Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Well that's a interesting update 

Hello.. in what way please? I really struggle with those charts and even if could understand did not see previous version.

 

thanks

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Well that's a interesting update 

Any explanation, not a west based -nao  

So much social chatter this evening about the ecmwf monthly... 

[cold snap]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. in what way please? I really struggle with those charts and even if could understand did not see previous version.

 

thanks

Greenland blocking looking more structured

[MOF]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

Greenland blocking looking more structured

And the Pacific/ Arctic highs merging?

[cold snap]

1 minute ago, MOF said:

And the Pacific/ Arctic highs merging?

Hard to tell.

Blocking not gone . That's the bread of butter of it. 

[chionomaniac]

Early days but this latest Gfs run is ever so slightly more amplified than previous and weaker Iceland low. Small earlier differences can be magnified later

[chionomaniac]

And better orientation of Atlantic block at T+126. All good. The rest of the run is just for fun now

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Early days but this latest Gfs run is ever so slightly more amplified than previous and weaker Iceland low. Small earlier differences can be magnified later

Looks pretty similar out to 144 to my eyes..

[Daniel*]

It’s unfortunate how close the U.K. and Ireland (so you don’t attack me  ) came to a very cold easterly if other things went favourably today could have seen start of a proper cold spell.

 

I’m not noticing much a diffrence at T132 makes a change to see some consistency.

 

[chris55]

12z ensembles, for comparison with the 18z when they come out. 12Z were trending colder than recent suites.

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Looks pretty similar out to 144 to my eyes..

Yep looks like those small gains have been neutralised lol

[Mike Poole]

Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

We are going to have to feel our way with this one as the models are doing.  

[TallPaul]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

When I was wee, like 9, I'd trace maps of GB umpteen times (on my mother's greaseproof paper) and then draw fantastical synoptic weather-patterns on them; and there were almost invariably both a Scandi-Iceland HP and a European low in evidence!

My parents thought I was mad... But, what If I were merely anticipating this thread -- albeit 55-years ago? Once a nerd, always a nerd!

Omg GC, i was the same!...but shamefully i was in my late teens (late 80's) and drawing 'Ian Mcaskill style weather maps' with the 'stick-on' heavy snow symbols...on my employer's toilet cubicle wall... ☺

 

[Day_9]

Classic flip coming up with some insane runs next week. And also some very mild wet solutions or just cold and wet.  The additional vortex split will not be helpful to much clarity on a run by run basis.  Time to reduce frequency of checking, its wasted time for a few days yet

[Ice Day]

Now this is starting to look interesting at days 7/8.  Heights have moved east, this *maybe* good

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, TallPaul said:

Omg GC, i was the same!...but shamefully i was in my late teens (late 80's) and drawing 'Ian Mcaskill style weather maps' with the 'stick-on' heavy snow symbols...on my employer's toilet cubicle wall... ☺

 

That's amazing TP, I've always thought I was the only one... But, based on all the reactions my post is getting, there are many more of us 'afflicted ones', out there?!

[Matt H]

A solid effort from the pub run at bringing in a decent northerly later next week. Hopefully we can build on this further tomorrow.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[chionomaniac]

9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yep looks like those small gains have been neutralised lol

Neutralisation reversed lol

[TallPaul]

Just now, General Cluster said:

That's amazing TP, I've always thought I was the only one... But, based on all the reactions my post is getting, there are many more of us 'afflicted ones', out there?!

The can of worms have well and truly been opened...and the truth is coming out from far a field...

[Daniel*]

That‘s better a sharper and cleaner northerly flow, northerlies don’t excite me but if we can get some good cold established then a little channel runner and it would be a snow maker.

 

 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run delivering a stonker again, T198:

And colder air to come in the northerly, it’s good that the models are strongly saying these evolutions are on the table...

Edited January 14, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Neutralisation reversed lol

You should have held your nerve for two more minutes 

Still looking good out to 204

The Para at 162 is an improvement also

Will any of these 'gains' survive the massacre of the overnight runs?????

[Jason T]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

 

 

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

We are going to have to feel our way with this one as the models are doing.  

Perfect Response Mike, With THE SSW event and it's effects still in evolution (if that's the right terminology) changes have already happened at the point of the daily run releases...what we see with with our eyes and read...much more is changing above our heads and at a greater rate...I think even T120 is to far to call..but that's my opinion. Only an opinion folks.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

When I was wee, like 9, I'd trace maps of GB umpteen times (on my mother's greaseproof paper) and then draw fantastical synoptic weather-patterns on them; and there were almost invariably both a Scandi-Iceland HP and a European low in evidence!

My parents thought I was mad... But, what If I were merely anticipating this thread -- albeit 55-years ago? Once a nerd, always a nerd!

Ha love this post, I was drawing such maps well into my teens! Kept me out of trouble, and yes it was always a winter chart featuring snow and freezing cold weather. I remember drawing maps when I was about 6 with sun symbols.. 

Back to the models, more variance today, as said the models are in a frenzy at present, so much going on, very difficult to pinpoint how things may pan out.

The trend in the nearer term is for low heights to transfer down from Iceland into the N Sea and for a colder feed from  between north and west, this has been the trend for many days but the difference now is suggestion of less depth of cold due to lack of sufficient mid atlantic ridge heading towards Greenland. Alas outlook looks like a continuation of a negative NAO with low heights to our SW on an increasingly southerly tracking jet, UK locked on the polar side. Can see why some are saying battleground situation with tropical maritime air trying to oust aside the polar air, but the latter looks like it will continue to gain the upper hand thanks to strong heights over the Pole and to our NW.

For those wanting something substantively colder, hopes will need to be pinned on the trough moving sufficiently east to be sucked into the cold trough to our NE, this then plunging into Europe this would allow for a significantly colder NE/N flow and possible easterly onslaught as low pressure advances in from the south.

We are at mid-point in the winter (Dec - Feb), though I always add 3 weeks on (21 March) in terms of when possible very cold wintry weather can still occur, and so far it has been a superb winter for model watching, full of interest.. and the most interesting since 12/13... so far. Thank goodness in these tortuous days of having isolate, we are not looking at watching paint dry models..

[MJB]

Well into FI but much better for the UK