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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not looking too great, on this morning GFS at T+144... Slidylon-5: coldikind's last best hope for piste?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

More interesting than its previous run. Here’s hoping.

37204C62-385A-4125-A794-1CF8CDEDED69.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, sheikhy said:

Atlantic train derailed at 180 hours on the 06?for the time being?!!!

This is the current favoured direction of travel with a ridge  .... let’s see how the 06z evolves from here. Other nwp tracks it into W Europe 

Para not running yet ......

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.019efeaf17604821113d15157c1fc30a.png

Cold air clinging on , the 0z had SWlies over us at this point 

image.thumb.png.4fed611bd867f80a7dc4630dc87e4ca3.png

Probably just a delay 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
35 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mild held back further again at 192

 

gfsnh-1-192.png

gfsnh-1-198 (2).png

So far it does feel like this winter will be remembered as ‘cold but not cold enough’ in terms of widespread snow. Obviously still time for that to change though.

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Posted
  • Location: Lisburn
  • Location: Lisburn
5 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.019efeaf17604821113d15157c1fc30a.png

Cold air clinging on , the 0z had SWlies over us at this point 

image.thumb.png.4fed611bd867f80a7dc4630dc87e4ca3.png

Probably just a delay 

SWlies over here in Northern Ireland  spell moisture rich mild weather, unless we get a fridge opened up from the North or East to cool the dampness

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

After a poor start the GFS 06 hrs run tries to retrieve the situation as more forcing appears on the pattern over Western Europe with a renewed surge of Arctic heights .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

After a poor start the GFS 06 hrs run tries to retrieve the situation as more forcing appears on the pattern over Western Europe with a renewed surge of Arctic heights .

 

Yeah, you can see this in the anomaly charts, spoilt by heights to our south though.

 

gfsnh-12-234.png

gfsnh-12-240 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

cor_day6_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png  cor_day8_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png  cor_day10_HGT_P1000_G2NHX.png

 

I suspect the gem day 10 recent return is missing rather than below 0! 
 

clear evidence that the reversal has had an effect on the stats ....will be interesting to see if there is a sustained recovery second half jan or whether the ongoing weak strat flow and further potential drops later in the month affect the nwp. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, Marko1690 said:

SWlies over here in Northern Ireland  spell moisture rich mild weather, unless we get a fridge opened up from the North or East to cool the dampness

Probably need a freezer ......

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Just now, bluearmy said:

I suspect the gem day 10 recent return is missing rather than below 0! 
 

clear evidence that the reversal has had an effect on the stats ....will be interesting to see if there is a sustained recovery second half jan or whether the ongoing weak strat flow and further potential drops later in the month affect the nwp. 

GEM just failed.

Second, atm no need to look at GFS/op outputs after +144h

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I know it's a wee bit early in the season, but charts like these make me drool in anticipation, of the mouthwatering aroma of real jerk chicken. With some lovely background real reggae, of course!:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

I know it's a wee bit early in the season, but charts like these make me drool in anticipation, of the mouthwatering aroma of real jerk chicken. With some lovely background real reggae, of course!:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

ddzx4wj-4b718f00-7713-4c24-8db4-d5437560

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Thanks. If anything shows the effect of the SSW, it is this.
Not the amplified pattern, the Greenland High, or an Easterly from Russia to Canada.
The models are losing their grip on the situation.

We are only just getting started with the effects of the SSW.
The current amplified pattern that is shown in the output is not necessarily the result of the SSW, even if it is consistent with it. So if there is a High Latitude Block (HLB) in the output, there is no way anyone can say with certainty that it was the result of the SSW. Nature doesn't do labelling for the convenience of scientists.
We have not seen, as it sometimes happens, a sudden switch from a tight zonal pattern to an amplified pattern that was obviously the result of the SSW. This season we already were in an amplified pattern beforehand. Any further amplified/blocked patterns we get to see in the output (or perhaps the lack thereof) can only be ascribed to the SSW with terms like: 'possibly', 'likely', 'consistent with' etc. So everyone be careful with those oneliners accompanied by charts, "SSW clearly shows its hand"/"Rubbish SSW, did not work in our favour".

We barely passed the 10 day mark after the SSW, the effects are going to be trickling in slowly, in a waxing and waning manner, over the next few weeks, or even months. The article that @sebastiaan1973 shared in this thread several times claims that an SSW of the European blocking type has its strongest influence after about 35 days, so that would take us to the middle of February.
Now that does not say anything about cold in our part of the world, but it does say something about the reliability of, for example, ensemble means in deep FI. They might very well be the last ones to pick it up if something changes. The real setup of patterns might very well sit outside the current spread.

True words, needs to be pinned! Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

Even the gfs para has given up.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
21 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Mild held back further again at 192

 

gfsnh-1-192.png

gfsnh-1-198 (2).png

Wishy washy cold rain for us in the south even if those cooler uppers hang on a day longer. Not really a pattern change as such, just variations on a theme within a big envelope (850s) at that point in time. The gefs show there is not likely a miraculous way for us to move to deeper cold.

A flatter pattern very likely but plenty of subtle clusters within that generalisation, but nothing of real interest for the rest of Jan IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Interesting that the whole move from the cold spell to the milder for the south pattern seems to be incrementally slowing with each days runs. I wonder if come a few days times everything will be even slower and as a result ,further south. Just a thought..not a prediction.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
11 minutes ago, IDO said:

Wishy washy cold rain for us in the south even if those cooler uppers hang on a day longer. Not really a pattern change as such, just variations on a theme within a big envelope (850s) at that point in time. The gefs show there is not likely a miraculous way for us to move to deeper cold.

A flatter pattern very likely but plenty of subtle clusters within that generalisation, but nothing of real interest for the rest of Jan IMHO.

I disagree, a flatter pattern is favoured for sure, but taking the GEFS as gospel past 168 isn't wise especially with the fluid situation over the Arctic.. would we really be counting our chickens if it showed Nirvana past 168?

Deep cold isn't on the table at all atm though I'll agree with that.

Just to highlight my point GEFS show a notable shift in uppers compared to 00z

 

gensnh-31-0-180 (1).png

gensnh-31-0-186.png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

Deepest of FI and again JFF , LP delivers snow for the UK ............

image.thumb.png.5012cde985359a34f3dc3f80cbeeff00.png

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