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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?


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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    46 minutes ago, andymusic said:

    latest harmonie for thursday

    image.thumb.png.da90a5d8ac97be1804f1d59bd7f9c36f.png

    Fantastic! Met office under playing the embedded cold and evaporative cooling in my opinion

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    Imagine throwing your toys out of the pram when you've got an EPS mean like this. Better than anything we've seen since 2018. Seriously, some of you need to temper your expectations. Not ev

    Hmmm. Where to start. 1. Modelled uppers are likely to drop nearer the time, but -8 is cold and for many not marginal. Rubbish? How many recent winters have you followed! 2. We are very defi

    Overall, I'd be happy with all these model runs, who really wants to see perfect charts beyond about day 6 or 7, those can only downgrade. Reasonable prospects for cold and some snow, with realistic p

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Actually scrap that are take a P14 . Look at that ūüėć

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    Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
    16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    But I’m more optimistic than this time yesterday.

    How were you this time last year? Currently great model watching. Exciting times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    15 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    This is going to be a nightmare for the Met to predict. Trend today has been to shift it south and west. Tomorrow it will end up in Wales lol.

    I think the met are right with the current warnings. The other areas need the colder air to push back quicker which is whats happening now 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    I think the met are right with the current warnings. The other areas need the colder air to push back quicker which is whats happening now 

    The flip side though is that it will probably kill the front quicker.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

    Well, whilst the GFSP was pretty awful early on, it has gone on to produce this at day 11 - the majority of the PV once again moved away from it's normal winter home.  This would potentially produce something decent for the UK a day or so later.  

    image.thumb.png.5457b3f96891cde95aa48b5bd76b280f.png

    We're seeing really chaotic charts once again, FI firmly at day 4/5, everything else is for entertainment only (and it's certainly is entertaining)

     

    Just looks like a big mess to me, it'll look different for sure tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    There are¬†some insane runs in the GEFS. Here‚Äôs a few in FI . Great to see and hope it continues ūüĎć

    D4AC2A45-F3AB-4501-9F04-0D5E6C5D9C52.png

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    262350DD-5966-4BEA-AB37-0134553F762B.png

    59B4AD87-D791-4BD4-B61D-EBCC0AF2FC23.png

    0EC9C8AD-0267-4E3A-BBE9-F605BBDDE897.png

    D24A48DF-4766-49EA-8960-1EADB38D39CA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    The flip side though is that it will probably kill the front quicker.

    Yeah thats also true. I think if your north of birmingham and as far east as Sheffield your going to be okay though

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Mean at 216. West based bla bla, uppers etc etc, low res we know we know...

    I’d take it! 
     

    image.thumb.png.39ce66f14ac827434c455749a7ab963f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    46 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    i know this is a pretty pointless post, but if this landed at T384 on GFS 18z, most of you would go crazy:

    46EB6D36-DE94-4928-9AA3-FF43F7466E13.thumb.png.7fdd0e031693a53a9ef4b669a3dea560.pngBFA6904D-AB2A-4BCF-B2CB-5B5916A29B69.thumb.png.c39251968d19b3da5c65be47177d0725.png

    Interestingly the agonised cat face is present on both charts.   That must mean something is brewing...

    That aint just any old cat....There be the Snow  Leopard..eyes white

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Can only see to T60 but a little shuffle south and west again from ECM 18z to earlier 12z trend being maintained. 

    4BEB1378-B7B7-4A46-8CD7-0D69D7CB435A.thumb.png.ca8486b3af2249bc23d71dc4c2a4ae33.png>53AD14E0-8EC7-4B05-B996-AD319A0438BA.thumb.png.9a6e58bda5fc35802969382a6cd7b9f9.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    Glad to see that GFS 18Z showed improvements right in the areas of concern.

    GEFS P7 at 240h shows why some of us are cautious about the location of the Greenland High. More Westerlies at 240, and a small ridge in Eastern Europe thrown up, blocking Russian cold.

    GFS Op at 240h has the far better solution, with better heights to the East of Greenland and immediately you see a better flow of cold through Scandinavia and more fuel for the Greenland High to become a sustained feature afterwards.

    GEFS 7-240 12jan18.png

    GFS-240 12jan18.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Icon 0z already significantly colder in the east at just 2¬†days away vs 18z. 0c Isotherm reaching slightly further south west into Northern Spain, positive start to the day, I best get some sleep see you for the 12z runsūüėÉ

    icon-1-57.png

    icon-1-63.png

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Quite a shift west on icon for Thursday  front really struggling 

    iconeu_uk1-1-47-0.png

    iconeu_uk1-1-41-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Arp  struggling also  brings snow line further south and west 

    arpege-1-40-0.png

    arpege-1-34-0.png

     

    arpege-45-46-0.png

    Edited by weirpig
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    UKMO passes first test, no phasing.

    But slow with the ridge and looks quite different from yesterdays output so it is struggling and not to be trusted

    UN120-21.GIF?13-05UN144-21.GIF

    GFS for 120 so I take it back. Good agreement there.

    gfsnh-0-120.png

    2nd trough phases UKMO not good 144 really with those Iberian heights.

    UN144-21.GIF?13-05

    GFS 144 even worse.

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    Should still eeek out cold from here but slower and harder tog et the cold furthr S

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    UKMO is a bit uninspiring..

    Is EC leading us up the garden path here?

    UKMO just isn't playing ball.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

    Don't believe we will get a decent prolonged cold spell until ukmo on board. This morning it isn't. Hopefully a better ECM later.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    UKMO passes first test, no phasing.

    But slow with the ridge and looks quite different from yesterdays output so it is struggling and not to be trusted

    UN120-21.GIF?13-05UN144-21.GIF

    GFS for 120 so I take it back. Good agreement there.

    gfsnh-0-120.png

    2nd trough phases UKMO not good 144 really with those Iberian heights.

    UN144-21.GIF?13-05

    GFS 144 even worse.

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    Should still eeek out cold from here but slower and harder tog et the cold furthr S

    UKMO looks far worse to me at 144.

    Iberian heights stronger...

    image.thumb.png.3c75b65ef2030d3b01b55a358194881e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

    Don't believe we will get a decent prolonged cold spell until ukmo on board. This morning it isn't. Hopefully a better ECM later.

    It's on board with the amplification & ultimately this would lead to cold eventually, however it's expansion of the Azores high would delay this by a few more days, as well as lead to increased mixing over the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

     

    GFS meanwhile gets wild 

    gfs-0-174.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    Classic west based negative NAO here. Infact gets a value of >50 which is a strong westerly based -NAO. Nonetheless, the cold arrival in the UK is still likely here eventually.

    image.thumb.png.76e77b9c735db743fb009ef0e47f6d6f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton

    We're facing positional upgrades for the snow event tomorrow, Arpege, ICON & GFSP all circa 100 miles south west with strong evaporational cooling combined with a wedge of colder air providing conducive conditions for a fairly wide area over the central North & East Midlands, Northern England & extending towards the home counties.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton
  • Location: Buxton
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Is EC leading us up the garden path here?

    UKMO just isn't playing ball.

    Yes, it is. However, all is not lost as there would eventually be a southerly tracking jet with a sign for slight Greenland heights at day 7 to 9. This could be a moderately cold & highly snowy pattern.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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