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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Need to watch how this approaching low acts and behaves coming from the WSW. The cold block over the continent seems to be proving far more robust than what has been forecasted all week, so much so we are ending up with possible flash snow events, and for Saturday a potential 4th February 2012 type event. I’m discarding anything beyond 90hrs at the moment. 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

Same old story wait until the ENS are out 

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danthetan Enthusiast

danthetan

Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
Posted

The only good thing about the 18Z ......... It won't be the same tomorrow as usual.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Quite a way from a proper cold spell if we get here IMO, shows you that HP in the GH area doesn’t always lead to cold, it’s amazingly bad luck.

8EA57E24-0625-4ECE-AC0A-FFE69D2BEC14.png

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
 

but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

 

image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

 

BFTP

That second screenshot looks like Bigfoot has commandeered the northern hemisphere.   

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

image.thumb.png.92dcfedf4b901b9413fbd129055204f9.png

Para gives a cold flow , FI really is very early 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

At this point I’m going to concentrate on the next 4 days where there’s more snow potential than the Greenie ridge saga which is now beginning to grate ! 

 

 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, IDO said:

He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

Spot on. I know this has been said many times but tomorrow really is crucial. We have almost reached the tipping point. If things look similar on tomorrow's runs then there will be hardly any time to claw it back. However, there is a chance the models will flip back to something much more favourable tomorrow. Just enough time for that to happen still. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

If that verified (which of course it probably won’t), there would be little chance of salvaging things in the 10 day period.

The “nailed-on” cold predictions look way out now.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

image.thumb.png.92dcfedf4b901b9413fbd129055204f9.png

Para gives a cold flow , FI really is very early 

Looks dreadful just a few frames later, vortex all over the place but unfortunately not in a good way, energy spewing everywhere and because of that no depth of cold anywhere close by to tap into 

7DAD6B38-F3CF-4CE1-9F3E-D0797BDFD224.png

5C7B57C0-D2E3-4D8E-A6A3-F879F4092D9A.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Spot on. I know this has been said many times but tomorrow really is crucial. We have almost reached the tipping point. If things look similar on tomorrow's runs then there will be hardly any time to claw it back. However, there is a chance the models will flip back to something much more favourable tomorrow. Just enough time for that to happen still. 

Yes, agree, and we are still putting together post-d10 as we maybe see more strat interference? That is a good NH profile except for no UK cold:

d9>gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.f44847b2deeeb332eceb0b49408d4216.png

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

If that verified (which of course it probably won’t), there would be little chance of salvaging things in the 10 day period.

The “nailed-on” cold predictions look way out now.

Nothing is ever nailed on. Pretty sure that snow wasn’t on the cards this weekend until today. We are clueless at the moment, so are the pros, and probably why the TV forecasters have been very reluctant to talk about next weeks outlook! 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Not a great end to the day. And to think the 0z runs will likely be worse.

What are the 18 GFS ENS looking like? 

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Lol it was only 2 days ago people was saying locked into a cold spell coming and now it’s the opposite. I say again why do we look so far into the future and take the runs as gospel. There all over the shop. Normally I’d say look upto say 144 but as things stand with ssw and that only take note upto 90 hrs. Anything after is just for a trend. The trend as of today is cool but not cold enough for snow for many.

not what I wana see and say but that’s how it is in my eyes

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Both GFS and ECM with a mild Atlantic feed at day 6.

Hopefully we will see some modifications with that Atlantic Low! Once it spins up it is essentially forced below the Greenland block and prevented from moving east by the Scandi cold pool, leaving the UK mild.

spacer.png

spacer.png

UKMO is better, as we mentioned earlier. 

spacer.png

 

Certainly can't ignore the Operational's! Hopefully we will see some better outputs tomorrow on the EC and GFS 00zs for this time period.

Beyond this chances still there for a more prolonged colder spell.

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

They should be out soon.

Just wondering how you can write  the cold spell off after a few frames of the GFS OP ,  the OP could be the mildest in the pack or one of them with very little support 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

I’ll be interested to see the ensembles not for the attention seeking z list celeb  the Greenie ridge but whether we get a more slider scenario on Saturday .

The speed of the front is still open to change and also how much of an undercut can occur .

A lot of uncertainty just 3 days out , and we should bear in mind  what happened with tomorrow’s snow potential , the models underestimated that cold high to the east .

If the sodding Greenie ridge isn’t going to deliver then it would be good to squeeze out as much re snow chances for the UK  before then .

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted

Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

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