Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[mountain shadow]

Just now, chris55 said:

EC 168. 

Pattern being forced south, nothing extreme, but nice to see.

850s horrendous. 

Because of the circular nature of the North Sea low we cannot tap into the really cold air and it's pumping warm air into central Europe and mixing everything out.

[That ECM]

T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

[Hotspur62]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

144... 

Differences rather than similarities? 

Bearing in mind where we were 24 hours ago I would take either of them as that would put us in a better position than we were yesterday.No point looking any further but at least trends of gfs ecm UKMO and Gem all fairly similar.Just wish the trough would just push Se A bit quicker but models having digested first warming now working out implications of second warming?

 

 

 

[chris55]

EC 192

Atlantic looks held up.......

[Johnp]

I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

EC 192

Atlantic looks held up.......

Could be a good run, similar to GFS 12z

[Cloud 10]

Arctic high trying to sneak into Greenland at 192hrs.?

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

To answer my own question - I think a low pressure runs through along the south between the two frames in question. 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I'm struggling to see why the 850s warm up between 168 and 192 even though the flow continues from the north west?

The low is round, if it was to lose intensity and disrupt it would improve the 850’s

Edited January 14, 2021 by That ECM

[Singularity]

Relieved to see ECM budge having been so stubborn for several runs.

Sizeable jump close to the UKMO-GFS group. It’s important because it shows that adjustments toward a better placed trough by the UK and slower trough progression out west of us both have some merit.

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

850s horrendous. 

Because of the circular nature of the North Sea low we cannot tap into the really cold air and it's pumping warm air into central Europe and mixing everything out.

850s are between -1 and -6C , roughly,  (horrendous, fantastic that's subjective.) Im just commenting on the run.

[Hotspur62]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

EC 192

Atlantic looks held up.......

Nearly a link up of Arctic High and Greenland High/Ridge there!That may help but I am getting way ahead of myself as shouldn’t look past 120-144 in reality!!

[sebastiaan1973]

216h, not looking good. Erosion of the Greenland high, pressure remains low between Norway and Iceland and not moving at all. The position of the Arctic high is not beneficial

[Kentspur]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

UKMO much more similar to ECM apart from with the heights to our south slightly higher over the Meditteranean, good to have a positive 12z suite (up to this stage/ semi semi reliable) except for GEM

Edited January 14, 2021 by Kentspur

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

850s are between -1 and -6C , roughly,  (horrendous, fantastic that's subjective.) Im just commenting on the run.

I'm nearer the coldest air than most.

In the last 'cold spell' under similar synoptics I reached +6c with uppers of -6c at 500 feet.

The long sea track from Northern Norway over the above average sea is reducing the uppers quickly.

The lack of sea ice not helping.

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Relieved to see ECM budge having been so stubborn for several runs.

Sizeable jump close to the UKMO-GFS group. It’s important because it shows that adjustments toward a better placed trough by the UK and slower trough progression out west of us both have some merit.

I know it's too far in FI... 

But surely this could still be poor? 

[winterof79]

Gentlemen we have closure

[ALL ABOARD]

Signs at 216 over the siberian vortex trying to head back west again. 

I still think that extra warming could have flushed down some additional westerlies just at the wrong time. 

Hopefully we see the atlantic lows slow down and the vortex back on the move to us.. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I know it's too far in FI... 

But surely this could still be poor? 

4 bloomin days that barrell trough has to our east... Is there anything realistic that could happen to get it to bugger off a little south east or stretch it's leg in situ.

[Hotspur62]

Another consideration is that if the next few runs show Trough East of UK then as per Alex deakin & met office thoughts we are in a better position for last 7 days of January to get a north/north easterly wind direction.Along with a Southerly jet(preferably another 100 miles further south) then chances of more widespread wintry hazards MAY arise.
 

Certainly a more positive  feel to the models and let’s hope we and the models can build some consistency and momentum going forward.As was shown today you don’t need massive negative uppers to get 6 inches of snow as Yorkshire,other parts of the North and Scotland proved today.Give me -6 uppers and DPs of 0/-1 and I would take my chances in the potential set up showing.

[Cloud 10]

Business as usual then at day 10.

 

[Weathizard]

A good ecm run if you like cold rain, unfortunately the pattern is really not moving between day 5 and 10, you end up in a literal rinse and repeat cycle until phasing stops for long enough that the low finally disrupts, which it does start too at day 10 but all the cold air is well away from us and flooding into the Atlantic again. Frustrating period of model watching for me, and rubbish weather on the ground to go with it

[Jason H]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3. Not bad. If that’s as far as it went many would be interested.

Sensible post.  Even those charts are in FI. Improved Operational's tonight for those hunting further winter weather. The ensembles looking better too. Interestometer up to a 6/10.

[nick sussex]

Another underwhelming ECM run with the troughing unable to clear se . We really wanted that troughing to flatten out and edge se .

Althought the day ten looks interesting from a NH perspective the pattern is too far north and more energy needs to disrupt into Southern Europe .

The best that can be said is its a slight improvement compared to some of the previous crud it dished out !

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Whilst still not overly inspiring for the U.K. It is still an improvement over past runs and only a few tweaks could allow cold air to dig further south into the UK and Europe with any incoming low tracking further south. One thing that has become apparent is we are less likely to see the Canadian trough cut away from the Arctic that could risk losing the Greenland high, so subtly shifting the -NAO a little further east (Greenland instead of the Hudson Bay on the previous run)