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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    UKMO/ Fax looks good for Eastern Areas sat. Like tomorrow’s event has shown - I wouldn’t bet against a further shift though 

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    Is there a  closer uk view of those accumulation charts?

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Interesting to to note on the GFS 12Z the op is on the milder side of the cold cluster between the 21st and 26th Jan.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    The main thing that’s caught my eye from today’s runs is the appearance of ridging from the Pacific into Arctic currently it’s shown last week of Jan but it’s mainly another thing to keep an eye on in future runs 3B8DF4CE-0260-41C4-8014-7B5D1B8DD5CB.thumb.jpeg.52812424a50dc8a6a85f4384d5bed9fa.jpeg22830664-2272-4516-9CA7-0087272FC95A.thumb.jpeg.09215fc0ab509423656c2e76e8bd7c66.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM D8 mean - It's very difficult to call whether this chart would result in wintry weather just for the north, or wintry weather for all. In many ways, we are no further forward than we were before last weekend. It's on the cusp of mild or cold. And with an SSW in the mix, plenty of spanners available in either direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    And looking ahead to D10-D15, just more of the same really. In the big picture, the ECM ensembles prefer a block of some sort to the NW, but also some pulsing of the Azores High towards Iberia. This results in a steep temperature gradient across Northern Europe, with many ensembles bringing this dividing line south far enough for a true winter burst, but others pushing winds from the SW across southern areas either temporarily or permanently. In summary, the charts look tilted towards a cold outcome in FI, but struggling to keep the Azores/Iberian High far enough to the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean gradually trends colder longer term following a less cold blip...Overall, there’s still plenty for coldies to be encouraged about, especially following that stunning Gfs 12z op...fingers crossed that the best of this winter is still ahead of us!!😜

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    🤞 🥶 ❄️ 🛷 🎿  

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Horrible stagnant pattern if you ask me, I’d have taken the U.K. high over this to be honest, not trying to be overly negative but it’s a dogs dinner compared to the fine 3 course cuisine we were offered a few days ago

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    Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
    33 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    The main thing that’s caught my eye from today’s runs is the appearance of ridging from the Pacific into Arctic currently it’s shown last week of Jan but it’s mainly another thing to keep an eye on in future runs 3B8DF4CE-0260-41C4-8014-7B5D1B8DD5CB.thumb.jpeg.52812424a50dc8a6a85f4384d5bed9fa.jpeg22830664-2272-4516-9CA7-0087272FC95A.thumb.jpeg.09215fc0ab509423656c2e76e8bd7c66.jpeg

    Is it a good thing or a bad thing for cold🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    What is it with the algorithms on these models for working out snow, i used to rate the Euro4, don't know if they have done anything to it but for the last few years it is nearly as bad as the GFS snow charts on meteociel and the ECM ones on that french site, Are places as far West as Liverpool really going to see lying snow tomorrow????

     

     

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    Thats another thing that can cause angst on here when things go wrong, the fact that we are always promised far more than the charts in reality would ever deliver even in the unlikely event of the synoptic FI charts verifying.

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    5 hours ago, Paul said:

    Keep an eye out for the 15z as we've made a change to our prec type algorithm on there which'll come into effect then (the prec type isn't a direct data feed from the UKV, it takes various data params from it and then our algorithm takes over to produce the output). The reason for the change is that in this type of situation we felt that the snow was a bit underdone in places, so we've put a correction in. 

    For those expecting it to go nuts and put snow everywhere, that's not going to happen I'm afraid but there will likely be some more pink on there than there is right now (unless the raw data on the 15z has a massive change of direction of course!). 

    Just a head up Paul, not sure if you've realised but the UKV is more or less 2 hours late for its 15z than normal. Completely understandable if the changes made have led to a delay, but just thought I'd let you know!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    15 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    EC-plume De Bilt. No serious chance for significant cold weather 😕

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    Only good enough for hilly regions from the midlands north.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Just a head up Paul, not sure if you've realised but the UKV is more or less 2 hours late for its 15z than normal. Completely understandable if the changes made have led to a delay, but just thought I'd let you know!

    "Issues" Unfortunately. Not our end, as far as I know.  I've only just caught up anyway, but there's unlikely to be an 18Z either by the sounds of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    24 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    EC-plume De Bilt. No serious chance for significant cold weather 😕

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    Although the De-Blit ensembles can be very useful, the current set up, although highly volatile, is trending towards a battle ground between the cold from the north/north east and milder Atlantic air over the UK. A reasonable consequence of this, as the cold airmass is not coming from the east (presently) is that the Dutch ensembles will have little to no bearing on the UK pattern. For now at least.

     

    EDIT... I have just realised you actually live in Holland lol. So my comments are related to the UK.

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
    5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Although the De-Blit ensembles can be very useful, the current set up, although highly volatile, is trending towards a battle ground between the cold from the north/north east and milder Atlantic air over the UK. A reasonable consequence of this, as the cold airmass is not coming from the east (presently) is that the Dutch ensembles will have little to no bearing on the UK pattern. For now at least.

     

    EDIT... I have just realised you actually live in Holland lol. So my comments are related to the UK.

    Thanks for your comment. Intresting that the colder air from the northeast can't reach the Netherlands and perhaps (?) not the south(east) of England?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    What is it with the algorithms on these models for working out snow, i used to rate the Euro4, don't know if they have done anything to it but for the last few years it is nearly as bad as the GFS snow charts on meteociel and the ECM ones on that french site, Are places as far West as Liverpool really going to see lying snow tomorrow????

     

     

    image.thumb.png.f137339aab99a4b5d14fe95b78cf36cd.png

    image.thumb.png.161fa686734eca2ca381d45ff45dfac5.png

    Thats another thing that can cause angst on here when things go wrong, the fact that we are always promised far more than the charts in reality would ever deliver even in the unlikely event of the synoptic FI charts verifying.

    EURO4 seems all over the place these days, don't know why. I'm rating AROME this winter so far. To be fair it isn't wildly different but emphasises the greater risk to high ground

    image.thumb.png.63971a7a69550bea6c1e78a3c3f9b6fd.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Not a bad set of ens from the 12Z...And just to give a little heads up to those who don't know...The 10 day trend with Alex deacon is well worth a look..really well explained details about the SSW..And next week looks as it could be interesting to say the least folks.

    A very good evening to you.

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    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON T120 v 12z at T126:

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    18z keeps the low west of Ireland separate.  This is what the models are getting wrong the further into the run, there is no driver to big up bowling ball lows, they are doing it because they are losing the plot.  FI very early here and well before T120, as the ICON run shows.  

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Features of some model runs, such as the ECM 12z that would be very unusual events:

    • A cut-off low maintaining high intensity & near-circular structure for 4 days in a row (ECM & GFS 12z runs)
    • A sub-970 mb low right underneath a stationary trough, where there's usually insufficient ventilation aloft for such a deep system (ECM & GFS(P) 12z runs)
    • A prolonged undercut (by the polar jet stream) of a wedge of high pressure (ECM & GEM & GFS(P) 12z runs)

    This list sure makes the ECM run seem improbable on the face of it. I'd sure feel like we had some really hard luck if it was entirely near to the mark.

    I think the prolonged undercut irks me most - it's rare that we go so long without something buckling the polar jet stream at least a little - and that's probably all that's needed to join a ridge to the cut-off high. This being why we rarely see more than brief impacts from cut-off highs whether they be in our favour or not. An exception being if you have a cut-off high connected to a stratosphere-driven -AO circulation and driving its own reverse zonal flow that resists mid-latitude connections... but this doesn't look to be the case mid-late next week.

    Glad someone else thinks the models have lost the plot!  I certainly do, FI is T72 at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Glad someone else thinks the models have lost the plot!  I certainly do, FI is T72 at the moment.

    Seems like chaos theory gone mad at the moment.

    We really have no clue what the next run will produce.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread

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