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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

    He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

    d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

    This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Need to watch how this approaching low acts and behaves coming from the WSW. The cold block over the continent seems to be proving far more robust than what has been forecasted all week, so much so we are ending up with possible flash snow events, and for Saturday a potential 4th February 2012 type event. I’m discarding anything beyond 90hrs at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    Same old story wait until the ENS are out 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    The only good thing about the 18Z ......... It won't be the same tomorrow as usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Can the para pull a rabbit out of the hat (don't count on it)? 

    gfsnh-0-168.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Quite a way from a proper cold spell if we get here IMO, shows you that HP in the GH area doesn’t always lead to cold, it’s amazingly bad luck.

    8EA57E24-0625-4ECE-AC0A-FFE69D2BEC14.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
    11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

    image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
     

    but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

     

    image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

     

    BFTP

    That second screenshot looks like Bigfoot has commandeered the northern hemisphere. 🙂  

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.92dcfedf4b901b9413fbd129055204f9.png

    Para gives a cold flow , FI really is very early 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

    image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
     

    but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

     

    image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

     

    BFTP

    Poor stuck in no mans land cold & wet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, IDO said:

    He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

    d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

    This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

    Spot on. I know this has been said many times but tomorrow really is crucial. We have almost reached the tipping point. If things look similar on tomorrow's runs then there will be hardly any time to claw it back. However, there is a chance the models will flip back to something much more favourable tomorrow. Just enough time for that to happen still. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, IDO said:

    He will need something stronger than sherry if he is going to watch the rest of the 18z!

    d7> gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.9895a3f088719b2dcdd34affdb92abfb.png

    This is where we have been headed today apart from the odd rogue run (gfs 12z). 

    If that verified (which of course it probably won’t), there would be little chance of salvaging things in the 10 day period.

    The “nailed-on” cold predictions look way out now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    image.thumb.png.92dcfedf4b901b9413fbd129055204f9.png

    Para gives a cold flow , FI really is very early 

    Looks dreadful just a few frames later, vortex all over the place but unfortunately not in a good way, energy spewing everywhere and because of that no depth of cold anywhere close by to tap into 

    7DAD6B38-F3CF-4CE1-9F3E-D0797BDFD224.png

    5C7B57C0-D2E3-4D8E-A6A3-F879F4092D9A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

    Spot on. I know this has been said many times but tomorrow really is crucial. We have almost reached the tipping point. If things look similar on tomorrow's runs then there will be hardly any time to claw it back. However, there is a chance the models will flip back to something much more favourable tomorrow. Just enough time for that to happen still. 

    Yes, agree, and we are still putting together post-d10 as we maybe see more strat interference? That is a good NH profile except for no UK cold:

    d9>gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.f44847b2deeeb332eceb0b49408d4216.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    As others have commented, the pacific ridge looks likely to stir the arctic pot in week two. We still don’t know where our current arctic ridge is being ejected ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Not a great end to the day. And to think the 0z runs will likely be worse.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

    If that verified (which of course it probably won’t), there would be little chance of salvaging things in the 10 day period.

    The “nailed-on” cold predictions look way out now.

    Nothing is ever nailed on. Pretty sure that snow wasn’t on the cards this weekend until today. We are clueless at the moment, so are the pros, and probably why the TV forecasters have been very reluctant to talk about next weeks outlook! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Not a great end to the day. And to think the 0z runs will likely be worse.

    What are the 18 GFS ENS looking like? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Lol it was only 2 days ago people was saying locked into a cold spell coming and now it’s the opposite. I say again why do we look so far into the future and take the runs as gospel. There all over the shop. Normally I’d say look upto say 144 but as things stand with ssw and that only take note upto 90 hrs. Anything after is just for a trend. The trend as of today is cool but not cold enough for snow for many.

    not what I wana see and say but that’s how it is in my eyes

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    image.thumb.png.004f32859a017597e56ba6b98d3816f4.png

    18Z might save itself 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    Just now, MJB said:

    What are the 18 GFS ENS looking like? 

    They should be out soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    Both GFS and ECM with a mild Atlantic feed at day 6.

    Hopefully we will see some modifications with that Atlantic Low! Once it spins up it is essentially forced below the Greenland block and prevented from moving east by the Scandi cold pool, leaving the UK mild.

    spacer.png

    spacer.png

    UKMO is better, as we mentioned earlier. 

    spacer.png

     

    Certainly can't ignore the Operational's! Hopefully we will see some better outputs tomorrow on the EC and GFS 00zs for this time period.

    Beyond this chances still there for a more prolonged colder spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    They should be out soon.

    Just wondering how you can write  the cold spell off after a few frames of the GFS OP ,  the OP could be the mildest in the pack or one of them with very little support 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I’ll be interested to see the ensembles not for the attention seeking z list celeb  the Greenie ridge but whether we get a more slider scenario on Saturday .

    The speed of the front is still open to change and also how much of an undercut can occur .

    A lot of uncertainty just 3 days out , and we should bear in mind  what happened with tomorrow’s snow potential , the models underestimated that cold high to the east .

    If the sodding Greenie ridge isn’t going to deliver then it would be good to squeeze out as much re snow chances for the UK  before then .

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    Why don’t people just focus on the snow chances for this week instead of focusing on FI. We know literally 3-5days if FI right now,

    minor warming under way and a split - models will get worse before they get better.

    don’t worry what they say for next week because it’ll change a lot.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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