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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Again, this run will be 50/50 from 120hrs onwards. Any model in my opinion is only as good as its last error! The last GFS run still moved it’s forecasted precipitation all over the place at less than 36 hours out. They’ve not got a clue, and have a tendency to lose the plot when it comes to unorthodox, non default patterns, such as a SSW event and a slight reversal in zonal setup! 

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    47 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Is it a good thing or a bad thing for cold🤔

    It's something to keep an eye on whether it happens we will need to wait and see as the models are continuing to bring different outcomes from run to run which will probably continue for some time until they fully understand the exact tropospheric response to the SSW but this tweet from yesterday is one possibility 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl

    Very little change on the gfs early on

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Icon really going for the snow Sat...

    F5F1C8B0-7B1B-42DC-A46D-EDD04E7D69C2.png

    Thats accumulative since +0 i assume majority shown there falls Tomorrow? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

    Fax looks fantastic for another snow event saturday!!can anyone provide an update from ukv for saturday?!!

    Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, MKN said:

    Thats accumulative since +0 i assume majority shown there falls Tomorrow? 

    This is up until tomorrow night...

    9FFF90C8-AFC1-4647-B2B2-CE8109BDAA55.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

    Not if you make a big snow man then put it under cover 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This is up until tomorrow night...

    9FFF90C8-AFC1-4647-B2B2-CE8109BDAA55.png

    Thats an upgrade on the 12z for tomorrow!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Trouble with Saturday is it will be a snow to rain event, whereas tomorrow is a rain to snow event, much rather have the latter. There is milder air behind Saturday's front, any lying snow will quickly be washed aside..

    Aperge has more of an undercut so not much rain on the back edge..

    1932ECF9-0198-4006-BB29-17EFF1FAD067.png

    B90A1704-8179-406F-B3CA-6980A36A0D26.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The gfs for tomorrow evening...

    gfs-2-24.thumb.png.3c84361c92ccd71ef88d6be9949e778b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    This is up until tomorrow night...

    9FFF90C8-AFC1-4647-B2B2-CE8109BDAA55.png

    The trouble with these charts is they don't take into account any probable interim thawing or the negative impact on accumulations during rain to snow (or snow to rain) events. These are best taken with a pinch of salt, even at this relatively close range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    As said yesterday expecting lots of flip flopping from models at present, so I am not commenting on them tonight, as I don't have much confidence in their output at a very short timescales, 72 hrs tops...

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

    Ominous at 126

    gfsnh-0-126.png

    Im getting the feeling we could end up with a much colder easterly when this is all sorted.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

    image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
     

    but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

     

    image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

    image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
     

    but the t126 18z....yes please 

    Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Didn’t mind the 12z at t132

    image.thumb.png.4d909179d511ad34c22f4c2ccd8bccc7.png
     

    but the 18z same timeframe ....yes please 

     

    image.thumb.png.73306f7d89da3b50507e3651e70eb630.png

     

    BFTP

    ? For cold by day 10 (ish) again? 

    🤷‍♂️ 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

    That's what I thought too

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    The ops have swayed towards a slight to moderate negative NAO in the 6 to 7 day period. This has had a knock on effect of delaying anything 'meaningfully' cold from arriving to our shores. Still some nice snow opportunities from the Midlands northwards starting as early as tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

    Agreed - doesn't look good to me 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFSp has the ridge hanging on by its fingernails

    gfsnh-0-132.png?18gfsnh-0-144.png?18

    We just about come out the right side by 144.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Am I missing something . It looks ghastly and worse than the 12hrs run . Or have you been on the sherry! Lol

    Exactly what I thought.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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