Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[cold snap]

Looking at the  GFS 06z ens towards the end , some are hinting at reverse zonality. 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Looking at the  GFS 06z ens towards the end , some are hinting at reverse zonality. 

Reverse psychology is even better?!..

Edited January 17, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Vikos]

From a german outlook site:

On January 17th, 2021, GFS expects that the polar vortex of Greenland at a height of around 16km (100 hPa, left) will join the main vortex over Siberia as a European trough by January 21st, 2021 (middle), thus turning the high-altitude current over Western and Central Europe on SW and there is temporary mitigation. With the further shift of the European trough to the east (right), the current turns back to NW directions and it will be wintry again on the weekend of January 23/24, 2021.

[IDO]

I think the latest Met Office Warnings sums it up for next week:

 

For the North, rain Tuesday, Wednesday and some of Thursday. No mention of snow atm.

The south gets the worst of it on Thursday. Rain totals above for the end of Thursday! Some regions getting 125% of their Jan averages in a few days!

[Bartlett High]

28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the latest models, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, I smell it in the air..the cold is being prolonged?..nuff said!

Waiting for 'One model to rule them all'

[Polar Maritime]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think the latest Met Office Warnings sums it up for next week:

 

For the North, rain Tuesday, Wednesday and some of Thursday. No mention of snow atm.

The south gets the worst of it on Thursday. Rain totals above for the end of Thursday! Some regions getting 125% of their Jan averages in a few days!

For the first half of the week yes not all week... Meto do mention snow showers pushing South to all areas on Thursday... But yes a milder very wet few days coming up to start the week which was expected given the Models recently with flooding a major concern, then colder air pushing South from Thursday again as per recent Models.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Much milder outlook at the moment!

Those ens show a hell of a lot of spread and only highlight the uncertainty rather than pointing to a much milder outlook.

[Alexis]

10 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think the latest Met Office Warnings sums it up for next week:

 

For the North, rain Tuesday, Wednesday and some of Thursday. No mention of snow atm.

The south gets the worst of it on Thursday. Rain totals above for the end of Thursday! Some regions getting 125% of their Jan averages in a few days!

Which means I'll probably end up with a well below average CET for January, well above rainfall, but snowless!

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Reverse psychology is even better?!..

Oh you can't beat reverse psychology Jon!  The ride of winter 2020/21 continues........

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

For the first half of the week yes not all week... Meto do mention snow showers pushing South to all areas on Thursday... But yes a milder very wet few days coming up to start the week which was expected given the Models recently with flooding a major concern, then colder air pushing South from Thursday again as per recent Models.

Yes, I did say "atm" as I thought that with a solid forecast for snow later in the week they may have put up a yellow:

 

[legritter]

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, legritter said:

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

I hope its got better odds than the Postcode Lottery though...I ain't won in years.. love your posts Legritter,hope your well.

It seems the Vortex wants to drop in and say hi. Your more than welcome mate..

 

[Stuie]

Just flicked through the jest stream on the GFS and it`s not a pretty sight. It may aid battleground scenarios but southerly it`s not in the foreseeable.

[Polar Maritime]

52 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, I did say "atm" as I thought that with a solid forecast for snow later in the week they may have put up a yellow:

 

The METO never have and never will put warnings out past 4 days, so that's understandable.

Edit- This is incorrect on my behalf, they do put warnings out up to 7 days ahead

Edited January 17, 2021 by Polar Maritime
Slipped a cog..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

The METO never have and never will put warnings out past 4 days, so that's understandable.

They have many a time.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, legritter said:

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

Oh man, I would love a sausage bap right now!...I still believe the change too mild beyond the upcoming cold plunge shown on the 0z / 6z. is being delayed?!..come on ssw, do your stuff, make a repeat of the last ssw  that delivered.. 2016 March..come on, you can do it..if you really chew it!  

Edited January 17, 2021 by Jon Snow

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not a single member below -10c this month! Says it all really.

[Polar Maritime]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They have many a time.

Not that I can ever remember, but I will leave the meto discussion.

Edit- You are correct after asking them directly they can/have put them out up to 7 days ahead. So I will retract my statement

Edited January 17, 2021 by Polar Maritime
Slipped a cog..

[markw2680]

21 minutes ago, legritter said:

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

Great post mate, I for one is looking forward to a good old fashioned battleground uk.

let’s just hope it don’t end up being a cold sausage sarnie with a carling shandy ayy.

I do feel there will be some fairly big swings in the output in the coming days

[Frosty.]

Ok look..I’m nae interested in mild crap..whatsoever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...but, for sure there is some wintry potential longer term into the end of Jan / early Feb according too the GEFS 6z..just to show how unbiased I am!

Edited January 17, 2021 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Well, a small step in the right direction this morning looking at the 00z data.

Exeter sticking with the script still.

More upgrades please 12zs...

[johnholmes]

Sunday 17 Jan

Starting with the anomaly charts today

Ec-gfs and both show a closed upper ridge NE Canada then a general westerly into the UK, ec a touch N of W, and the contour height shown is fairly cold, the 528 DM line over the northern half of Scotland, more so on ec. Both show a more or less westerly east of the major trough off the western US seaboard over the UK and out into a trough down the Adriatic area.

 

Noaa 6-10 also has a closed upper high as the other two with quite a high anomaly showing. Don’t be mislead by the value though as this indicates where the major upper trough usually sits. Similar to the other two and like its issue yesterday and the day before the main flow over much of the UK is indicated as largely westerly , and again like the other two from way west off N America.

So the 6-10 day pattern seems fairly sure to be along these lines? The 8-14 also fits this so possibly for 2 weeks?

Finally a look at the ECMWF two sets of charts, first the one which I’ve shown several days followed by another EC link with the charts shown as colour for the 10 day period

The charts show a flow from north of west on the first two days (23-24) and starting to lose this flow by 25 th along with the colder 850 temperatures, below -5 C at first. By the end of the run (27th) and the flow is backing westerly on the 500 and surface charts along with the 850 zero line receding up to the Scottish border

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

The final set of charts shows this pattern in a series of charts in colour, the temperatures/colours down the right hand side

These charts suggest colder 850 mb values for then looking to the west we can see the next area of warmer 850’x moving east to wards the UK. So most models seem to suggest any cold spell are probable between  22/23-25/26. Beyond that looking at the ECMWF charts and another less cold/milder spell?

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

So after all that data output what seems to be the most likely outcome?

To me colder air looks likely with some kind of flow between N and NW, 500 mb and surface, as outlined above. Beyond that then I leave it to others to suggest what may happen.

My last set with so many charts, too time consuming I’m afraid. I will try to post the anomaly set and the links to the other two as I get time.

Very late today due to a mix of a walk then watching the slalom skiing from Flachau in Austria, our top skier came 12 th today and, I think, 8th yesterday. Both races were ‘Wengen’ races transferred due to a rapid increase in Covid, first in Wengen then in Kiztbuhel.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

I think the latest Met Office Warnings sums it up for next week:

 

For the North, rain Tuesday, Wednesday and some of Thursday. No mention of snow atm.

The south gets the worst of it on Thursday. Rain totals above for the end of Thursday! Some regions getting 125% of their Jan averages in a few days!

Thursday according to GFS we're in the game at least

[Snowman.]

Wedges appearing in the darkest depths of the 6z GEFS.. akin to the OP very weak surface heights N/NE bringing Easterly winds, not all are alinged correctly but just an observation.

[78/79]

1 hour ago, legritter said:

Looking at charts and reading around various sites etc and going by very volatile output we are heading for a very serious spell of wintry weather .copious rain ,gales ,sleet SNOW , a Fair CHANCE of snow even at lower levels, yet to be forecast because of the range involved, im liking the  thought of disturbances approaching the UK later this week, but this is 5 to 6 days away ,so fingers crossed for the particular area you live in ,think its going to be a postcode Lottery on this one With BS25 in the sweetspot !!! .so no Beest yet ,but Snow chances for many going by current output. Squirrels darting about in the garden chattering to themselves something about SLIders , local Donkey muttered theres a 510 dam coming , a fair Ecm earlier, gfs well another wind up coming in 3 hour's time , take care all ,and yes sausage bap brown sauce and Stellas on me , . 

 

Given your location legritter, I'd be inclined to pitch a tent up at Crooks Peak if it's snow you're after the way things are going on