Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[winterof79]

29 minutes ago, IDO said:

Just looking through Twitter to see what is going on. A lot of despondency there, it appears that the hype was exaggerated and feeds are full of puzzled punters. Canada has been above average all winter and the US not seeing much cold. Cohen doesn't have his usual cold focus, a reconstituted sPV showing up on GFS apparently, and maybe heading towards Canada by the end of January, nothing much to hype pre-then and that is what is showing in the models. Marco hinting at a slow recovery for the sPV after the next warming.

The new wave expectation of an SSWE seems to raise hopes and so far the coupling has been rather tame for many regions. People expecting the BFTE and weeks of locked in cold, this qtr has not delivered that at all. 

It is a learning curve for me as I suspect that we do not yet have enough data to be specific with these warming events. We will see how it fairs for the rest of the winter. Still no snow in my location and may just be too far west to see tomorrows!

That's a moan

[chris55]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I am personally frustrated for UK coldies who seem to get continual bad luck . And having lived in the UK for a long time I know just how frustrating it is .

Irritatingly tonight there is good agreement across the big 3 models ops at day 6 .  Timing wise some changes as in phasing with the upstream Atlantic troughing post day 6 could help going forward . The other issue is the reinforcement of the UK troughing from the ne with that parcel of deeper vorticity which stops any se momentum .

There are some smallish changes which could help . I await further runs with hope !

Well I am slightly annoyed my original post was deleted but we move on, I can only reply to the reply.

Your analysis suggests we are doomed and we have a zonal south westerly type situation with all hope of colder flow gone??  Surely these charts suggest something better for cold liking people?? I can only assume you are looking at upstream patterns and the like, because the raw UK charts at 144 look ok to me....

Ill even throw ECM day 7 in....

 

[chionomaniac]

Right with 18ZGFS running I am going to look at this one right to the end and keep my block on past T+144 limited to the 12Z. It’s very difficult not to look when the info is available but I reckon I can manage it for the 12z until I have seen them and commented on them 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

That's a moan

Trust me winterof 79 there as been despondency since the SSW occurred,but there is still plenty of positivity as well as uncertainty..especially from the likes of Marco P and Matt H. To my knowledge I can't see many just turning round and calling it a bust..Whether it be on here or twitter or any other social media,there will always be some writing it off and telling you the worse possible outcomes.This is were it pays to listen to the pros,both on here and those that I just mentioned above...they keep a level head and don't go off on one when the output throws a fit.

I'm not expecting much from todays final output,but tomorrow is a different day.

[chris55]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks . Unfortunately everything that can go wrong does in tonight’s outputs .

It’s very disappointing for coldies but we’ve been here before , many times .

 

Please tell me what goes wrong Nick, and why everything that can go wrong has gone wrong in tonights output?? I just don't get it!

I just don't!

Im going to post it again...what has gone wrong in the UKMO 144? I am coming from the perspective of someone who has been following the ups and downs of the recent modelling.

I know you are a knowledgeable poster and probably will shoot me down with some detailed information I am missing. But at face value I can't see it.

[Team Jo]

Alrighty as the pub run rolls, let’s not forget a few things:

• the models are not sentient beings and don’t care how you feel. Take the emotion out of it! Objective discussion is the name of the game in here. 

• the people posting on this thread however DO have feelings so can we try and keep it civil, because let’s face it, it’s hard enough out there at the moment, for all of us, so consider if your comment is going to improve or ruin someone’s week

• no Willy waving. Please. It’s not necessary. 
 

thanks!

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well I am slightly annoyed my original post was deleted but we move on, I can only reply to the reply.

Your analysis suggests we are doomed and we have a zonal south westerly type situation with all hope of colder flow gone??  Surely these charts suggest something better for cold liking people?? I can only assume you are looking at upstream patterns and the like, because the raw UK charts at 144 look ok to me....

Ill even throw ECM day 7 in....

 

No, many of us are just commenting on the model runs and trying to make sense of it. We do all understand that it can flip or the models could be wrong and that cold could show up at short notice. However, it is what it is and it would be nice if you did not shoot the messenger! 

We can also see that this winter is stop-start, a few days of cold and a few days of less cold weather, and unless we can see a reason why that will change we cannot just assume it will? We have some milder days coming, then a colder spell from mid-week and maybe a less-cold spell after that (d10+). That is what the models show and x-model at that.

[georgiedre]

The path for low pressure further south I think on this run

[chionomaniac]

Right this topic is derailed and I will be removing all the off topic posts

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Alrighty as the pub run rolls, let’s not forget a few things:

• the models are not sentient beings and don’t care how you feel. Take the emotion out of it! Objective discussion is the name of the game in here. 

• the people posting on this thread however DO have feelings so can we try and keep it civil, because let’s face it, it’s hard enough out there at the moment, for all of us, so consider if your comment is going to improve or ruin someone’s week

• no Willy waving. Please. It’s not necessary. 
 

thanks!

That was a fab post jo..I nearly choked on my allbran when you said...no willy waving in here. What you said about the models having know emotions and not caring how we feel is true...but those Humans who input the data into em must be divoid of emotions also....can't they see how its upsetting everyone.  

Edit..sorry chio...know more off topic from me.

Edited January 15, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Phil Blake]

Gfs 144

[Tim Bland]

Plenty of cold air around just need that Low to move in and deliver the goods next weekend

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Absolutely. You'd think we haven't just seen a decent snowfall in some parts from a very borderline context - and here in N Lincs it was close to an ice day in parts. Next to no melt anywhere, temps at most 1 degree. Some snow for other parts tomorrow. Good grief - already this is the coldest and most productive January in many years. And it is only Jan 15.....I want another BFTE as much as anyone, or a dramatic Feb 91 or Jan 87 style event. But these are rare, and we are doing ok so far. We could have had better....but we could also have had the raging +NAO predicted by the seasonals. A bit of perspective is needed in many quarters. 6 - 8 weeks still to go........

 With all due respect yes this January has been cold so far yes some people have had snowfall and had a lying snow yet not all part of the country have had snowfall during the cold spell I do hope this SSW is not going to be a repeat of winter 2019 lot of volatility in the models at this moment and I am sure once the SSW is over the model will get a handle on things yes and I do understand why some people are moaning and they do have the right to do that I suppose all the wintry cold charts are 10 days away never get past the 10 day mark.

[georgiedre]

Jesus how many lows can there be in the Atlantic lol

[Weathizard]

Amazingly how consistent the GFS is at day 8 when it’s spewing out turd. Always the way.

[MJB]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Mods I'd rather you move my posts to the winter chat thread than delete, especially as they are non-argumentative..

To be fair Kas , you should be putting them there - meanwhile 18z at 186h is different again to the 12z 

[Griff]

Para at least sending

Larger area over Greenland though... 

[Team Jo]

Guys, IMBY posts live in the regionals, please post your locational woe/joy in there.

[bluearmy]

i may have missed by 4hpa but I reckon we can get from New York to central Siberia on the same easterly isobar .....

[Phil Blake]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

i may have missed by 4hpa but I reckon we can get from New York to central Siberia on the same easterly isobar .....

I was just thinking something similar. Surely that's a response to the SSW. Just not in our favour. 

[Team Jo]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ok, so no regional or location analysis of the models allowed in here. 

Will be interesting to try and analyze the UK as a whole.

The rhetoric around ‘I’m so sad it won’t snow in xxxxx’ isn’t model or location analysis though is it?

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i may have missed by 4hpa but I reckon we can get from New York to central Siberia on the same easterly isobar .....

Wow

[Tim Bland]

GFSp has snow accross central areas next weekend.

*That’s all I need to say,  not Buxton, not Stevenage, I just say what the models are showing *

[IDO]

Not much to say really, the models are showing consistency pre-d10 which is usually the case when they have had that eureka moment:

12z 18z

Slightly less cold from mid-week (uppers) on this run but well within the envelope of possibilities. The Greenland wedge gets cut off earlier, a sign that the models have been over estimating heights, a usual issue?

I really think this is nailed on for the long wave pattern for our region until around d10, just the detail to be ironed out, and we take it from there.

[Vikos]

18z yesterday vs 18z today

 

12z yesterday vs 12z today

 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Vikos