated with each phase. Ill have to do some reading on why each phase effects us in different ways, but that visual representation is enough to understand what people are chatting about when they talk about the phases.

I have also deciphered COD means Circle Of Death' ( I think lol) that means it essentially having little influence either way and the line is staying in the middle circle 

[damianslaw]

Keep using the word 'chaotic', but that is how things are at present. I'm looking at the reliable timeframe only, as expect lots of changes in the medium timeframe from run to run.

Reliable timeframe Saturday just about tops.

What have we in store, alot of weather! Not a good outlook at all, heavy rain for some, and risk of serious flooding, just what we don't need right now. Further north, chance of significant snow.

Keep looking at the UK FAX charts.

[bluearmy]

I think we place too much attention on the detail of the 46 and things like temp and slp.  I would just pay attention to placement of anoms and on that basis, feb offers encouragement for coldies ....

[Mair Snaw]

@Scott Ingham all the best to you and your Mum too.. i tested positive many months ago but was lucky enough to remain asymptomatic throughout, have had many friends and there families test positive without any real trouble more than a heavy cold.. its an odd one how the symptoms can be so diverse and different... you have been great on here the past few months and a credit to the forum.. take care of yourself and your family.. we will all still be here when you are well enough to enjoy your fantastic input..

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

I can do sometime soon.

My mums caught covid off of me and shes got a lot worse really quick so ive taken a step away atm sorry Griff

Hi Scott just out of interest is this the second time you've had it? As I had it in June (caught it when I went to say goodbye to my best friends mum who was dying of cancer) all very sad as I was told she had tested negative a day or 2 before I arrived turns out a nurse may have passed it on to her in the meantime, which she then suffered with & also my friend and all her children and then me, even though I was at a distance and only there for around 20-25minutes, I've tested negative today 2nd test in a fortnight after most of the people i worked with tested positive lately, as I'm a keyworker ill be having them every 2 weeks, but just thought maybe I'm immune? But if you have had it twice thats my theory out the window.

 

I hope you and your mum make a full and speedy recovery fella, and I look forward to your incredible posts that bring so much joy and enlightenment to many people on here during this "stay at home era"

Edited January 18, 2021 by Kentspur

[topo]

I have a feeling that ECM provides a much "cleaner" and correct solution between 96-144 hrs.. GFS and GFSparallel have too much going on around the low pressure (lots of troughs, lows inside low etc) in southwestern Norway.

 

[chris55]

Cold air wrapping around the deepening area of Low pressure Thursday morning. After all the rain some places up north will see a transition to heavy snow.

 

 

Hopefully we can pull some embedded troughs disturbances further south in the flow.

 

 Friday into Saturday colder air further south, some disturbances running west to east across England and Wales further south.

UKMO with a much more organised feature for the same time Saturday...

 

Will be interesting to see how Saturday eventually verifies.

 

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

I get this post I really do , However No interest from me , perhaps some concern.  The snow looks great for those in the firing line but again there could and probably will be a thaw that would increase the flooding potential for these areas too . The rain seems well documented already on the news , another reason to switch off and chase fantasy charts , hopefully soon they will come true , please . 
 

ps the Navgem is not mighty tonight.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[Man With Beard]

Ecm individual ensembles have now completely turned for 30/1, compared with 36 hours ago - low pressure now centred west rather than east on most members. However, by the end of the run, signs of ridging appearing of high pressure to both north and north east. Can't quite believe any of it at the moment - too much volatility.

[Griff]

Not sure if there's much value with so much going on but in any case gfs vs p at 180. 

Would have thought Arctic heights would have some roll if the pattern was to change? 

 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Hi Scott just out of interest is this the second time you've had it? As I had it in June (caught it when I went to say goodbye to my best friends mum who was dying of cancer) all very sad as I was told she had tested negative a day or 2 before I arrived turns out a nurse may have passed it on to her in the meantime, which she then suffered with & also my friend and all her children and then me, even though I was at a distance and only there for around 20-25minutes, I've tested negative today 2nd test in a fortnight after most of the people i worked with tested positive lately, as I'm a keyworker ill be having them every 2 weeks, but just thought maybe I'm immune? But if you have had it twice thats my theory out the window.

 

I hope you and your mum make a full and speedy recovery fella, and I look forward to your incredible posts that bring so much joy and enlightenment to many people on here during this "stay at home era"

my wife has had it twice but me and the older kids didn’t contact it a second time. I think if you had it bad or you’re younger then you have a longer immune response 

anyway, time to see if the week 2 Gfs runs find some retrogression of the Iberian ridge and a euro trough 

[Vikos]

Yep, this is the way to go

   

 

[Vikos]

Maybe it's the new variation (mutant)

 

Stay safe

(will be deleted soon I think)