Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[nick sussex]

Just now, That ECM said:

I think that was a no as well. Vicar of Dibley, no no no no yes

Unfortunately not enough upstream amplitude at the key time however given we’re talking day 7 onwards things could still change .

Lets hope when the ECM spreads come out we see that to the south of the UK which would suggest some ensemble members take the shortwave on a better track .

 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

 

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I think that was a no as well. Vicar of Dibley, no no no no yes

Of course, it's not a good wedge, but it is the first attempt by EC in a while. Perhaps a sign? I hope so.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unfortunately not enough upstream amplitude at the key time however given we’re talking day 7 onwards things could still change .

Lets hope when the ECM spreads come out we see that to the south of the UK which would suggest some ensemble members take the shortwave on a better track .

 

 

 

As i posted a few minutes ago.

If ECM and UKMO are so different at 120z its not worth pursuing the rest of the run with any positivity

 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 12z showing a short mild burst at 192 hrs and possibly 216 hrs in the south all in fantasy island 

of course,finishing at 240 hrs with a cold blast from the north and pressure rise to the west.

Nothiing showing to me of any sustained mild,mostly rather cold/ cold with the a few milder 

blips as said by met office 30 day in the south.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

As i posted a few minutes ago.

If ECM and UKMO are so different at 120z its not worth pursuing the rest of the run with any positivity

 

Or negativity?

it doesn’t take too much retrogression to keep much of the country in the cold.... is it feasible that that the nwp has things  too far to the east ??

tbh, I don’t think it has but can’t rule it out ....

[winterof79]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Or negativity?

it doesn’t take too much retrogression to keep much of the country in the cold.... is it feasible that that the nwp has things  too far to the east ??

tbh, I don’t think it has but can’t rule it out ....

To be honest i meant any positivity that it it is correct at all. Cold or mild. If two major models cant agree at 120 then anything after is FI 

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi all as the ssw had any effect on weather yet over Western Europe or is the effect happening now with block over western greenland with this on going wintery hazards around uk . Or is  it still wanting game for ssw effect Western Europe..

[PolarWarsaw]

8 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Hi all as the ssw had any effect on weather yet over Western Europe or is the effect happening now with block over western greenland with this on going wintery hazards around uk . Or is  it still wanting game for ssw effect Western Europe..

Hi there, 

In short no.

Any effects of the SSW are being felt further north and much further east than the UK/Europe with most of the cold air still stuck where it has been for months. Wintry hazards appear to be marginal and predominantly favourable for those in Scotland.

It's a waiting game in terms of whether more damage can be done to the Vortex in the next month or so to bring us a cold spell. As of right now it's more whether we can find a route to cold without the effects of an SSW - as of right now the SSW has had and looks like having zero impact on the UK at the surface. If anything the SSW has been more unhelpful for our weather as it has potentially disrupted a reasonable pattern from beforehand and increased energy in the Atlantic that wasn't there before.

The outlook is chilly and wet this week, with snow for Scotland and the hills of Northern England, but not cold enough elsewhere. Lots of rain this week and then the chance of us drying out next week as we settle down but continue the 'cooler' theme. Sadly, zero wintry weather is in the forecast or on the horizon for most of England as we continue towards the end January.

All in all, very typical for the UK. The disappointing winter and weather at the surface continues for those wanting something more snowy.

Edited January 18, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Hi all as the ssw had any effect on weather yet over Western Europe or is the effect happening now with block over western greenland with this on going wintery hazards around uk . Or is  it still wanting game for ssw effect Western Europe..

I don't tbh  think anyone knows. Maybe better sniffing the dirt and looking out of the window over the next few weeks. PV tbh isn't strong but nothing severe wintry wise on the cards atm

Edited January 18, 2021 by swfc

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A wild situation for many these next few days for sure,then we have a significant snow risk towards East Scotland on Thursday,perhaps even some snow towards the Midlands Southwards as a front clears later,depending on the track and speed with colder air chasing on behind. Towards the Weekend perhaps a Snow risk further South,again the track is uncertain...this could go across the channel and miss,a bit further North then boom could be decent...radars at the ready guys.

Some interest on the strat from Marco p..current warming as ended,but further signs of more warming to come in the days ahead..This perhaps keeping that Jet stream weak..So we remain very much in the game.

 

[Blessed Weather]

No more posts moaning or discussing moaning please. Let's stick to discussing model output please. Thank you.

[northwestsnow]

After the deluges incoming tomorrow and wed ot does look good for a right dumping up North, elevated NE Yorkshire and Scotland will do really well IMO...

Esp places exposed to a North westerly..

Possibly NWales with potential.

Alas, being more towards the spine of the country and probably too far south means I won't see anything here I don't suppose.

The jet is meandering and inclined to move SE ..I lm hoping we see some wedges of heights to our North in the 10 day period...

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T240:

Pick the bones out of that, not that many.  Spread:

Looks like one of the Flumps!  The uncertainty into SE Europe is welcome, I’m not sure about the upstream uncertainty, will wait for the clusters if there are any!

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

ECMWF latest zonal winds... 

Latest zonal charts still says there might be something of interest at the start of February... 

[Brassmonkeylily]

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

You've got it. 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

Yes very worrying esp for Yorkshire and all the run off

[Weegaz]

2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

I think the vast majority, like myself, are searching for the next snowfall in our back gardens. It is concerning for many the next few days as you say, if it was snow the servers would have exploded

[Paul]

Not to say it can't be discussed in here, but there is also a thread specifically covering the severe weather over the coming days here

 

[mulzy]

FWIW, today’s ECM sub seasonal shows promise well into February.

[iand61]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes very worrying esp for Yorkshire and all the run off

And on this side of the Pennines as well.

if the rain amounts being talked about come off I’d imagine many of the records set on Boxing Day 2015 will be under threat.

a worrying time for anyone in a flood prone area and made even worse by all public buildings being out of bounds due to COVID although I imagine that will soon change if evacuations are needed.

[dragan]

plume of warm and drier air via the ECM, a welcome break for those waterlogged  

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC46.

[sebastiaan1973]

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[WinterWilf]

26 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this  thread seem to have no interest  in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy  cold events 8-10 days away .... 

Well you are one. Worry away.

Rain floods and storms are pretty common in this country every year. Like last year for one.

Snowy cold weather events are very much less common. It is much harder to get all the things to fall into place to produce memorable spell.

Therefore for many it is much more interesting for posters to look for cold than be worrying about normal UK weather.

For instance it is the 18th of Jan and it is already storm Christoph.

Post away with rain totals and flood warnings.

Others can post whatever charts interest them.