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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
1 minute ago, Bricriu said:

So you are saying the models have not factored  in the full effects of downwelling? So what are we seeing in the Northern Hemisphere profile. It looks to me that the effects of SSW are being shown in the output, but unfortunately we are not benefiting from it?

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

A very good point made from Vikos re the SSW.The effects are only just being felt and by 21st just using ECM as an example that is not a bad chart(UKMO AND GFS not too dissimilar).

The frustration is understandable as we are so close yet so far but if the Pacific ridge and Arctic ridge can start becoming more prominent then we can push this ruddy trough further south.Signs are this COULD happen but we will just have to wait and see.

Fascinating model watching and I think I have learnt a lot more on trying to read charts from the really good knowledgeable posters on here so thanks to all of you.

5FABCAF4-DF2A-4231-9080-0F73584CE5F6.webp

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

How about the easterly from the Urals to Newfoundland at day 9/10 ?? 
 

let me know how often you see that in the nwp .........

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not much good news from the eps but the spread is to the south at day 10 
 

image.thumb.png.753d5093cc24743438389f137ff4c16e.png

SURPRISE.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not much good news from the eps but the spread is to the south at day 10 
 

image.thumb.png.753d5093cc24743438389f137ff4c16e.png

And boy do we need that high pressure to stay south !

The block to the NW is too far west now for my liking 

We are in real danger of a euro high longer term.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

The models know there has been a SSW, it happens every couple of years and they are programmed to take in /  forecast the effect. It may have forecasted it inaccurately but they aren’t going to suddenly flip, it’s been 2 weeks ??‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

The effects can take a month to filter down and last for 3 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How about the easterly from the Urals to Newfoundland at day 9/10 ?? 
 

let me know how often you see that in the nwp .........

Did it happen already? Or is it about to come at day 9/10?

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The models know there has been a SSW, it happens every couple of years and they are programmed to take in /  forecast the effect. It may have forecasted it inaccurately but they aren’t going to suddenly flip, it’s been 2 weeks ??‍♂️

Not quite right, they did flip in short term in 2010 if I remember it the right way...

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

image.thumb.png.b6f900ac165a0b882fa3f159ace72244.png

I'd be cautious of assuming that the smaller lows will merge into a huge well-rounded low between the Azores and Newfoundland next weekend... such things have a habit of not, ahem, coming together.

If the lows stay apart, there should be less pumping up of a high toward western Europe. We've seen some model runs advertising that outcome... but there's no denying that an awful lot are keen on an unusually big advance of tropical maritime air across western Europe. Something I can't recall actually happening before, closest in my lifetime perhaps being the end of the Feb-Mar cold spell in 2018.

There's been more than a few hints that such an outcome wouldn't be the final word on the matter, with further HLB opportunities. I'm not sure how to feel about that to be honest - on the one hand, more cold potential but on the other, so many more ifs and maybes to come...!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Just now, Tim Bland said:

The models know there has been a SSW, it happens every couple of years and they are programmed to take in /  forecast the effect. It may have forecasted it inaccurately but they aren’t going to suddenly flip, it’s been 2 weeks ??‍♂️

Yes an No Tim...your correct regarding SSW events,they come along very often,and the models should be able to deal with them. But every SSW is a different beast which can make it increasingly difficult for them to work out which way we may be going..Also keep in mind we have just had a secondary warming which will take some time for the models to work that one out..The 1st warming may well not end up favouring us...but there's a chance the 2nd one may benefit us more...even though it was a lamer affair.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not much point adding the 4 or 5 days point though,its already been stated on here a thousand times by various posters..its more about keeping your emotions in check when viewing the output. 

Regarding John,he is basically saying what many are saying...the models are really struggling to nail anything down..but a mobile situation looks very unlikely. The point of this story being the models are providing more questions than answers right now. He doesn't rule out deep cold in February also. I think some may have been expecting a QTR following this SSW event..1stly...its only been around 10 days since the displacement,so in that respect we could be looking for the models to start showing the goods next week...on the other hand if its a much slower downwelling,we could be looking at 3-4 weeks.

The SSW that occurred in January 2013 was bringing us bouts of winter right through March,so we can't rule this out also. Also worth noting was the event was not a total split...more off a displacement,but worth baring in mind was the fact the Vortex was already weak and meandering,this warming just weakened it further. It may not recover for quite sometime,thats if it does at all.. So we will remain in the game throughout these coming several weeks. Im not so sure about the nina affect moving forward....for me I've always been sceptical of how this influences the UK,especially as we are so far downstream of the event..El nino  for instance as been linked to backloaded Winters in the UK..there are numerous examples...but also a fair few studies that show they have little impact on our Weather. Im not sure if La Nina is gonna bring us a strong jet come next month,or we are going to have a battle between the affects of the Strat and Nina battling for supremacy...interesting times from now through till Mid March is my opinion  

Edit...and in the other hand we may already be seeing some kind of reversal...to the North of us and spanning a hell of a long distance,as blue just pointed out.

Good points. The actuall Heighths and solutions are fine. The outlook is good barring imby thoughts. The jet is meandering and generally heading south. For sure its been a decent winter for us "upp north" but the misconception that you need great heights to give snowfall was proven wrong yesterday. Things look good so in effect just let the atmosphere and weather do its dance. 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Mean charts after day 4/5 are rather useless as they get too diffuse .. but... if it is a tradition, why not...

Edited by Vikos
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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC240H average. This is quite good. We see an easterly. To much too the north. But perhaps... this can improve in the days to come.

6001f52cadb71.png

It will never improve.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Google it

Amusement park in France - never heard of it before

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It will never improve.

The trend at day 10 is not a good one over the last 24 hours...

We are seeing the block to far west and signs of pressure rise across Europe.

That trend can take a run and jump, sharpish.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

How about the easterly from the Urals to Newfoundland at day 9/10 ?? 
 

let me know how often you see that in the nwp .........

I take it when i look at the London graph later then i am going to see an even bigger spike in temps and another trend in the wrong direction.

EDIT : QUOTED WRONG POST, WANTED TO QUOTE THE PREVIOUS POST FROM bluearmy.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Wasn't the story when the SSW happened that a quick tropical response would take us to the 20th as landing date, but that it's usually a slower process, like 3-6 weeks?

If we say: "Don't look beyond +144h", that means even the quickest  QTR would only just be visible in the reliable timeframe today, let alone the slower response.
I'm not saying that we will see Narnia on the charts tomorrow, but maybe we should wait just a little longer with conclusions about the SSW.

There was no QTR in the charts.  Just people with their hope.

Effects of the SSW are typical after ten days. It can last (with breaks) up to two months.

There are different types of effects. My guess we have a dripping effect beloning with a European Blocking type.

wcd-1-373-2020-avatar-web.png
WCD.COPERNICUS.ORG

<p><strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can significantly impact tropospheric weather for a period of several weeks, in...

 

sudden-stratospheric-warming-atmosphere-
EOS.ORG

High above Earth’s surface, air temperatures occasionally increase suddenly, producing widespread effects on weather, air chemistry, and telecommunications.

 

wcd-1-373-2020-f03-web.png

Edited by sebastiaan1973
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
18 minutes ago, Vikos said:

You show me the effects, please! Show some major (!) outcomes anywhere on the globe today wich are due the effects of that SSW with its long lasting reversal of 10hPa winds. Than we can talk.

I was quite surprised to see a high pressure cell to our NE earlier this week. I don't recall it being forecast by any models 7-10 before it happened. SSW influence?

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Just now, northwestsnow said:

The trend at day 10 is not a good one over the last 24 hours...

We are seeing the block to far west and signs of pressure rise across Europe.

That trend can take a run and jump, sharpish.

How many chances have we already seen so far of things improving but not in the end ?

Fair enough in the north but down south it takes a lot more

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes an No Tim...your correct regarding SSW events,they come along very often,and the models should be able to deal with them. But every SSW is a different beast which can make it increasingly difficult for them to work out which way we may be going..Also keep in mind we have just had a secondary warming which will take some time for the models to work that one out..The 1st warming may well not end up favouring us...but there's a chance the 2nd one may benefit us more...even though it was a lamer affair.

 

 

If the current pattern had been 500 miles further south and that easterly was over us, then we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation and would just be rubbing our hands together looking at the snow charts.  It could just be that it hasn’t worked in our favour this time ??‍♂️ @Vikos we could wake up tomorrow and the charts have shunted south a few hundred miles south...that isn’t a sudden flip, just a minor change in the overall pattern. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
32 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Don't know about everybody else but Didi land to me translates to tiny land 

Won’t need much snowfall there to make everyone happy! Assuming the snowflakes aren’t Didi as well.... 

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