Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

[SLEETY]

Ecm still poor for the South but better further north, feels like we are just chasing shadows further south, and lack of posts seems to indicate that. 

[mountain shadow]

Where have all the proper Greenland highs disappeared too?

Seems we only have minimal height rises there?

 

[Vikos]

Is it just me or is the pendulum slowly, step-by-step swinging back in the world of synoptic weather models? 
I am just excited about the evening runs, also for those EC 00z scenarios...

[Chesil View]

Personally I don't think we're anywhere near finished with where the modelling may take us for later next week. To much chipping and changing to take anything much beyond Monday seriously at the moment.

[Gustywind]

Happy personally that the 0z runs are better than yesterday’s horror show! Still think ECM is blowing up the low too much in the mid range. Hopefully the 12s will show an improvement on yesterday also. Still a lot of uncertainty though over strength of Greenie ridge & exactly where it’s placed, think it was the GEM today that built it too far west & we ended up with a W neg NAO.

[Drifter]

10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Is it just me or is the pendulum slowly, step-by-step swinging back in the world of synoptic weather models? 
I am just excited about the evening runs, also for those EC 00z scenarios...

I have the opposite feeling. In fact at around about the 120hr mark, the Atlantic ridge is far less pronounced and looks in danger of disappearing altogether. 
It’s certainly a far weaker ridge than we we’re seeing a few days ago. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Drifter

[Vikos]

6 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I have the opposite feeling. In fact at around about the 120hr mark, the Atlantic ridge is far less pronounced and looks in danger of disappearing altogether. 
It’s certainly a far weaker ridge than we we’re seeing a few days ago. 

Could be. But I think that those ENS did a step back from very mild versions. 
maybe it isn’t the worst thing to see that ridge „gone“, maybe we get something else, something better? FI isn’t to far away these days...

[Man With Beard]

Isn't the problem here the Azores High, not what is happening further north. The N Atlantic ridge seems keen, the trough wants to drop from the north, but the high traveling from the Azores into Iberia keeps wanting to poke its nose in? Seems to me atm the effect of the SSW is to merely keep us from a full blown Euro high, not to radically alter the NH pattern. Though I'm surprised not to see better heights over the pole in general.

[pureasthedriven]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Remarkable northern hemisphere chart for late January

This from mid January 1940

 

What’s more remarkable is that that isn’t delivering any notably cold weather. Would like to know what the surface conditions were for that 1940 chart... 

[DanDorsetUK]

We see time and time again there is an algorithm for the morning runs through to the 18z. Rather than view them as downgrades from a previous evenings runs and avoid using such words it's a good idea to view them as scenarios. So for example...

0z compare with yesterday's 0z runs.

6z compare with yesterday's 6z

12z compare with yesterdays 12z

18z compare with yesterday's 18z

You will then get a much better analysis and avoid any morning disappointments based on a previous 18z. The following image sums this up nicely and how I feel models should be perceived based on consistent observations to an algorithm.

 

 

[Osbourne One-Nil]

....you're watching the Model Discussion Thread. 

[johnholmes]

22 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

We see time and time again there is an algorithm for the morning runs through to the 18z. Rather than view them as downgrades from a previous evenings runs and avoid using such words it's a good idea to view them as scenarios. So for example...

0z compare with yesterday's 0z runs.

6z compare with yesterday's 6z

12z compare with yesterdays 12z

18z compare with yesterday's 18z

You will then get a much better analysis and avoid any morning disappointments based on a previous 18z. The following image sums this up nicely and how I feel models should be perceived based on consistent observations to an algorithm.

 

 

My advice for years!

[pureasthedriven]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

All about perception I suppose. I wouldn't class 2c as notably cold though....

My point being...

As a rule, and especially in my location (albeit this is not about IMBY) to get falling and dare I say settling snow, the cold needs to be ‘notable’ - significantly below average. Not exceptional, but notable. 0-2c with precipitation and low dew points is unusual (increasingly so) and of note. What the other poster says about the ‘comparable’ 1940 chart is where I was headed. Synoptics very similar, markedly less cold. It took less to deliver snow historically than it does today, no question. 

[pureasthedriven]

4 minutes ago, Osbourne One-Nil said:

....you're watching the Model Discussion Thread. 

Yep apologies - was model related, just a very old one! 

[sebastiaan1973]

59 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Is it just me or is the pendulum slowly, step-by-step swinging back in the world of synoptic weather models? 
I am just excited about the evening runs, also for those EC 00z scenarios...

The latest EC plume for De Bilt shows little, 'real' cold. Seems to me, we have to wait for February.

[johnholmes]

the anomaly charts remain in the cold region and meridional in pattern

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Premiere Neige]

33 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

My point being...

As a rule, and especially in my location (albeit this is not about IMBY) to get falling and dare I say settling snow, the cold needs to be ‘notable’ - significantly below average. Not exceptional, but notable. 0-2c with precipitation and low dew points is unusual (increasingly so) and of note. What the other poster says about the ‘comparable’ 1940 chart is where I was headed. Synoptics very similar, markedly less cold. It took less to deliver snow historically than it does today, no question. 

True. But the models can be wrong even at relatively short notice. Not long ago the models were showing a warm up for this week. Today it's snowing and maximum predicted to be 1c and tomorrow a max of 0c (for my location). I think people are hanging their hats on model outcomes for 10+ days when FI is probably 3-4 days at the moment. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Premier Neige

[Methuselah]

Hardly the most inspiring set of GEFS temp ensembles , I've ever seen: plenty of opportunity for more of what we've been seeing, recently; so not much indication of either very cold or very mild conditions:

     

And, neither do the NH profiles seem to hold much promise:

    

    

Cold and dry, I can cope with; cold and snow, I can cope with; cold and wet, on the other hand, can go 'do one'!

[jason6347]

Was the ecm op an outlier at all?

[Gustywind]

28 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

My point being...

As a rule, and especially in my location (albeit this is not about IMBY) to get falling and dare I say settling snow, the cold needs to be ‘notable’ - significantly below average. Not exceptional, but notable. 0-2c with precipitation and low dew points is unusual (increasingly so) and of note. What the other poster says about the ‘comparable’ 1940 chart is where I was headed. Synoptics very similar, markedly less cold. It took less to deliver snow historically than it does today, no question. 

The Jan 1940 chart is much better, far stronger GHP exerting its influence south of Iceland even, supported perfectly by the Arctic High working with it. This years chart has a far weaker GHP, struggling to exert much of a pressure rise on Iceland & the Arctic High less supportive - pointing towards Siberia.

[snowblizzard]

4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Matt Hugo just stating that ECM should be binned feels it has been struggling in the past 2 weeks.

Very interesting stuff.Not sure where we go from there but I suppose the proof will be in the charts.

USA Forecasters have been dismissing and critical of ECM model output quite often recently!

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Is there a reason for him to “bin” it? Just don’t understand that statement.  If it was a clear outlier, I could understand.  The Det run has decent support with the ensembles (largest cluster).  There is also a cluster (decent for coldies) where the low is far shallower and to the east with a decent Atlantic ridge followed by what looks like a sliding low further west.

Sometimes you have an instinct that a run just isn’t really feasible, given everything else. (Even when it isn’t an obvious outlier)

im not sure that the 00z ec fits that criteria for me though 

it could be that the period beyond day 5 is the nwp trying to find its way to the Asian vortex and Canadian ridge strat picture. The current split having muddied the waters and we will soon be looking at the kind of charts we were several days ago for the period beyond the 25th. 

on the other hand ...

Edited January 14, 2021 by bluearmy

[Battleground Snow]

Icon 00z v 06z

Little bit more pressure around Greenland.

Not sure what to make of the 00z runs, seems chaotic. The only constant theme coming through atm is the Pacific high punching into the Arctic around day 8 and 9.

 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Scandinavian High.]

What’s the fuss about looking identical to yesterday’s met office long range forecast yesterday for next week..

Edited January 14, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[sparky1972]

6 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

What’s the fuss about looking identical to yesterday’s met office long range forecast yesterday for next week..

Thats good then, because it means we can lose this cold rain and have more slightly less cold rain as temps forecast to rise to 9/10c on tuesday, although not sure if any model output is showing that kind of a warm up yet.