Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Another consideration is that if the next few runs show Trough East of UK then as per Alex deakin & met office thoughts we are in a better position for last 7 days of January to get a north/north easterly wind direction.Along with a Southerly jet(preferably another 100 miles further south) then chances of more widespread wintry hazards MAY arise.
 

Certainly a more positive  feel to the models and let’s hope we and the models can build some consistency and momentum going forward.As was shown today you don’t need massive negative uppers to get 6 inches of snow as Yorkshire,other parts of the North and Scotland proved today.Give me -6 uppers and DPs of 0/-1 and I would take my chances in the potential set up showing.

Let’s hope so, as we’ve been in a good position all month!

Steps in the right direction this evening. Be good to see the ECM ensembles later.

[IDO]

The ecm at d9 represents one of the main clusters on the gefs, about 33% show this solution. The bad news is those that are showing that were poor runs right through to d16; the good news, the members going similar to the 12z gfs op (or better) at d8 moved to the cold grouping:

London>

Def want the gfs solution, but too early to call either route a trend, the ops may simply be spinning through the clusters until the music stops? 

 

[Hotspur62]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

4 bloomin days that barrell trough has to our east... Is there anything realistic that could happen to get it to bugger off a little south east or stretch it's leg in situ.

But is that realistic in itself ?For 4 days it just doesn’t move.I don’t know the answer as not knowledgeable enough but would be genuinely interested if someone could advise me if that trough literally remaining stagnant for that length of time is plausible.

[Battleground Snow]

Positive ECM tonight. Look for the entire arctic area to be modelled with stronger heights nearer the time. Vortex on its knees. Can't see a quick recovery from here.

Going to be marginal snow events before day 9 at best.

Extended EPS should make interesting viewing... I'm sure someone will give us a snippet of them

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Jason H]

It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.

[MJB]

ECM is still catching up but 144 is really our limit , the next 10 -14 days will snow for areas in the UK that's for sure .

[Chesil View]

More than enough to play with on tonight's runs. Remember the op are only one of a range of possibilities within an envelope of solutions Going forward I would expect to see that envelope include options with the whole pattern pushed further south as the Arctic high and the Siberian vortex come into play. 

 

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Positive ECM tonight. Look for the entire arctic area to be modelled with stronger heights nearer the time. Vortex on its knees. Can't see a quick recovery from here.

Going to be marginal snow events before day 9 at best.

Extended EPS should make interesting viewing... I'm sure someone will give us a snippet of them

 

I'm struggling to see the positives. It lookS like we miss out yet again.  It could improve down the line, but it feels like we are being led up the garden path yet again.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Bricriu

[Hotspur62]

What years on this forum from mainly viewing as opposed to trying to contribute is don’t look too far ahead and so this evening upto 144 the UK is in a better position to have below average temperatures.Now the devil is in the detail as always but it is just a hunch ,but the Arctic High could become more prominent and if it does then that may help us going forward.Just a hint that it could link up with GH and if this becomes a trend it may help us in the latter third of January.

[sheikhy]

Where is the snow line on ukmo 48 hour fax chart?looks slightly different to ecm?!

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Bricriu said:

I'm struggling to see the positives. It look like we miss out yet again.  It could improve down the line, but it feels like we are being led up the garden path yet again.

Perhaps, it's not great in the near term and nothing is ever certain, but the predicted Arctic rises on the GEFS at range is a strong signal, hoping EPS show this too.

Like catcacol says maybe come back in a few days and it may become clearer, especially if we lose MJO phase 3 interference

 

[Frostbite1980]

16 minutes ago, Jason H said:

It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.

I never put my head on the chopping board but remember this date and what the charts are showing! I am so confident that ne USA will be in a bitterly cold pattern in the next 10 days and most the UK will be bathed in average temperarures due to a west based negative NAO at best i will run down my garding chanting to pepper pig naked. We need to face facts that the possible cold period from the 20th has now been pushed back significantly if at all!

Also as stated by many other members the heights over iberia are preventing cold uppers to flood south to effect most the UK unless you live up a hill firther north 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[Guest]

That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

 Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

[Sweatyman]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Where is the snow line on ukmo 48 hour fax chart?looks slightly different to ecm?!

Forget it mate. It aint worth it honestly!

[Jason H]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I never put my head on the chopping board but remember this date and what the charts are showing! I am so confident that ne USA will be in a bitterly cold pattern in the next 10 days and most the UK will be bathed in average temperarures due to a west based negative NAO at best i will run down my garding chanting to pepper pig naked. We need to face facts that the possible cold period from the 20th has now been pushed back significantly if at all!

Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though.... However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Jason H said:

Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though.... However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.

Totally agree mate i am just going on trends and those trends arnt great if you want sustained cold in the UK 

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

 Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

Is it though?  Move that high south and everything would be coming from the east.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Is it though?  Move that high south and everything would be coming from the east.

True lots to be  resolved, nobody can call anything yet including the met going by their one size fits all update!

Edited January 14, 2021 by Guest

[snowangel32]

11 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

 Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

Good job its way into Fantasy island territory and will look completely diffrent on the next run i would put FI around 72 hours at present with the current SSW and further warmings causing caos with the models.

[Cold Winter Night]

Comparing today's EC 12Z with yesterday's 12Z, it's fairly similar up to today's 120h, but from that point on seemingly small differences lead to considerable differences at 240h. So 144h is FI already.
The Arctic and Russia, the Atlantic and North America, all very different. No changes in the big picture though.

I doubt if the ensembles will be much of a help at the later timeframes in this situation. They will probably pick up the correct solution even later than the high res operational.

For example, I was just looking at the De Bilt plume that came out January 9. I saved it for future reference, because it was the coldest yet. See below.
Just five days later the whole thing is different, compare the two for next Wednesday, the 20th.
On Saturday, almost all members stayed below 5C, this morning's ensemble is almost entirely above 5C.
Not even one member was as warm as what is now the mean for that day.

Ensembles flip. They really do.
So do not despair coldies, that deep cold that is not in any ensemble, might become reality once day 14 arrives.
Or not!

[Methuselah]

After wheeching through the 12Z GEFS ens, a sequence (at least for about 9 days) is becoming clear: cold crap, mild crap, cold crap, mild crap...cold? Nailed!

    

And, to make matters worse, it's too cold for my other hobby:     

Edited January 14, 2021 by General Cluster

[chris55]

Enjoying the ECM tonight, no crazy cold charts, but stepping towards something much colder.

Early on, phasing better

 

Mid term, Atlantic quiet and the Scandi trough would no doubt be looser come the time 

 

Fantasy Island (FI) just look at the pattern! (nothing to cold for the UK but at day 10 and with corrections, we could be looking at some serious battleground snowfalls)

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by chris55

[joggs]

15 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

That Greenie is no match for the Atlantic steam train unfortunately!

 Chocolate fireguard springs to mind!

I know that wouldn't bring nationwide snow but that's not a bad chart imo, especially if the low out west can disrupt se. Its probably wont be right anyway.  Yes, not been good for the south........yet but it's better than zonal mild mush.

[Stuie]

41 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

And all of those warning of a west based negative NAO got shot down! Sure there will be many no its down to....or its due to.... but the risk was there and now its looking like the most likely scenario 

Hmm, been watching this Greeny high and to me if anything it has moved more East (favourable if you want cold). This still has to develop so I wouldn`t be chucking my eggs into it`s a nailed on West based -NAO basket quite yet.

Edited January 14, 2021 by Stuie W

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

After wheeching through the 12Z GEFS ens, a sequence (at least for about 9 days) is becoming clear: cold crap, mild crap, cold crap, mild crap...cold? Nailed!

    

And, to matters worse, it's too cold for my other hobby:     

Your not still looking for that 5p you dropped last year! you can take the Man out of Scotland' but you can never take the Scotland out of the Man!