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Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

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Hello Feb 1st 2009!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
8 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Can’t move Shetland cause of Covid look which is such a shame but hopefully something happend but just can’t see it through  reading posts about models

I think the outlook going into late January-Feb is OK for most of the UK. My Shetland comment was tongue in cheek. Keep the faith the jet hopefully will go well south

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
35 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not sure about the "up North" comment. We take it on the chin, rain snow, floods ete. We don't make headlines ie se England and we don't complain about crap summers. Think on. Anyway the model output and nhp don't really support a true Gh ete. The SSW is just  coming into the mix model wise and I'd suspect a lot of change on all models over the next 7-10 days. Whatever that delivers be it a north south divide cold  and snow ete its in the hands of the gods. Enjoy whatever the weather

Because it isn’t as special (common) up there? And not seen by much apart from livestock? Lol kidding, this country is full of moaners you don’t need to look far ie. this forum.
 

@mulzy don’t totally understand your assessment there is ridging indicated into Iberia but not really extending northwards much of Europe including med has low heights. It’s painting extended extremely unsettled and zonal conditions, but I don’t think it would take something huge for that to look quite different.

D54253BA-96D9-4818-9DFB-5CB9472DC87E.thumb.png.735a8536be590a425179d7305d0f4338.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I thought the SSW was nearly 2 weeks ago now? Should the models not have a handle on that now?

The PV only split today though 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Because it isn’t as special (common) up there? And not seen by much apart from livestock? Lol kidding, this country is full of moaners you don’t need to look far ie. this forum.
 

@mulzy don’t totally understand your assessment there is ridging indicated into Iberia but not really extending northwards much of Europe including med has low heights. It’s painting extended extremely unsettled and zonal conditions, but I don’t think it would take something huge for that to look quite different.

D54253BA-96D9-4818-9DFB-5CB9472DC87E.thumb.png.735a8536be590a425179d7305d0f4338.png

 

Livestockthink you guys couldn't cope with a proper winter mate. You'd need government help with four inch of snow and the rain and floods need army assistance. Hope the SSW brings you some good blocking and snow you deserve it. Spare us the headlines and platitudes tho when you get 4 inch of snow

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Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yep, I think too many may be guilty of looking too far ahead, rather than concentrating on the short term building blocks that we see currently modelled. I mean how many people would be fretting if they couldn’t see what was modelled past day 6?

Exactly. T144 is the maximum. And even that is a little optimistic. That's why I am more confident tonight in that the big 3 seems to be closer. Still lots to go, but a definite up-tick.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Look at all that Arctic blocking, imagine if we if could get this to creep into Scandinavia.

Small margins between cold and deep cold

20210114204203-dede093c57682ce25906e8cf7d3800698c2d9a98.png

Looks like the pattern we’ve had most of winter does it not? Higher than average pressure over Greenland/Arctic with lows more southerly tracking than usual but moving slowly and thus pumping up air from the south into Scandinavia?

It’s funny really, we’ve had a very rainy winter down here and yet the Atlantic hasn’t really been at its raging zonal worst.

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Looks like the pattern we’ve had most of winter does it not? Higher than average pressure over Greenland/Arctic with lows more southerly tracking than usual but moving slowly and thus pumping up air from the south into Scandinavia?

It’s funny really, we’ve had a very rainy winter down here and yet the Atlantic hasn’t really been at its raging zonal worst.

Yes we need an adjustment south and east. As least the Russian high is no longer blocking the cold from Siberia coming into Scandinavia anymore

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12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Livestockthink you guys couldn't cope with a proper winter mate. You'd need government help with four inch of snow and the rain and floods need army assistance. Hope the SSW brings you some good blocking and snow you deserve it. Spare us the headlines and platitudes tho when you get 4 inch of snow

North or South where is the line, weather forecasts always use it as a referance, but never show you where it is?...I was told its how you pronounce bath.....baath (North)or barrth!... or if you kept your ketchup in the fridge(South) or the cupboard!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
25 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46. Northern blocking. UK/ Netherlands on the edge.

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Colder than average in the north and around average in the south with high pressure to the north and low pressure over the U.K. Looks to be a long the lines of the Met Office outlook for generally cold conditions but areas of low pressure bringing precipitation and milder air into the south at times. Potential for snow near the boundary of cold and milder air. The increasing cold anomaly over Scandinavia suggests some cold air spreading westward.

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
33 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not sure what your point is tbh. It's mid January and your ona bout "us southerners" graphics show its milder and hotter in summer. In respect to the model output and nhp atm there's nothing in the reliable to say or show the south wont get any wintry weather between now and the end of March. See how it pans out or maybe move to the shetlands? Enjoy the SSW and its meanderings. You can't change it

I like this post (despite being a resident next to Gatwick - I don’t even get my planes any more! ??‍♂️).

Here’s a thing though. A good run for the ‘south’ usually means an absolute belter for the ‘north’, given what that set up would entail. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Seems like that approaching low is doing us a favour by now being shown to get a move on and clear east to allow a Northerly to swing down. Very good if you ask me, as this enables some cold to establish itself before the next onslaught. That could easily end up as a snowmaker. Small steps in the right direction. 

This is like watching end to end counter attacking football lately. Very nerve racking!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
50 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Skandi, high?

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Can you please clarify what a Skandi high is? Maybe you mean Scandi? Those clusters at T240 and T360 aren’t interested a deep trough signalled near to us. Not a fan of them west based -NAO. Next! 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
58 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Skandi, high?

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The little tell tale on the these charts is the bottom right hand corner. If it's free of anomaly, or into the positive anomalies, then that's a hint of a Euro ridge. You need blues on the far bottom right edge. Cluster 1 at T240 is ok, cluster 2 at T360 is fine, but the other clusters are either playing with mild or cold for NAO (Northern Areas Only)

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