Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[sebastiaan1973]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think we have to view SSW effects as a bonus. Like with most things regarding UK, we need luck.

The SSW in 2019 delivered nothing for the UK either, so it shouldn’t have come as a big surprise.

There is one big difference with 2019, in that year there was no significant downwelling. Now there is

[chionomaniac]

Following on from my last post, I was hoping I would be totally wrong in my reading of post day 6. Depressingly I am not on the GFS and ECM fronts.  Though it is a good exercise for anyone wanting to improve their forecasting skills.

I will try and do the same tomorrow, subject to football and vaccination delays

[IDO]

Post-d10 we see what has been signposted for a few days, the sPV moving towards Canada and the imprint on the trop following suite:

mean gfs 12z>

This is why we are unlikely to get any sustained cold till at least February. Of course, once the tPV moved to our NW we are in that dreaded Winter killer flow. Thankfully the experts expect a second warming and maybe that can do a rejig? 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 - total dog’s breakfast

I reckon you see these things in the model outlook, but do you see them when looking through the archive charts of things that have actually happened?  I haven’t seen this in those archives.  Maybe ECM breaking new ground, more likely just wrong!

Wow Mike just check out that NH profile..it almost looks like Hellboy.. 

Seriously look at the state of the Vortex...its mangled beyond recognition...We should be looking at better scenarios at the surface than what is being shown..But I think most in here will agree,just like the pros...the models are having a shocker this Winter..All of them are really struggling to nail down a pattern for more than 1 day.

Edited January 16, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Nice experiment.

Thanks Seb. It is bloomin’ difficult not looking at the models later on when they are easily available. I have managed it twice so far.  Another 5 days to go

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Following on from my last post, I was hoping I would be totally wrong in my reading of post day 6. Depressingly I am not on the GFS and ECM fronts.  Though it is a good exercise for anyone wanting to improve their forecasting skills.

I will try and do the same tomorrow, subject to football and vaccination delays

Not lookimg good is it Chino

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240 - the winter that never was:

But I’m convinced it is wrong, with nothing off the Atlantic, no vortex to drive it, this has to be wrong.  Hope so...

Well It’s a good wintry run for Scotland. The mild air doesn’t make it into northern parts. We need whole pattern to shift 500+ miles south not much to ask......  

Edited January 16, 2021 by Daniel*

[Jason H]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Mon 25th Jan, can it be ignored, 3 models now show it turning crap on that date? hopefully all wrong, hmmm but I do wonder, 3 models wrong big ask even FI

Absolutely. 9 days away. Not a fig of verifying.

[chris55]

Just checked ECM, looks a bit excited to me. A little OTT with the LOW day 5-7 which forces the pattern north. 

Be interesting where it sits in the ensemble spread later

 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Not lookimg good is it Chino

Lol. A few days ago from day 6, it wasn’t looking too bad, but not as good now. But I also know that things can change very quickly, so never write off anything.

[sebastiaan1973]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Thanks Seb. It is bloomin’ difficult not looking at the models later on when they are easily available. I have managed it twice so far.  Another 5 days to go

I know, it's hard.  Sometimes i do a retro-experiment. No tv, internet, smartphone, no instruments or whatever, just my eyes to tell me what kind of weather it is and will be. Looking at the weathercock and the clouds.

Just like our ancestors did.

Edited January 16, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[nick sussex]

At this range the jet position will change . 

So it could either remove what little cold there is further to the north or have that further south .

The problem is this seems just a matter of time before the jet moves ne unless some height rises occur to the ne to add some forcing onto that .

Overall this looks at best a slush fest unless you’re on top of a hill . The stage is really set early on because of the inability to get low pressure further to the se so your starting point is already a hard slog because the clear signal is to edge the Greenland ridge further to the west , it’s then upto the Arctic high to try and force the low further se .

Unfortunately several parcels of vorticity head sw helping to deepen  the low which then tries to move ne in response to that .

Whether we can see some early changes which can help we’ll just have to hope that occurs .

 

[Roger J Smith]

An extreme weather event on day five on the leading model ... that's got to be the headline today.

Verbatim that would be raking most of northern England and southern Scotland with very strong winds  gusting to 60 or 70 knots, and cold enough for blizzards on higher ground all over the region, even if a bit marginal for lowland snow. 

The depiction has some support on other models although I don't see anything extreme on any other model at this point.

If something that extreme actually happens I don't know if we could take the later progression all that seriously, a low that strong could be part of some fairly volatile changes about to take place over most of northwest Europe beyond day 5. Might expect corrections towards more of a digging storm track with recurving lows through France into North Sea possibly. 

 

[E17boy]

I think from the output the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately the jigsaw has not been our friend that high in the north is in the wrong place for us to achieve the cold we are hunting. Looks like as I suspected earlier the last 2 weeks of January of bringing some hope to us is at a distance. Instead we are now staring into the barrel of the Atlantic and some kind of weather from the SW.

I think a lot of hope was pinned on the SSW and I put my hands up to being guilty there as well to some extent. The SSW can only be a benefit to us if all the blocks fall into place. Unfortunately I think being realistic we have to say we have missed the ticket this time.

We still will have 4 weeks of February and some part of March left in our favour to have a chance to catch something worthwhile, but looks as if that clock will begin to tick now and time will not wait for us where we want it to. The ECM may be wrong and tomorrow we may see another flip but for now no bumming around the horizon seems to have darkened for us coldies. 

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

An extreme weather event on day five on the leading model ... that's got to be the headline today.

Verbatim that would be raking most of northern England and southern Scotland with very strong winds  gusting to 60 or 70 knots, and cold enough for blizzards on higher ground all over the region, even if a bit marginal for lowland snow. 

The depiction has some support on other models although I don't see anything extreme on any other model at this point.

If something that extreme actually happens I don't know if we could take the later progression all that seriously, a low that strong could be part of some fairly volatile changes about to take place over most of northwest Europe beyond day 5. Might expect corrections towards more of a digging storm track with recurving lows through France into North Sea possibly. 

 

That is a monster storm and snow would be an issue for high growing to the north and west right?

[JBMWeatherForever]

I personally see a trend reversal beginning. 

Narnia synoptics imminent ! 

[daz_4]

With GEFS trending milder and milder I'm afraid this is it for January. By middle of the next week all cold air will be gone from Central Europe and we will be back fighting for scraps. This week delivered more for me than the last two winters combined but the bar is really low in that regards.

[Roger J Smith]

Tha track of the day five monster seems to be mostly over land until map time, it's only a few miles east of Berwick if you untangle the isobars, from a wave 24h previous over southeast Ireland, so the track looks like central Wales to Pennines to Newcastle. Deepening at 2 mb an hour all the way. You would have to think that on higher ground in Yorkshire, northeast England, a sleety mix turning to windblown snow, near sea level rain turning to sleet. Further out, bands of wintry showers from Irish Sea into most of central England moving more west to east across East Anglia, but 50-60 knot wind gusts with them. 

It would be a major weather event regardless of temperature profiles. 

[Vikos]

I put my bet on this storm low, it will do some damage to the patterns (I guess). So 21st - 25th is my time of change, anything after that is pure guessing.

 

[Daniel*]

Really highlights the large differences between north and south on ECM 12z.

Edinburgh & London 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I think from the output the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately the jigsaw has not been our friend that high in the north is in the wrong place for us to achieve the cold we are hunting. Looks like as I suspected earlier the last 2 weeks of January of bringing some hope to us is at a distance. Instead we are now staring into the barrel of the Atlantic and some kind of weather from the SW.

I think a lot of hope was pinned on the SSW and I put my hands up to being guilty there as well to some extent. The SSW can only be a benefit to us if all the blocks fall into place. Unfortunately I think being realistic we have to say we have missed the ticket this time.

We still will have 4 weeks of February and some part of March left in our favour to have a chance to catch something worthwhile, but looks as if that clock will begin to tick now and time will not wait for us where we want it to. The ECM may be wrong and tomorrow we may see another flip but for now no bumming around the horizon seems to have darkened for us coldies. 

 

Can't really agree with that mate...I respect your opinion of course,but firstly the initial SSW may not have impacted us,but we possibly have the outcome of a secondary warming...which COULD influence us more next time..The vortex is an a sorry state,and the NH still looks primed to blocking for me..I certainly can't see a raging Swtly getting going anytime soon..The models are all over the place beyond day 5 or 6,and its only gonna be foolish in making predictions at day 10 and beyond based on the GFS and many runs.Plenty of scope for improvement.

[Cleeve Hill]

The CET as of 15th Jan is 2.3C, that's 1.2c below the average. Thats says it all guys. 

We've seen blocked synoptics now for 3 weeks with snow for many. Just look as some of the snowfall totals in Scotland compared to recent years. Even in the Cotswolds there have been 3 separate snow events since Christmas. 

Winter is truly here and the remainder of January holds alot of interest for below average temps. 

February of course is the coldest month statistically so lots to look forward to with severely weakened Trop Vortex. 

Dont be disheartened by charts at 240 as we should know by now, these rarely verify. 

 

[chionomaniac]

I wonder how many times that west based -NAOs have followed SSWs?  And then moved further west allowing for the initial Atlantic undercut leaving the UK in the firing line, with the NAO slowly turning positive and a return of more zonal conditions.  It has happened before in 2009. I wonder has it been a recurring theme over the years.

[danthetan]

Heres the latest fax chart for Tuesday and compare it to last nights fax we can clearly see theres is much better separation between the two lows which should help further down the line. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

I think from the output the writing is on the wall. Unfortunately the jigsaw has not been our friend that high in the north is in the wrong place for us to achieve the cold we are hunting. Looks like as I suspected earlier the last 2 weeks of January of bringing some hope to us is at a distance. Instead we are now staring into the barrel of the Atlantic and some kind of weather from the SW.

I think a lot of hope was pinned on the SSW and I put my hands up to being guilty there as well to some extent. The SSW can only be a benefit to us if all the blocks fall into place. Unfortunately I think being realistic we have to say we have missed the ticket this time.

We still will have 4 weeks of February and some part of March left in our favour to have a chance to catch something worthwhile, but looks as if that clock will begin to tick now and time will not wait for us where we want it to. The ECM may be wrong and tomorrow we may see another flip but for now no bumming around the horizon seems to have darkened for us coldies. 

 

I disagree, you cannot write this winter off yet - because regardless of the mess the models are making with the future developments, the one thing that is for sure, is that there is no trop vortex sat over Canada and Greenland forcing endless depressions over us...there just isn’t.  The easterlies driven by the SSW now look to be going north of us on the model output , but it is very early days since yesterdays split in the strat vortex, that will have an effect in a week or two as well, so the writing is not on the wall, it hasn’t even been written yet!  

Assuming the ECM det is complete rubbish, and something more like the UKMO happens, I do wonder if Greenland is not the eventual direction we should be looking in, like 2013 when it was a quite modest wedge that gave the snow post SSW...