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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

 

ecm day 10.png

gfs 10 day.png

This is what I’ve been trying to tell for ages now. Thank you for your post! 

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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

I too am wondering why theres so much despondency... just look at the current GFS and ECM runs for day ten... they are building significant blocking both over Greenland and Scandinavia, features which are either currently absent of weak/transient. Theres a run of Easterlies to our North, and the (addmitedly) vigorous jet stream is still tracking south of the UK. All this is consistently predicted now to happen before the months out. The trend is good for cold.

Not sure why some people are thinking the SSW has failed or will continue to fail. Those (sorry for the cliche) building blocks, are expected to be in place. It really wouldnt take much of a seismic shift for all that proper cold to arrive at our doorstep although we may have to wait until next month.

IMHO theres no pattern change to lasting mild, but perhaps a stormy changable mobile pattern with plenty of very cold snowy incursions if not a Big Freeze itself.

 

ecm day 10.png

gfs 10 day.png

loving your positivity and 'mini' RAMP.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

ecm day 10.png

gfs 10 day.png

If it wasn't for those heights to the south, the outlook would be pretty good as those lows would be able to track further south bringing more of the UK into potential fun and games!  

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

He actually said RECENT model guidance .

We are moving in the wrong direction IMO.

A fairly brief north westerly followed by the euro high pushing the jet north sounds a reasonable shout to me ...

How I read it is that La Nina teleconnects with milder weather in the second half of the UK winter. Something we already knew and which can be different this year by means of the SSW.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:
How I read it is that La Nina teleconnects with milder weather in the second half of the UK winter. Something we already knew and which can be different this year by means of the SSW.

That's correct, nothing new from that tweet from what I can see.  Will just have to see whether the strat will override this signal during late January and February?

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Comparing UKMO to yesterday, a clear southwards movement at both timeframes. Nothing crazy different but better than going the other way!

Today’s 120 vs yday 144

5B391C68-6F4F-4088-AD88-D3B0871CE3C6.thumb.gif.9e258c3c6acdbf9b677c7cb3ceb2cc2a.gif

A9F2E7F2-8093-4CBA-ACA6-FCC61B39CF81.thumb.gif.a15ab0de66ec35f55b53c5edafc04f8b.gif

today’s 96 v yday 120

88EC755D-C2EC-43CD-AC44-654DFF0AC868.thumb.gif.3ee09e0b41685c1ec82aff1155a8404d.gifA4597899-F021-4CDC-85A3-DDFE92A97D02.thumb.gif.6079e9f8d863f166609b5e0c3aa07d47.gif

Edited by bradymk
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO at 120 with a little increase of heights around Greenland/Arctic, nothing significant, but may just inch the pattern a little south 

 

 

UN120-21 (6).gif

And if that little LP to the West  can move through the channel .............

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene

A long long way away but the system on both the ukmo and GFS could be bothersome.

Potential there for high impactful winds and east coast storm surges and if pushed a tad further east to miss the worst of the winds the very low heights could be a snow machine for some.

 

Screenshot_20210116-160727_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210116-160742_Samsung Internet.jpg

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

GFS at 144 is quite different.

gfsnh-0-144 (17).png

Perhaps it's a matter of timing. I guess UKMO 168H will look more or less the same. The Greeniehigh is under attack by cold air from the east and the low pressure can't deliver good WA. Just my thoughts

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

This is the crucial stage.  We need the western Atlantic low to eject off a small shortwave and keep a southerly track (ideally becoming a channel low) instead of the main low heading east and phasing. 

We then want the  low that is left in the Atlantic to move north westwards and give waa up the west coast of Greenland. This is the only way to rescue a proper cold spell imo. 

spacer.png

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

GFSP 150, bigger picture quite a few features, like Pacific / Arctic starting to catch the eye... 

gfsnh-0-150 (1).png

gfsnh-1-150.png

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

image.thumb.png.f610ef12e08e361bf6bae1841c4a00ff.png

LP just running into Ireland further South on the 12z 

image.thumb.png.a92fc9879ee8eb5c6dd8fc3d298a8b1d.png

And pushes Snow in S Wales

Edited by MJB
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Early on and considering the high river levels in many parts of the country. We need to watch out for a waving front that will likely be stuck through central parts of the U.K. for a lengthy period starting from Monday.

Crude estimate from the GFS

Up to day 5

image.thumb.gif.88d74d5abaee1f0496915ee196cfd47f.gif
 

Take with a pinch of salt but the area of highest risk is broadly where the highest totals are (in fairness the 06z generally had 20-30mm).

Another thing to watch is the movement of cold air westwards from the Arctic that moves across the far north of the U.K. and into the Atlantic. This closes off the Greenland high of the GFS.

anim_kiy5.gif
 

The UKMO is slower with this movement and hence allows the Atlantic ridge to sustain itself. In fact that could lead to a far better outcome moving forward.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

A touch of Deja vu 

image.thumb.png.9c12e8f837a9e406f8198724e006fba5.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

Amazing last run changes for here. 

Especially gives UKMO and GFSparalel gives us some real hardcore snowstorms. 24 hrs ago rain here in the south seemed certain.

Fingers crossed!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

UKMO 12z looks fairly good to me at t144 with a stronger ridge to our NW.

03EB8763-75F7-4663-B5FA-BF9FB5C855A1.gif2A62D1A4-70C6-42F9-9C24-1A3781C528B9.thumb.gif.78cd4d52dea6f60ffcec78b3b4310a25.gif

I think the UKMO T144 is good.  It doesn’t cut the high off, which has seemed on previous runs to allow it to drift into a poor position, prefer to keep the omega block for the moment to see if we can get the cold air further south, edging so on this run.

Compare GFS at same time:

979AF06B-8609-4A5F-B944-1CBB69DFB04C.thumb.png.0b19e8db8ba18fe772fc4f34fb1b6341.png03DF6909-1D0B-4E41-965A-46FF96F27234.thumb.png.8c8366cfe3b5dc17e7260a62592f7a0d.png

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