Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

EC46.

Europe is suffering badly ..

Although it is ridiculously cold across Central and East Europe right now..

[Hullsnow87]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Europe is suffering badly ..

Although it is ridiculously cold across Central and East Europe right now..

So this means we could be in for a cold start to feb?

[northwestsnow]

Rumours swirling around twitter the MJO is now on the move to a more favourable phase...( actually that sounds a bit dramatic lol)..

Anyway, if the mjo does indeed move in coldies favour any unsettled phase may not be that long lasting?

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

 

15 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC46.

You need to post charts with the key attached! Otherwise they are just colours on a screen......

Edited January 18, 2021 by chris55

[ANYWEATHER]

High level of uncertainty or Shannon Entropy for the medium term, but for Saturday could be some some snow surprises for Wales midlands and southern Southwestern England. Watch this space....! 

[PolarWarsaw]

39 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

It's very worrying indeed, hopefully those in flood prone areas are okay.

However, it rains on and off for about 4 months of the year and is hardly that rare during summer (getting much rarer, our Summers are far drier, more humid and generally more of a chore each year now) either. It rains on and off over the course of a year, quite often a lot and for days at a time.

It snows a very small handful of times during any winter, if we are lucky and for those reasons people will always want to chose to discuss/chase something that you might not see for years....over something you can see most days for 4 or 5 months of the year.

FWIW, rain seems to be everyone's least favourite type of weather. Which to me seems genuinely strange, I'd much sooner have weather like this to discuss, or even a raging zonal Atlantic than I would high pressure or boredom. So there is a time and a place for focusing on rain - namely from April to September, just not in winter (never will be either).

Edited January 18, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[PolarWarsaw]

3 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:

So this means we could be in for a cold start to feb?

Perhaps so, but these charts have changed their mind since September at virtually every turn. 

They are IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Though admittedly, they do occasionally show a general trend worth following.

[ScottSnow]

1 hour ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Hi there, 

In short no.

Any effects of the SSW are being felt further north and much further east than the UK/Europe with most of the cold air still stuck where it has been for months. Wintry hazards appear to be marginal and predominantly favourable for those in Scotland.

It's a waiting game in terms of whether more damage can be done to the Vortex in the next month or so to bring us a cold spell. As of right now it's more whether we can find a route to cold without the effects of an SSW - as of right now the SSW has had and looks like having zero impact on the UK at the surface. If anything the SSW has been more unhelpful for our weather as it has potentially disrupted a reasonable pattern from beforehand and increased energy in the Atlantic that wasn't there before.

The outlook is chilly and wet this week, with snow for Scotland and the hills of Northern England, but not cold enough elsewhere. Lots of rain this week and then the chance of us drying out next week as we settle down but continue the 'cooler' theme. Sadly, zero wintry weather is in the forecast or on the horizon for most of England as we continue towards the end January.

All in all, very typical for the UK. The disappointing winter and weather at the surface continues for those wanting something more snowy.

To be fair for people who don’t think Scotland begins after Manchester this winter has been good so far. Inland northern areas have had snow cover most days since Xmas Eve. Looking at the models northern England is in for more of the same over next few weeks.

We still have another two months of winter weather to come and looking at the models northern areas are rarely far from the cold. Hopefully we see the impacts of the SSW. I for one think especially for my location winter is far from over.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

Perhaps so, but these charts have changed their mind since September at virtually every turn. 

They are IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Though admittedly, they do occasionally show a general trend worth following.

It does seem a little more chaotic at the moment.

I'm hoping the mjo news is genuine, that will be another key in unlocking the Atlantic,which is almost certainly ripe for wedges...

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Rumours swirling around twitter the MJO is now on the move to a more favourable phase...( actually that sounds a bit dramatic lol)..

Anyway, if the mjo does indeed move in coldies favour any unsettled phase may not be that long lasting?

Holy sh*t what does it need to get proper cold to our shores these days, SSW, MJO on board too, I know QBO isn’t but solar input is.  It does look from the 12z output that an unsettled spell is inevitable, I won’t say Atlantic driven as there is no energy there, but it is winning because nothing else in our vicinity is driving things either...I don’t think this situation will last and think something will move things on, but don’t know when or what...so we wait.

[Matt H]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Rumours swirling around twitter the MJO is now on the move to a more favourable phase...( actually that sounds a bit dramatic lol)..

Anyway, if the mjo does indeed move in coldies favour any unsettled phase may not be that long lasting?

Yes, I’ve just been reading some encouraging updates from the experts on Twitter. I hope they come to something this time, fingers crossed.

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It does seem a little more chaotic at the moment.

I'm hoping the mjo news is genuine, that will be another key in unlocking the Atlantic,which is almost certainly ripe for wedges...

I hope you are right mate and admire your optimism. 

Personally I've realised that I learn more from looking at charts myself and listening to the wise guys on this forum than I do looking at any forecast, anything on social media etc. 

My only opinion right now is that all of these 'background' drivers, the MJO etc - they are all as flippant as the CFS or an individual GFS ensemble member, they flop and change on a daily basis. One day they are heading into a favourable spell for us, the next morning it's doom.

Until we learn more about them and how they imprint on the weather in our locale/at our surface (not fussed about what's happening in Russia for example) then for me they are built on very wobbly ground and can continue to be used in the same faith as the GFS updating every 6 hours of the day. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Looks like this developing Low Pressure will bring stormy conditions to the Eastern counties of both Scotland and England and a Foam bath in the North Sea.

[fromey]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Yes, I’ve just been reading some encouraging updates from the experts on Twitter. I hope they come to something this time, fingers crossed.

Oh god! Just when I thought I could stop coming on here 3 times a day

[IDO]

Conversely, once an SSWE has played its hands and the NH profile has been imprinted with the blocking pattern, output becomes easier for the models to fathom as the long wave pattern is dictated by the strat coupling. That is maybe the reason why we have across the board support for the upcoming period and have had for days. The d10 means from gem, gfs and ecm:

So with that clarity it is more about the fine print of peaks and troughs to drive some transient scraps of cold. D10 and unity as to those chart:

It is therefore maybe reasonable to agree on a baseline for the next 10-12 days (IMBY): Tuesday and Wednesday just above average, colder from then until Monday or Tuesday (2-4c below average), then maybe staying below average or alternatively around average (two temp clusters). I do not see any very mild or very cold, but below average for the next 12-days as a whole (ditto to d16). Extrapolate to colder the further north you are and snowier the higher the elevation. Based on this type of flow, those of us down south cannot expect too much. Post-d12 is where maybe things could get colder quicker than they are showing currently. All JFF and IMHO (usual caveats, disclaimers, etc).

 

[PolarWarsaw]

 

13 minutes ago, Snow White said:

To be fair for people who don’t think Scotland begins after Manchester this winter has been good so far. Inland northern areas have had snow cover most days since Xmas Eve. Looking at the models northern England is in for more of the same over next few weeks.

We still have another two months of winter weather to come and looking at the models northern areas are rarely far from the cold. Hopefully we see the impacts of the SSW. I for one think especially for my location winter is far from over.

 

I certainly don't think it's winter over at all. As I mentioned, plenty of time left to get widespread snow to the UK. It's just as soon as you get into February and then mid-month you suddenly start finding the days are 3 hours longer, the sun is warmer etc. You need considerably more 'notable' synoptics to provide good spells at that point. Although it's very disappointing to see the 'slider' theme dropped from this weekend as that's the golden ticket for most of the country to get a decent snowfall this winter.

I've had 4 snowfalls this season, all of them stuck around for a day or so and all were 1-2CM deep, we've been very lucky here as we are probably the southern most and most lowest lying area away to see accumulating snow on more than 1 occasion. I'm quite content with that. I do feel with an SSW, the zero Vortex this season and everything else that's fallen favourably, that it's a massive shame to have not had quite a long, notable, cold and widespread snowy spell this season and I think most, especially South of the M4 would echo that.

No doubting it's been the most IMBY winter for years, somewhere from Buxton through to Yorkshire and then northwards has had it's best and most snowy winter in years.

Edited January 18, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Looks like this developing Low Pressure will bring stormy conditions to the Eastern counties of both Scotland and England and a Foam bath in the North Sea.

Luckily, its going the wrong way for a storm surge here, Denmark and S. Sweden may have some issues though.

[stodge]

Evening all

A quiet and pleasant day here in lowland East London but last evening's output emphasised the high rainfall totals in the next 10 days and to be fair there was plenty of interest in far FI going into early February what does or does not happen in the stratosphere. Not much interest for southern coldies but plenty of interest further north and particularly for higher ground in Scotland.

Let's see where we are this Monday evening:

12Z GEM: T+120 takes us to Saturday and the unsettled theme very much in evidence. One LP sits over the western Norwegian coast with another LP approaching from the south west.  Milder air encroaching with it but still 850s of -4 and below for northern and eastern parts. Moving on, the LP to the south west deepens and moves across southern areas as a significant feature but clears away and a NW'ly covers most areas but hints of a ridge at T+180 which has briefly cut the flow in the trough leaving the main Atlantic LP spinning far to the west. Heights persist over Morocco and Greenland. Uppers of -4 to -8 generally by T+180 with the mildest air confined to the south west. From there, some respite in the deluges as heights rise from the north and slip through the British isles to be off the east coast of England as a weak HP centre by T+240. A trough is negatively aligned to the west with heights to north and south as before. Colder air remains in situ and by T+240 it's 850s of zero to -4 with the mildest air held out to the south west. I've added the cumulative precipitation chart and it shows less rain than last evening but still a lot for the west and south-west.

An interesting evolution from GEM and again showing what can happen if you aren't dealing with a raging PV and an active jet.

12Z GFS OP - at T+120 there are notable differences between GEM and GFS. The main LP to the north is closer to the British Isles while the LP is already over southern England but as a secondary feature. Uppers of -4 to -8 across all parts so you'd have to wonder whether that secondary feature would be providing some snow to some parts but I'll leave that to much nearer the time and to models such as Euro4 and ARPEGE. From there, the colder regime gradually relaxes as pressure rises from the south and SW'ly winds are over the British Isles by T+180 with a complex Atlantic trough to the west and weak heights over Scandinavia. Positive uppers are moving back in from the south west but colder air remains in northern and eastern parts. From there, an LP crosses the British Isles but then moves SE and the next LP, breaking from the mid-Atlantic trough, takes a more southerly track as heights build from the north and by T+240 a small HP has formed to the north west of the British Isles and there's a slack E'ly flow across the southern and eastern British Isles.  I've added the cumulative precipitation chart for the UK to T+240 and again north-west England looks the worst hit with 4 inches of rain expected in the next days and up to five inches in North Wales. Milder air remains in the south west but colder air is spreading from the north and east with some -10 uppers in the far north east of Scotland.

As with GEM, GFS OP ends a bit messy with a hint of something settled and colder.

On then to the 12Z Control - not hugely different from the OP at T+120 as you might expect. Uppers of -4 to -8 across the British Isles.  From there, an attempt to cut the trough line with heights from north to south fails leaving a transient ridge over southern and western Britain by T+180. A shortwave over the Northern Isles keeps a light NW'ly over northern and eastern parts. Otherwise it's still not too different from the OP. Negative uppers remain over the British isles but milder air is approaching from the south west. On to T+240 and after another LP has crossed the British Isles, a slack trough remains over eastern Britain with another weak ridge upstream and a hint of heights over Scandinavia which may or may not be significant. Positive uppers over southern England but colder air further north.  

Control also ends a bit messy and confusing with an obvious milder synoptic profile to the west and south west but in the absence of a zonal jet it's not making much progress.

12Z ECM: by T+120 Storm Christoph (or whatever it's going to be called) is over the west of Norway leaving a slack NW'ly air flow over the British Isles ahead of the next Atlantic feature approaching from the west. Uppers of -4 to -8 across the British Isles by this time. From there, the trough to the north-east fills and a new complex trough takes over from the Atlantic with a chain of LP moving to the north-west of Scotland as the jet moves back north with heights over or to the north of the Canary Islands. The upstream profile does differ from other models with a weaker Atlantic - T+240 surprised last night of course but I suspect it won't tonight.  Mild air with uppers of +4 over the south and it's generally mild across the whole of the British Isles at this time. Moving on, a slight surprise as a new Atlantic LP develops and moves NE towards Iceland allowing heights to build across western Europe - the HP by T+240 is centred over northern Spain while a residual LP over Norway keeps a NW'ly flow over eastern parts while a slack flow has taken over the west. This has led to a new plunge of colder air over northern and eastern Britain with the ECM 850 profile over the UK at T+240 very close to that of GFS OP at the same time.

ECM once again surprises but all the models are looking at breaking the unsettled flow before the end of the month with some form of heights developing close to the British Isles - the devil will be in the detail but the trend is interesting and we'll see if it develops in the coming days.

Moving further ahead - just for a bit of amusement, we'll take the usual glance at the T+312 and T+384 charts from OP and Control:

Strangely, though the two runs look quite similar in our neck of the woods, the Polar profiles are very different - OP keeps the PV fragmented, Control brings a strong PV back over to the American side.

I see we have a Parallel run tonight - stormy would be a fair content with an active Atlantic and virtually no break in the run of LP from west to east. 

I've just added the cumulative precipitations chart from Parallel to T+240 - again North Wales and North West England catching most of it with 5 inches over Snowdonia and I'd be worried about flooding on the Severn looking at those numbers.

Conclusion: water, water, everywhere it would seem tonight - at least initially. Plenty of rain and snow for the fortunate (north, higher ground). A sniff of a break at T+240 but further into FI, the unsettled theme continues but against the very end of FI the smallest hint of upstream amplification in early February. Frustrating for snow-starved southerners but all is far from lost - February and March are always better bets for the white stuff and again this is far from a typical winter synoptic profile so plenty to keep us thinking about in the days ahead.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by stodge

[chris55]

Anyone fancy giving a little run down of the MJO and how it has an effect on global patterns? I know its a tropical oscillation that moves around the planet, and see it mentioned on the thread often.

What do the phases represent and how do the different phases influence blocking patterns at the Northern latitudes?

Im thinking this may be a bit to complicated a question for the mod thread but if anyone can sum it up simply that would be great. If not ill have to do some reading. Thanks.

Edited January 18, 2021 by chris55

[FreezingFog]

36 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

 

For instance it is the 18th of Jan and it is already storm Christoph.

 

Already? Storm season started on Sept 01st so this is only 3rd named by Met office or Met Eireann well into month 5.  

[Darren Vidamour]

49 minutes ago, iand61 said:

And on this side of the Pennines as well.

if the rain amounts being talked about come off I’d imagine many of the records set on Boxing Day 2015 will be under threat.

a worrying time for anyone in a flood prone area and made even worse by all public buildings being out of bounds due to COVID although I imagine that will soon change if evacuations are needed.

Yes my mum has the River Aire running at the back of her garden in Apperley Bridge and ive just had a call from my mate who works for Calderdale Council Flood Risk Management and he quite worryingly said this could be worse than Boxing Day 2015! Start to move things now for her is not something I want to hear......What with shielding from Covid and now this no thanks!!!!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Anyone fancy giving a little run down of the MJO and how it has an effect on global patterns? I know its a tropical oscillation that moves around the planet, and see it mentioned on the thread often.

What do the phases represent and how do the different phases influence blocking patterns at the Northern latitudes?

Im thinking this may be a bit to complicated a question for the mod thread but if anyone can sum it up simply that would be great. If not ill have to do some reading. Thanks.

@Scott Ingham? 

[Kentspur]

The full 6 weeks of EC46- a drying up trend and id hazard a guess a lot of snow up north especially Scotland while the south/east could be in the game by 2nd week of February

 

(Pressure anomalies not in week order) 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Kentspur

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, FreezingFog said:

Already? Storm season started on Sept 01st so this is only 3rd named by Met office or Met Eireann well into month 5.  

I think they’ve already gone through the alphabet once so this is now alphabet part 2 .

[MATTWOLVES 3]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holy sh*t what does it need to get proper cold to our shores these days, SSW, MJO on board too, I know QBO isn’t but solar input is.  It does look from the 12z output that an unsettled spell is inevitable, I won’t say Atlantic driven as there is no energy there, but it is winning because nothing else in our vicinity is driving things either...I don’t think this situation will last and think something will move things on, but don’t know when or what...so we wait.

MJO on the move and potentially a further warming event to come,surely we will get some rewards from this! Apparently though MJO 6 would be bad news for the East States though,and probably keep them milder..And perhaps this storm may give it some kind of kick in the ghoolies and get things moving. The signs moving forward are favouring us though.