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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

very messy at d14:

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.e49c9cf15f3a7d9ec6e9a97aeae18aaa.png

With five nascent waves in mid-latitude? I would say the chances of seeing this chart repeated in our lifetimes are slim, let alone on the 18z!

Saying that, the ecm has been less progressive with the Pacific high (MJO mixed signals?) around d8 so gfs killing it at that time frame on this run may not be out there as it looked? Certainly it looks to shake things up a bit so hopefully it will trend?

NB: The US in Twitter-land were getting excited with the gfs forecast of the PV dropping in for a visit. This run scuppers that.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, northwestsnow said:

GEM 144...

image.thumb.png.0b6f6a25cdbb4701560e30711dbfccb5.png

Better than UKMO !

and GFS, has low further north! GFS is S of M4 event, and these always trend south nearer the time

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Look how close we were.

image.thumb.png.87a3fbaafc75da00f38ae42090c7eece.png

The really annoying thing is we had no cold before when we got Easerlies, this chart below just shows you, we don't even need A1 synoptics now, this back in December would have been tame, while it is a blink and you'll miss it, it would give non marginal, heavy snow showers all down the Eastern side of England.

image.thumb.png.8a2aac304fd6632103cba5e762f8a6fa.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Its round about this time every day( for the last week or so) I wheel out the come ON ecm line, with little effect so far admittedly..

So,a change of tactic, come ON please ecm, I was always taught to use manners afterall,let's see if it works!!

Banter aside just subtle hints of improvements for coldies, unfortunately the rain locally this week looks horrendous.

I will cycle to work through it gladly if it means as many as possible seeing some wintry weather thereafter..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

named storm time I think, this one cherry picked ensemble, but modeled on others too, north to be battered by blizzards and storm force winds?

 

'gens-3-1-96.png

'

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

Charts has been updated

cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)

GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark.  I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking;  Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.   

 

image.thumb.png.fcab47e3072024fe1f52d3643f1c0682.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
Just now, StingJet said:

GFS 12z still dialling in an F10 Bomb for Thursday, support from the Jet Stream is also amplified from this mornings 06z run, MetO 12z also amplifying Thursday's Storm, but the Jet taking the Storm further east towards Denmark.  I cannot recall a Storm of 950mb located over the North Sea in my 30+ years of Storm Tracking;  Oct 87 and Jan 2007 being the most notable.   

 

image.thumb.png.fcab47e3072024fe1f52d3643f1c0682.png

image.png

Would that cause a possible storm surge down the East coast, it looks frightening that chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
38 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes looks like we are entering a quite unsettled period Matt.Heavy rain and winds then I would imagine snowfall becoming more notable from the north from Thursday as the cold air cuts in at the rear of the low.

Then i think we are heading for a fascinating setup with the next Atlantic lows heading across towards the UK into the cold air.It's been a while since we have seen such a setup,which could run and run.

If you are a weather nerd then this coming period of battleground model outputs is one to enjoy.

 

Absolutely Phill, this winter certainly hasn't been boring on the model watching front! Lots to keep us interested going through the next few weeks.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM 144...

image.thumb.png.0b6f6a25cdbb4701560e30711dbfccb5.png

Better than UKMO !

GEM showing snow for the south next Saturday, Sunday and Monday

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

Charts has been updated

cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

Its not for todays run though lol

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Don't get too over excited over a good GFSop run...

Charts has been updated

cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

If you give gem an average result for that recent day which is obvs an error then it’s  doing ok since the ssw 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
21 minutes ago, Purga said:

Second SSW in full swing right now:

 

image.thumb.png.5dcd8d3be381197f27407a50293fcb98.pngimage.thumb.png.5b818e005464b7e260d718398b551e9a.png

 

Things progressing nicely (strat and MJO lead - overcoming ENSO influence). Looks like a much more interesting last third of Jan & into Feb.

A potential easterly flow could well be the next point of interest in modelling terms as we get into next week. Lots going on  

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)

The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless  the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Its not for todays run though lol

Come on...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Just now, Vikos said:

Come on...

He he

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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
5 minutes ago, Nath said:

Would that cause a possible storm surge down the East coast, it looks frightening that chart!

The Storm is forecast to bag out Friday as it moves further north and east, I would anticipate that the wraparound northerly will be markedly reduced in strength come Friday, to that effect minimising any notable storm surge down the east coast .... Nonetheless  the north sea not the most hospitable of places come Thursday, Sorry for the duplication .. I don't post often   Spent most of my forum time over the years on the GPS SpeedSurfing Site running the UK StormTrack Topic.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

GFS in deep FI shows how a Scandi-esque high can pop up out of the blue. Been waiting since the SSW for a chart like that to appear.  Also demonstrates how heights to our south aren't necessarily a problem if they can get sucked north.

Edited by Alexis
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