Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, is reasonable given other output today, a little amplification upstream and marginal to cold air over UK:

And a trough to our SE.

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, is reasonable given other output today, a little amplification upstream and marginal to cold air over UK:

And a trough to our SE.

Bit of a clutch tho Mike to where things were going???. Suppose you grab what you can tho

Edited January 18, 2021 by swfc

[nick sussex]

The shortwave nw of Ireland needs to go se at day 8 .

Thats key but will it ! 

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Bit of a clutch tho Mike to where things were going???. Suppose you grab what you can you 

Might be nothing, but small bits of amplifcation like that heading north are better at deflecting lows further south thus keeping UK on the colder side.

 

[Vikos]

8 minutes ago, IDO said:

I am up to about d12 before FI starts!

Well, that's way out of my understanding range, but ok, if you think so, why not. You must have your reasons for that. I won't crawl throu 10 pages back now of postings to find them.

That the overall patterns show a milder interlude, that's safe, but I wouldn't bank anythink after next weekend. Things can change fast, it's still very dynamic with a lot of powerful fluxes.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, swfc said:

Bit of a clutch tho Mike to where things were going???. Suppose you grab what you can you 

Yeah, the output not great at the moment, we kind of need to remember where we are with the aftermath of the SSW.  It seems clear that the trop response to the initial displacement has not benefited us, the split maybe still game in play, and there may be more pressure later as more forcing on the strat vortex:

But these events, and this one is a strong one, can impact 6 weeks or more after the initial event as we saw in March 2013.  But for now, it is about making the most of the pattern we have during the coldest part of winter, I’m sure many will see more snow, just not sure if I will see any!

[Tim Bland]

ECM clear that after a colder weekend with a dusting of snow for some it’s back to more rain this time next week. Last 2 runs below..

[swfc]

Ec looks pretty average. Suddenly looking at ssw, dates, back ground signals nao ao poor. Guess it's February here we come.

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Might be nothing, but small bits of amplifcation like that heading north are better at deflecting lows further south thus keeping UK on the colder side.

 

Yes I get that but the bar is getting set that low atm

[chris55]

So the Atlantic is poised to try and push through once again at day 6..... Will it make it through or will it trend south giving another chance at a boundary snowfall situation.

At 144 -168 id say wait until it ticks down to t96 before making any firm judgments.

Could be lovely and mild with a southerly waft, could miss us completely and stay chilly or it could cut in just right with copious snowfall for London. 

Yes we can all post the FI charts and enjoy/detest them but FI starts here IMO at least for UK conditions.

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The shortwave nw of Ireland needs to go se at day 8 .

Thats key but will it ! 

Not today unfortunately, but one to watch maybe. ECM makes less of the Arctic high this run and weakens the Greenie block faster too.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes I get that but the bar is getting set that low atm

Not much else to do I'm afraid. The bar does allow for that however as a wedge of heights is all that's really needed for a snow event for somewhere in the UK.

[Hotspur62]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM clear that after a colder weekend with a dusting of snow for some it’s back to more rain this time next week. Last 2 runs below..

Yes it looks like milder from early next week is the form horse although Scotland will stay cold throughout.Also as has been said by many on here t+ 144 is as far as we can look atm so maybe there could be corrections southwards of the mild/cold boundary in the UK.

 

GREAT MODEL WATCHING even if it is not showing what vast majority want to see(Scotland excluded)

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Not much else to do I'm afraid. The bar does allow for that however as a wedge of heights is all that's really needed for a snow event for somewhere in the UK.

I agree but check out the ec, it's a shocker. That said day 10 uppers incoming

Edited January 18, 2021 by swfc

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The shortwave nw of Ireland needs to go se at day 8 .

Thats key but will it ! 

No

Edited January 18, 2021 by That ECM

[Snowman.]

Just now, swfc said:

I agree but check out the ec, it's a shocker 

Oh no doubt about it, the EC is defo the worst run today but quite different from it's more amplified 0z run that at least offered glimmers of hope.

12z needs to find the hole it crawled out of and stay in there!

[nick sussex]

We have a second go at a shortwave tracking se on the ECM !

Now day 9 into 10 !

[winterof79]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM clear that after a colder weekend with a dusting of snow for some it’s back to more rain this time next week. Last 2 runs below..

Well they cannot agree at 120z so good luck with that forecast

ECM

UKMO

Edited January 18, 2021 by winterof79

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Yes it looks like milder from early next week is the form horse although Scotland will stay cold throughout.Also as has been said by many on here t+ 144 is as far as we can look atm so maybe there could be corrections southwards of the mild/cold boundary in the UK.

 

GREAT MODEL WATCHING even if it is not showing what vast majority want to see(Scotland excluded)

I would t say Scotland stays cold next week. Shows rain away from highest mountains right up to Northern Scotland? It’s probably milder than average for late Jan ? 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We have a second go at a shortwave tracking se on the ECM !

Now day 9 into 10 !

It did? I need a drawing please.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We have a second go at a shortwave tracking se on the ECM !

Now day 9 into 10 !

Great stuff nick

[Djdazzle]

I admire positivity (as opposed to mindless ramping), but it’s like scrounging for scraps from the table at the moment.

Historic February anybody?

Maybe we need an Atlantic reset because being stuck in the current pattern is hopeless for sustained cold.

 

 

[Snowman.]

Just now, That ECM said:

It did? I need a drawing please.

Small wedge above the low west of Scotland, with amplifcation behind.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We have a second go at a shortwave tracking se on the ECM !

Now day 9 into 10 !

I think that was a no as well. Vicar of Dibley, no no no no yes

[swfc]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

I think that was a no as well. Vicar of Dibley, no no no no yes

Yes I think I need to get on amazon ie industrial straw delivery, how did it come to this