Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[carinthian]

I would say thats a wintry chart Thursday going into Friday. Snow chances increasing further south into the British Isles based on latest UKMO output.

 C

[mountain shadow]

27 minutes ago, KTtom said:

That is one noisy chart! I can't even find the UK amongst that lot! I think the name of the chart (bottom left) speaks volumes . Talking of which, an absolute stinker of a ECM for those hoping for cold weather next week to hang on

That charts is nine days away of course.

Prior to that  the jet is suppressed further South.

 

[Kentspur]

One thing I've found interesting this year is that those zonal winds so far have been a complete opposite (mirror image) this Autumn/winter compared to last year, are we set for even further weakening into early Feb? GFS ensembles think so

[IDO]

Looking at my location in the south, certainly looking snowless at the end of the week into the following 5-days. The rain spikes are incessant so that will be the main take going forward with next weekend a cool down and then a return to slightly below average:

London 2m> 

Looking breezy in the south all week^^^.

The gefs mean in FI remains consistent but maybe as the flow from the west is tempered we get more mini-waves as per the ecm/gfs d10, around that time:

...so that should allow periodic top-ups of cold alternating with less cold.

The models remain very well connected in terms of FI and I suspect that contrary to expectations of entropy, that the SSWE imprint from strat>trop, could be argued that it is negentropic? I am assuming that the response has happened which I think is reasonable? Further warming's hopefully will ensue.

[KTtom]

25 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That charts is nine days away of course.

Prior to that  the jet is suppressed further South.

 

I make it 8 if you want to split hairs  Prior to that its dry after this weeks deluge (check feb1991blizzard post).

Edited January 18, 2021 by KTtom

[Frosty.]

Perturbation 6 please..with a cherry on top!

 

️  

[PiscesStar]

16 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I make it 8 if you want to split hairs  Prior to that its dry after this weeks deluge (check feb1991blizzard post).

And we want to see the jet dive south to get rid of that iberian high too in subsequent runs. I think we will from 19th onwards as this was the day the ssw was due to kick in!! 

[Windysun1]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Perturbation 6 please..with a cherry on top!

 

️  

I wouldn't be surprised if that is the trend we will start to see.

[PiscesStar]

34 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

One thing I've found interesting this year is that those zonal winds so far have been a complete opposite (mirror image) this Autumn/winter compared to last year, are we set for even further weakening into early Feb? GFS ensembles think so

Almost certainly as I thibk much of the downwelling is still to show 

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

So I think this is all anyone needs to know about the period from this Wednesday until the following Wednesday:

Southern areas: Rain at regular intervals. Possibly snow at times 

Northern areas: Snow at regular intervals. Possibly rain at times

Seems about right and in line with Exeter 

I think I put the snow line n of Carlisle/Newcastle a couple days ago. I see no reason to change that away from elevation. There will obvs be some drift either side of that line but if you’re looking for a lack of melt then that’s your current favoured point imo 

I know that general expectation is that this line comes south but not convinced this current background pattern is supportive of that 

guess we’ll find out ! 

[Vikos]

Good mornig!

I get a smell of a pattern/flow change.

This is lower strat at 30hpA

10day forecast--->

Would take some time for further downstream development, but signal look quite good for some N/Neasterly currents around change of month.

So we have to ride this mild wave, wich is quite common in colder winters. I doubt that we will have to suffer for a prolonged time with mildish westly winds.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Vikos

[Tim Bland]

GFSp raises an eyebrow at the end...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

deepest FI, but 2nd GFS run now to go for a 27/28 Dec 2000 type event!

[Vikos]

Some MJO forecasts

GFS  EC 

 

 

 

 

[Stuie]

36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

deepest FI, but 2nd GFS run now to go for a 27/28 Dec 2000 type event!

Not deepest FI at all, 6 days time, one to watch for sure.

[Tim Bland]

8 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

So I think this is all anyone needs to know about the period from this Wednesday until the following Wednesday:

Southern areas: Rain at regular intervals. Possibly snow at times 

Northern areas: Snow at regular intervals. Possibly rain at times

 

 

Looking at the ECM it’s more -South = Rain.   North =Rain .possibly snow at times.
ECM is snowless south of Manchester. Below is an app displaying ECM forecast. Even snow that does fall in the north will melt quickly with these temps. We need a big upgrade to turn this into a proper ‘cold spell’ . We need the whole ECM pattern to shift south 500 miles to bring snow to 80%+ of the population 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

I would say thats a wintry chart Thursday going into Friday. Snow chances increasing further south into the British Isles based on latest UKMO output.

 C

looks like UKMO coldest model in that range. Interest feature to move close to Southern England on Friday. There will be some engagement of the colder air to the north. Maybe , best chance of snow for the south so far.

 C

[Anthony Burden]

A cold spell starting Thursday could bring some surprises in terms of the white stuff.

A chance of some reaching further south,in terms of longevity is still up for grabs 

all depends on low pressure tracking along with Greenland high.

[northwestsnow]

Really disappointing 00z runs ...

Hopefully a lucky few will see some snow later this week...

That aside im struggling to find many positives...

 

[sheikhy]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

deepest FI, but 2nd GFS run now to go for a 27/28 Dec 2000 type event!

One of the most prettiest and best snowfalls i have witnessed in my time!!!what an event that was!!it was -4 -5 before that snowfall started!!remember the glittery frost on the cars and road!!what i would do for another moment like that

[Vikos]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really disappointing 00z runs ...

Hopefully a lucky few will see some snow later this week...

That aside im struggling to find many positives...

 

Don't search in determistic outputs. See the background signals. Those look promising

And first of all: Don't lose hope, keep the faith. This applies to alot these days, in GB as in GER and the rest of the continent

Sometimes there are things on earth more important then snow in the backyard...

[MKN]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp raises an eyebrow at the end...

Posting +384 charts is completely pointless. They will never verify particularly during winter. gfs would be better off only going out to +240. Even that is deep fi atm

[legritter]

Hi gang  , just a gut feeling but i think Ecm tonight could improve past 168hrs ,high pressure west of Greenland could aid us in the uk ,im hoping sometime today gfs will give us a Stonking run .All very interesting, think we could all do with a good old fashioned Scandinavia high ,and low pressure parked to our south , let me know if you find a chart showing this and I'll cook you sausage baps on your doorstep ,wearing a mask and social distancing and i have hand sanitizer by the bucket .Some interest now on our charts for Saturday, stay strong , please keep safe and enjoy our tough hobby ,cheers . 

[Tim Bland]

33 minutes ago, MKN said:

Posting +384 charts is completely pointless. They will never verify particularly during winter. gfs would be better off only going out to +240. Even that is deep fi atm

Perhaps, but this is the model output discussion so if a model shows it then it’s up for discussion. If you scroll up I have also commented on the near term and ECM etc so I’ve given a balanced view. 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Paul

[Newberryone]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

That charts is nine days away of course.

Prior to that  the jet is suppressed further South.

 

It may be nine days away but one can see as early as the 24th  those unwanted Iberian heights coming very much into play which seems to be the general theme going forward.