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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it when i look at the London graph later then i am going to see an even bigger spike in temps and another trend in the wrong direction.

Thats more than likely Feb...and I wouldn't be surprised to see a vast turnaround in output tomorrow,before going downhill again on Sunday. If it wasn't for this second warming that occurred yesterday I would be getting a little concerned if nothing significant was showing next week. But in all honesty the NH still looks primed for Blocking,we have a stly tracking jet which means we perhaps remain on the colder side of it...Im not sure about significant cold,there's a long way to go...but I wouldn't be surprised to see this Winter drag on well into March..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How many chances have we already seen so far of things improving but not in the end ?

Fair enough in the north but down south it takes a lot more

It hasn't been great locally..

We've had the odd dusting and a good few frosts,certainly an improvement on the last few years BFTE aside.

We are looking at transient wnw /nw winds later next week but I'm beginning to think sustained cold is looking unlikely unfortunately.

Of course Exeter remain bullish, which is a big positive, but I would want to see something more appetising from the NWP because I'm having serious doubts as the duration of any colder set up.

 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
7 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

I was quite surprised to see a high pressure cell to our NE earlier this week. I don't recall it being forecast by any models 7-10 before it happened. SSW influence?

I would not consider this as a direct effect of the SSW. Just to early for...

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
29 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

Been nearly 2 weeks since the SSW and still nothing nailed up showing in the reliable timeframes but this wasn't a split ssw event and was more of a 2019 displaced event which led to record temps in Feb. I dont think a displaced vortex can allow severe cold into Europe. Normally its USA that benefits from cold in displaced events. 

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Well Im going to enjoy my 4 or 5 hours of heavy snow tomorrow ☃️before it turns to a slushfest!, the met office gives it , so it must be true, what could possibly go wrong!

image.thumb.png.1c6fb24db9fc89219f2296921b08008c.pngPity it couldnt give some to everyone who is still waiting!

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

@Vikos we could wake up tomorrow and the charts have shunted south a few hundred miles south...that isn’t a sudden flip, just a minor change in the overall pattern. 

A flip would be a strong Scandi high in the charts of let's say Monday, Tuesday for day 7-9 (no I don't say d10 ). Out of nowhere as a effect of the SSW. You never know.

tourbillonetbulle.jpg.3242449.jpg  + 99416c2a7ea7ccdb0ce1162fb87339bd.gif

 

The whole weather system is a chaotic system. NOBODY can ever predict its excact outcome!

People seem to forget this as they think that Models calculated by computers with randomized inputs can. Even with a bunch of Master degrees in statistics no one can. It is impossible!

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

All thoughts were for the cold to come towards the end of the month. Maybe this is just the way we are going to get there. Anything past 3/4 days is fantasy island for me. Models may look  off-it for coldies but I'm positive going forward thru this weekend the charts will change for the better. I'm thinking the models are getting confused at present and the default is for the Atlantic to come thru. My thoughts are for a north easterly/easterly to set up in the last week of Jan and continue thru the first part of February. Bringing the coldest uppers of the winter Declining thru the month as the ssw effects on the pattern dies down. Maybe the second baby ssw warming may prolonge it further thru February but also could stop it. Keep the faith. Nothing next week is set in stone. But I do expect the models to change to ssw cold very soon. Roll on the 18z

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
5 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Been nearly 2 weeks since the SSW and still nothing nailed up showing in the reliable timeframes but this wasn't a split ssw event and was more of a 2019 displaced event which led to record temps in Feb. I dont think a displaced vortex can allow severe cold into Europe. Normally its USA that benefits from cold in displaced events. 

Just not true. It is the position of the displacement, and where you are located at. See the strat thread...

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
1 minute ago, Vikos said:

A flip would be a strong Scandi high in the charts of let's say Monday, Tuesday for day 7-9 (no I don't say d10 ). Out of nowhere as a effect of the SSW. You never know.

tourbillonetbulle.jpg.3242449.jpg  + 99416c2a7ea7ccdb0ce1162fb87339bd.gif

 

The whole weather system is a chaotic system. NOBODY can ever predict it's excact outcome!

People seem to forget this as they think that Models calculated by computers with randomized inputs can. Even with a bunch of Master degrees in statistics no one ca. It is impossible!

I'm thinking a large flip too. 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
8 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

SSW of 2010 was in February. It meant the end of winter.

I did not say that SSW was the punch for a modelflip in 2010.

But it can be the the impulse for a model flip.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
8 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

All thoughts were for the cold to come towards the end of the month. Maybe this is just the way we are going to get there. Anything past 3/4 days is fantasy island for me. Models may look  off-it for coldies but I'm positive going forward thru this weekend the charts will change for the better. I'm thinking the models are getting confused at present and the default is for the Atlantic to come thru. My thoughts are for a north easterly/easterly to set up in the last week of Jan and continue thru the first part of February. Bringing the coldest uppers of the winter Declining thru the month as the ssw effects on the pattern dies down. Maybe the second baby ssw warming may prolonge it further thru February but also could stop it. Keep the faith. Nothing next week is set in stone. But I do expect the models to change to ssw cold very soon. Roll on the 18z

Great post mate..your saying nothing is certain,but then finish by saying things should become much colder soon..sounds like you could be sitting on the fence a little there kid...love it  

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
47 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

It's there for you to see in the model output. It maybe not the final outcome, but the Tropospheric model outputs we are seeing lately are clearly a response to the SSW

Edited by Bricriu
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

It's there for you to see in the model output. It maybe not be the final outcome, but the Tropospheric model outputs we are seeing lately are clearly a response to the SSW

Sorry, there are no outcomes yet wich I would consider as an effect of the SSW. So please show me wich ones you actually mean. Patterns are way to unsteady for any solid predictions. I am getting tired of repeating this.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
6 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

It's there for you to see in the model output. It maybe not the final outcome, but the Tropospheric model outputs we are seeing lately are clearly a response to the SSW

I agree. Because the SSW onset was 5th of January. According to literature it takes 10-14 days. And we have downwelling.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

My understanding it happened near the end of that January 2010 and the cold lasted in the UK more or less until the middle of March 

Feb 8th i think.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

My understanding it happened near the end of that January 2010 and the cold lasted in the UK more or less until the middle of March 

At the end of the month a west negative NAO regime ended the winter (at least over here)

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Having just looked through the output something like the ECM day 10 chart is being signaled strongly across the output in my opinion. GFS, GFSP, ECM, GEM and GFS control and over half the GEFS have heights over Iberia at day 10. If all these different sources were screaming 'Scandi High' we would not just ignore it, so little reason to ignore this.

Others in here seem confident that the SSW will lead to a big change in the charts but there isn't really anything to suggest that at the moment. At times the ensemble suites have gone colder but in reality the opp runs pretty much relentlessly say no. Its the winter of 'close but no cigar'. Still scope for a watered down northerly but personally I think the story of the next 10 days will be rainfall for many of us. Lots and lots of rain! 

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

It’s just nonsense to say that there are no signs of the ssw in the trop modelling .... look how slow the Atlantic jet is at its normal northern arm latitude ...look at the anomalous cold across the USA and Siberia/n scandi  

 

image.thumb.png.7c4b58eb38282827cce8143f9c318a3f.png
 

50 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And boy do we need that high pressure to stay south !

The block to the NW is too far west now for my liking 

We are in real danger of a euro high longer term.

The spread to the south is presumably where the trough is more suppressed 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It hasn't been great locally..

We've had the odd dusting and a good few frosts,certainly an improvement on the last few years BFTE aside.

We are looking at transient wnw /nw winds later next week but I'm beginning to think sustained cold is looking unlikely unfortunately.

Of course Exeter remain bullish, which is a big positive, but I would want to see something more appetising from the NWP because I'm having serious doubts as the duration of any colder set up.

 

Good points. The other side of the coin is its been a cold January so far. Granted the snowfall has been localised towards the north and specific areas. That's the nature of the weather in the UK esp with lowish 850s and no serious blocking. Its a lottery ie temps, dew points and lapse rates. Serious cold and widespread snowfall isn't forecast but the chances are still evident going forward

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Sorry, there are no outcomes yet wich I would consider as an effect of the SSW. So please show me wich ones you actually mean. Patterns are way to unsteady for any solid predictions. I am getting tired of repeating this.

This is not a standard NH view in mid jan. this is more what you will see in spring. We are just unlucky IF this is how it plays out..

AA0590F3-5EA9-4C6C-81BC-92E5EDDF4F71.png

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s just nonsense to say that there are no signs of the ssw in the trop modelling .... look how slow the Atlantic jet is at its normal northern arm latitude ...look at the anomalous cold across the USA and Siberia/n scandi  

 

image.thumb.png.7c4b58eb38282827cce8143f9c318a3f.png
 

The spread to the south is presumably where the trough is more suppressed 

Yes. The temperature response of a SSW as what we see at the NH.

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