Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    You have to laugh don't you?

    gfs-9-306.png?18

    Two days ago it was modelled as an Ice day

    gfs-9-354.png?18

    So what’s to say tomorrow it won’t show 3ft of lying snow!!

    Everything’s a bit bonkers at the minute with what is happening high up!! I’m just strapping myself in and enjoying the ride!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Simple - if it’s going to rain, I’d rather it was 13c than 3c - much cheaper on the heating.

    Our big hope now is that the phasing of the lows isn’t being modelled correctly. Because it’s that which is scuppering our cold chances.

     

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ECM ensembles not outstanding but better than this k mornings if memory serves.

    http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick

    When Exeter does an about turn in three consecutive updates, I don’t think we can have confidence anywhere. Be interesting to see what they say overnight because this evening’s runs don’t put much faith in their current narrative. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
    28 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

    minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

    don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

    This is so true. I've stopped looking at every run (granted, home schooling plays a part)  but it is only worth comparing 12z to12z or 18z to 18z, gives a much better analysis of what's going on.

     

    Anyway its bleaching it down here, has been a few times recently 😉 I'm off to enjoy that. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales

    Question ....why on earth do they insist on running the GFS etc 4 times a day ! Its consistency is just laughable.....or perhaps they just need to stick to T168 max Think I'm going to lobby for it.....save alot of people mental breakdowns every 6 hours ..think every 12 is more than enough for mental torment......

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.3b44dcc4b254e2edb5cd49e9057af300.png

    192h mean 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    40 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    As far as NH profile goes GFS is great at day 10 but what's the point?

    gfsnh-0-240.png?18

    When the models have proved so totally clueless about an Azores low just a few days away?

    Getting really PO with the output, it is no better than 10 years ago

    Agree, and the ensembles have been nigh on useless too. The issue being the minority runs can become the majority over the course of a suite or two.

    I've seen too many ensemble suites flip over the years. What looks like good agreement on one scenario can soon flip to solid agreement on the other.

    The ensemble suite is only as good as the starting data and subsequent algorithms and that's where the limitations with the NWP lie.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Several posts moved.

    If it's not model discussion, please post over here:

    🙂

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    ECM ensembles not outstanding but better than this k mornings if memory serves.

    http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

    worse IMO.

    image.thumb.png.136877aa38790f488388f48fe81d7e50.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    10 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

     I must say dreadful output all round today where we going to get the cold from I no idea how ever I will hold slight hope on the wording from Mets extended outlook few days ago one or two posters were saying the cold spell is nailed on going by today is out but it’s nowhere near. The talk of snow weekend and even tomorrow it’s not going to be for low lying areas it will only be for the usual suspects Scotland North East England and places like that. 😒😤 

    image.png

    While the UK Met Office Video is still promising for the UK, it was very much in their thoughts that things could swing  back to ejecting milder air out of the UK as well.

    I suppose as misguided as it is to say cold is ever nailed on, it would also be misguided to say winter is over based on today's output. However,  i think it's reasonable to suggest that a  deep cold spell is not looking very likely within the next 12 days unfortunately. Maybe into February our luck will change!

    Edited by Bricriu
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    Several posts moved.

    If it's not model discussion, please post over here:

    🙂

    Here’s a thing though. Look at that LP at the tip of Greenland and those Iberian heights in that screenshot. Just shows you what a proper Scandi high coupled with a proper Northem Italy low can do for you. All that talk about Greenie and Iberian heights, psstch... 😉

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

    Reasons to be cheerful.  Tomorrow’s forecast will be white for many, enjoy it whilst its there!

    the trend still says Down!  This ‘blip’ on Sunday / Monday is slowly being eroded and from the 20th they are clueless.  Don’t forget all those inputs being collected from weather balloons etc in an already shot NH....... there is no Atlantic force, and we have a good 6-10 weeks left yet, bearing in mind that March can be quite a snowy month.......

    D565244D-9F02-4BC6-A914-837D56B30D66.jpeg

    81576EFA-7E12-4089-9701-1EE0B8CAC293.jpeg

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock

    I think there is a chance all models could flip back to real cold at very short notice. Just not from the north the Greenland high/Atlantic ridge is not going to happen.

    Throughout this week the block to east has been middled further west on each run and still is even to extend that Saturday could be good for snow.

    A couple of the ensembles showing the low at 78hr not flattening the high over us as much with the low going off north east with the high amplifying behind to give us a north Easterly at day 5.

    We have seen a number of times in past potential Easterly implode at 96hrs. This could be a very rare occasion that we suddenly see In couple of days time models flip to showing Easterly at about 120hr seemingly out of know here.

     

    gens-19-1-156.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Model watching at present should come with a mass disclaimer..

    We have seen many sudden short term developments not evident even in 3-4 day model runs.. evidence reliable timeframes are exceptionally short at present. Indeed weather watching has become a nowcast event in the past couple of weeks. Take current conditions, only a day or so ago the models showed the front that moved through today developing a wave and pivot, prior to this it was expected to move swiftly into the north sea.

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    1 hour ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.c9135fb5eedecfbd5b564570f97e334d.png

    So close 

    Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

    Is there a correlation between charts with a low amount of isobars and low verification stats?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Is there a correlation between charts with a low amount of isobars and low verification stats?

    Not sure on that. But the col (area with no isobars) is unusually large. It is even more unusual when you see the tightness of the isobars throughout the remainder of the chart. Normally cols are larger in slack pressure gradient scenarios which this chart is not.

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    14 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    Some many conflicting signals all trying to impose themselves at the same time - so charts look unrealistic. Just look at that area without any isobars - stretches from N Spain to just south of Iceland and from the Isle of Man to about 500 miles of west coast of Ireland. Will never happen in reality

    Pin the donkey on the tail...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Models are in 100% state of flux.

    Yeh REFLUX... Stick to beeb forecasts or your own regional threads as its just now cast from here onwards. 

    Next week it gets more exiting and the charts are all over the shop ann nothing is set in stone. 

    I could say what I think is going to happen but I shall leave that in my regional group without all the doom and gloom and throwing toys out of the pram when you don't see it snowing in your area. Yeh we need to see it falling but we still got over a month and a half of winter to surprise us. 

    Enjoy the ❄️❄️❄️ up north. Lucky peeps 🌨️🌬️😉

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    56 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

    Question ....why on earth do they insist on running the GFS etc 4 times a day ! Its consistency is just laughable.....or perhaps they just need to stick to T168 max Think I'm going to lobby for it.....save alot of people mental breakdowns every 6 hours ..think every 12 is more than enough for mental torment......

    If you think GFS is laughable then check out the CFS, it goes out for 9 months on the Meteociel site

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Early daffodils anyone?

    Screenshot_20210113-225125.thumb.png.81e10b4cc460fafa3b2fb2d2155b17d2.png

    They’re already out in the a south West! 🙃

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Going to start up a new thread in a bit as, with the way things have been, a little refresh I think is needed. Has been quite an exhuasting few days Model-wise, especially with the SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) events bringing all sorts of twist and turns to the models.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...