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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks Tim .

Normally the go to model in here is the one with the coldest outcome ! Lol 

Haha yes...I always say I am following the ‘more reliable GFSp’ but if the GFS showed a snow storm later I’d be all over it and ignoring the P fickle bunch us snow chasers. It’s getting a bit desperate to find any interest away from the far north

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

There’s quite a difference with a more ese  jet track into the U.K. v a more ene one .

Once that troughing which deepens over the UK and Western Europe starts to fill the ese track if we could manage that could help develop a mini Scandi  ridge .

Will be interested to see the GEFS to see whether any do that .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
59 minutes ago, Don said:

That's correct, nothing new from that tweet from what I can see.  Will just have to see whether the strat will override this signal during late January and February?

So far this season La Nina from observation has had minimal effect, overridden by other factors.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There’s quite a difference with a more ese  jet track into the U.K. v a more ene one .

Once that troughing which deepens over the UK and Western Europe starts to fill the ese track if we could manage that could help develop a mini Scandi  ridge .

Will be interested to see the GEFS to see whether any do that .

 

There is a little cluster in support of the Ukmo, but not many. Attached a cherry picked ensemble

gensnh-7-1-144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
25 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Very interesting NH profile on the GFS(p) 12z at day 10. Hardly a sign of an organised PV setting up so there’s still lots of interest going forward IMO.

B08F6C48-54BE-4479-83AE-EBED82963B6B.png

That has major and lasting trop impacts from SSW written all over it. Easterlies from Ural Mountains to Eastern seaboard. Crazy! 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
13 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

As far as I know the gfsp will replace the current gfs shortly. The gfsp will become the gfs in effect...

 If I remember rightly The GFSP will replace the current GFS in mid February 2021 I am stand to be corrected

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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
16 minutes ago, Griff said:

Day 10 yes parallel... Jff

I need some entertainment 

gfsnh-0-240.png

gfsnh-1-240.png

A step forward for cold fans this eve after some significant leaps backward in recent days. Anecdotally I’ve been reasonably impressed with the para... it’s still not a patch on the ECM but it *seems* a tad more consistent and less prone to volatile swings.

The UKMO has a stronger and slightly Closer high to the NW and has trended the nasty midweek low to a more southerly track. This makes things les clear cut vis precipitation types...

In fact, is snow on the northern edge of the midweek system (or on the returning occlusion as it pivots across N England alla ECM) out of the question?


Para

image.thumb.png.5618df3a6f14a1a3dbffab66ce075c83.png
 

Op

image.thumb.gif.6b5d47ce834a63509a64be6282ab097d.gif

GEM

image.thumb.png.9c98656106d6a937da336ec193f4ff1f.png

Some interest for C/S England there perhaps...

Shorter range models coming into view now too...

Arpege

image.thumb.png.90aa69a1829ba59e8044f3641b42aa2a.png

ECM, never to be trusted with precip types, was even more outlandish with heavy snow as the low pivots through Scotland 

DCE47C75-1DD2-4687-A187-CE49DD9E7FAA.thumb.png.c691539b81d4093b626d3eeb2800498f.png

Icon does something similar

image.thumb.png.2b0fdb68b1d3a54527de99c6260076da.png

I realise models can overdo snowfall in these scenarios but as you can see it’s well supported... if the southerly trend continues there could be a very significant rain —>snow transition for some.

The para shows all is not lost in FI as well so keep those toys under the pram cover for a bit longer yet folks!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

At  T180 the gfsP would have about 20% support from the gefs with the majority similar to the op and joined by the control:

gens_panel_ggk7.png mean>gensnh-31-1-180.thumb.png.f95f10050e12d5072d758c8980fdb600.png

The gfsP calling card has been that it tends to be the most amplified, possibly due to the input from the ecm team. Not a long shot but clearly not the most likely ATM.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Its not perfect but the way the UKMO is dragging the core of the heights west and building north is certainly noteworthy, if both the GFS and ECM were showing this UKMO chart but the UKMO wasn’t we would all be very nervous as the UKMO has often been the spoiler in the past, it’s a nice chart IMO, prove your worth and you shall be king UKMO (that’s how it works... right? )

 

 

2B803027-9CBE-4109-B6D8-077650BFA9D6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

No one dares to shout out BOOOOM, yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

There is a little cluster in support of the Ukmo, but not many. Attached a cherry picked ensemble

gensnh-7-1-144.png

We’re looking past that point to when that troughing fills . A shortwave running ese could help develop a small ridge to its north if we get that slack pressure pattern over central west Europe .

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
6 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

A step forward for cold fans this eve after some significant leaps backward in recent days. Anecdotally I’ve been reasonably impressed with the para... it’s still not a patch on the ECM but it *seems* a tad more consistent and less prone to volatile swings.

The UKMO has a stronger and slightly Closer high to the NW and has trended the nasty midweek low to a more southerly track. This makes things les clear cut vis precipitation types...

In fact, is snow on the northern edge of the midweek system (or on the returning occlusion as it pivots across N England alla ECM) out of the question?


Para

image.thumb.png.5618df3a6f14a1a3dbffab66ce075c83.png
 

Op

image.thumb.gif.6b5d47ce834a63509a64be6282ab097d.gif

GEM

image.thumb.png.9c98656106d6a937da336ec193f4ff1f.png

Some interest for C/S England there perhaps...

Shorter range models coming into view now too...

Arpege

image.thumb.png.90aa69a1829ba59e8044f3641b42aa2a.png

ECM, never to be trusted with precip types, was even more outlandish with heavy snow as the low pivots through Scotland 

DCE47C75-1DD2-4687-A187-CE49DD9E7FAA.thumb.png.c691539b81d4093b626d3eeb2800498f.png

Icon does something similar

image.thumb.png.2b0fdb68b1d3a54527de99c6260076da.png

I realise models can overdo snowfall in these scenarios but as you can see it’s well supported... if the southerly trend continues there could be a very significant rain —>snow transition for some.

The para shows all is not lost in FI as well so keep those toys under the pram cover for a bit longer yet folks!

After this mornings massive fail the "snow accumulations to low levels in SE" and the fact the Icon and UKV have been superb in forecasting only rain/ sleet along places such as the Thames estuary all winter so far id def be inclined to stick to these models, Arpege not bad either but I wouldn't place any faith in the likes of GEM Harmonie and ECM, but maybe its different for other regions not sure how these models have fared elsewhere?

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Mean looks closer to UKMO than it’s operational to me 

A1F422D0-B820-42BF-BB1A-6EEBCF55B55E.thumb.png.51f1f7428dea72c8b9494169f5d68f29.pngE12E1DFA-F506-4966-9B2D-7E56623D1A99.thumb.gif.7ae440288f9c723f1460c60c498a96aa.gifEAE41BD2-8C8C-46A6-98C0-A8D6F18D843F.thumb.png.79e61c95e230571233319ca86a3cc96a.png

It doesn’t to me seems like a fairly good match. The blocking is poor unlike UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

So far this season La Nina from observation has had minimal effect, overridden by other factors.

Really? I think this winter so far has followed what is expected from a La Niña pattern with higher pressure in the mid- Atlantic and a meandering jet stream 

1FC22610-4641-45E0-94A9-D62E730C2B53.png

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 12z’s have repaired a little of the damage done over the past few days but there’s a long way to go to get back to the boom charts from earlier this week ......

 

Was there ever a doubt that it won’t be like that? ?

lets see what ec delivery brings us for lunch. I ordered something cold...

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Our old friend the Russian high appearing in far FI. Perhaps this could back west a little?...getting Deja vu with early Dec

CDF414B6-0E03-4BB5-91C5-AB731287887E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

Surely the gFS and s overcooking that low next week given the NAO forecast doesn't support it. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Our old friend the Russian high appearing in far FI. Perhaps this could back west a little?...getting Deja vu with early Dec

CDF414B6-0E03-4BB5-91C5-AB731287887E.png

Well the latter parts of the gfs strat output recently shows the upcoming set up of Asian vortex and Canadian ridge being reversed .....

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I feel a little more optimistic after seeing UKMO this evening.

Over to you ECM..

Defo up grade from UKMO regarding depth of cold. Much lower 850mb temps values shown by Friday even down to the south coast. Signs of cold air advection  out of Northern Scandinavia by end of run. Should be interesting to see the fax charts when updated. The lower temps more widespread over the North of the UK mid -week.  Could be some interesting weather to develop . GFS keeps less cold uppers out to 144t. See where ECM run goes . 

c

UN144-7.gif

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