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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Flake news Apprentice

Flake news

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, danm said:

Bit perplexed with some of the posts suggesting central/northern areas are primed and the south missing out. At this range, the overall synoptic pattern looks great but the micro details and specific placement of any battleground scenarios are nowhere near being resolved, let alone guaranteed. A few hundred miles either way on the macro, NH scale is miniscule. 

It's an understandable fatalism borne of many past experiences.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
15 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I partly figured it out before you answered, thanks anyway.

Where I am, its wetter still so Id add another 25 mm on the the Manc total.

Do remember how far out rainfall predictions can be in summer, nothing changes in winter! Also for it to snow an additional 7 or 8 other parameters need to fit as well.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, Bricriu said:

So if i understand you correctly, it all looks to be unfolding as per recent UK Met Office Long Range guidance; a brief potent cold spell, but it's unlikely to be a sustained one. So it could well be an ebbing  and flowing between milder and colder air, with some part of England as the boundary. That could mean ecstasy for some and heartache for others further south and west.

Sort of

I was only refering to the NOAA 500mb charts that only got out to two weeks, how things develop beyond that is still to be resolved.

Yes, currently with a mean Northwesterly id expect Ebbing and Flowing between the cold and milder  with the UK being the battleground as systems track southeastwards from our northwest.

If/when subsequent anomaly charts update to bring a more northerly component, then the chances of a sustained deep cold spell will be heightened.

Thats how i see it currently, i may be wrong, but im usually pretty much near the mark.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I remember the greatest E'ly "that we never had" in Feb' 2006. Completely disappeared at T36 - I'm still having counselling for it.

yep - i remember that - complete cross-model, ensemble agreement and then with two GFS runs, it was gone. Got a watered down version a couple of weeks later as I recall but by that time the days were longer and temps a bit higher so much less impact

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted
3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

So weather warnings out for 5-15cm above 150m and locally 30cm in northern england wednesday.

Who needs severe cold for snow haha!

During a “mild” week

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted
Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Nothing can be called at this stage, very very volatile model output, must wait until everything is <144h.

You said it was nailed on earlier? 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

You said it was nailed on earlier? 

Aye, my mistake was not defining "it". By "it" I was referring to a cut off Greenland high as a follow on from the continued debate. Not a very cold pattern for the UK. Confidence for that has increased, not quite nailed on though. 

Plus that was 6:30am after a brilliant ECM run..

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Is gfs delayed? I thought it started at half 3

Yes, looks like it's running a bit late, or at least the files are late. Can see the 00 hours one is trying to come in now, so hopefully it'll start up properly shortly. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Aye, my mistake was not defining "it". By "it" I was referring to a cut off Greenland high as a follow on from the continued debate. Not a very cold pattern for the UK. Confidence for that has increased, not quite nailed on though. 

Plus that was 6:30am after a brilliant ECM run..

Welcome to NW, ex-President Bill Clinton: it all depends upon how one defines the word 'it'?:drunk-emoji:

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andymusic Accomplished

andymusic

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel said:

Is gfs delayed? I thought it started at half 3

it's that good it doesn't want to show us how good lol

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Osbourne One-Nil Experienced

Osbourne One-Nil

Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Plus that was 6:30am after a brilliant ECM run..

Just because a run is brilliant doesn't make it less volatile though. 

Don't fall into the trap of trying to call something early for credit later if it comes off!

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Is gfs delayed? I thought it started at half 3

I think it saw how much aggro a poor ECM run caused last night and is avoiding making the same mistake.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
Just now, andymusic said:

it's that good it doesn't want to show us how good lol

Aye, it simply hasn't come to grips with 500cm of lying snow (all over the UK) yet!

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

ICON is so different from its last run - tells you all you need to know!

 

This is why all the.....its nailed on should be ignored and just continue watching the output until general consensus prevails over a few days and even then its not nailed on as we all know it could all flip at a toss of a coin 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

This is why all the.....its nailed on should be ignored and just continue watching the output until general consensus prevails over a few days and even then its not nailed on as we all know it could all flip at a toss of a coin 

Agreed - as I said, when it's showing cross-model at T48, I might call it then!

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Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

This is why all the.....its nailed on should be ignored and just continue watching the output until general consensus prevails over a few days and even then its not nailed on as we all know it could all flip at a toss of a coin 

Heads.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Agreed - as I said, when it's showing cross-model at T48, I might call it then!

Then I would join you

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, Djdazzle said:

Agreed - as I said, when it's showing cross-model at T48, I might call it then!

Cross model agreement at T48? That's optimistic!

The 15th seems to be the "tipping point", once that low phasing is resolved we'll either be heading into the freezer with a good Greenland block, or the pattern will collapse and the cold wont be able to get into the UK, there isn't really a middleground scenario for this one. 

The fun will probably continue for a couple more days yet..

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