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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Gadje Enthusiast

Gadje

Posted
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
  • Location: Tweeddale 145m
Posted
16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

But I’m more optimistic than this time yesterday.

How were you this time last year? Currently great model watching. Exciting times.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
15 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

This is going to be a nightmare for the Met to predict. Trend today has been to shift it south and west. Tomorrow it will end up in Wales lol.

I think the met are right with the current warnings. The other areas need the colder air to push back quicker which is whats happening now 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I think the met are right with the current warnings. The other areas need the colder air to push back quicker which is whats happening now 

The flip side though is that it will probably kill the front quicker.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Well, whilst the GFSP was pretty awful early on, it has gone on to produce this at day 11 - the majority of the PV once again moved away from it's normal winter home.  This would potentially produce something decent for the UK a day or so later.  

image.thumb.png.5457b3f96891cde95aa48b5bd76b280f.png

We're seeing really chaotic charts once again, FI firmly at day 4/5, everything else is for entertainment only (and it's certainly is entertaining)

 

Just looks like a big mess to me, it'll look different for sure tomorrow.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

There are some insane runs in the GEFS. Here’s a few in FI . Great to see and hope it continues

D4AC2A45-F3AB-4501-9F04-0D5E6C5D9C52.png

0891F058-C0C6-4CB6-ADAA-91F79A2B7738.png

262350DD-5966-4BEA-AB37-0134553F762B.png

59B4AD87-D791-4BD4-B61D-EBCC0AF2FC23.png

0EC9C8AD-0267-4E3A-BBE9-F605BBDDE897.png

D24A48DF-4766-49EA-8960-1EADB38D39CA.png

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The flip side though is that it will probably kill the front quicker.

Yeah thats also true. I think if your north of birmingham and as far east as Sheffield your going to be okay though

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

Mean at 216. West based bla bla, uppers etc etc, low res we know we know...

I’d take it! 
 

image.thumb.png.39ce66f14ac827434c455749a7ab963f.png

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Cryosphere. Apprentice

Cryosphere.

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
46 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

i know this is a pretty pointless post, but if this landed at T384 on GFS 18z, most of you would go crazy:

46EB6D36-DE94-4928-9AA3-FF43F7466E13.thumb.png.7fdd0e031693a53a9ef4b669a3dea560.pngBFA6904D-AB2A-4BCF-B2CB-5B5916A29B69.thumb.png.c39251968d19b3da5c65be47177d0725.png

Interestingly the agonised cat face is present on both charts.   That must mean something is brewing...

That aint just any old cat....There be the Snow  Leopard..eyes white

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Can only see to T60 but a little shuffle south and west again from ECM 18z to earlier 12z trend being maintained. 

4BEB1378-B7B7-4A46-8CD7-0D69D7CB435A.thumb.png.ca8486b3af2249bc23d71dc4c2a4ae33.png>53AD14E0-8EC7-4B05-B996-AD319A0438BA.thumb.png.9a6e58bda5fc35802969382a6cd7b9f9.png

 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

Glad to see that GFS 18Z showed improvements right in the areas of concern.

GEFS P7 at 240h shows why some of us are cautious about the location of the Greenland High. More Westerlies at 240, and a small ridge in Eastern Europe thrown up, blocking Russian cold.

GFS Op at 240h has the far better solution, with better heights to the East of Greenland and immediately you see a better flow of cold through Scandinavia and more fuel for the Greenland High to become a sustained feature afterwards.

GEFS 7-240 12jan18.png

GFS-240 12jan18.png

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

Icon 0z already significantly colder in the east at just 2 days away vs 18z. 0c Isotherm reaching slightly further south west into Northern Spain, positive start to the day, I best get some sleep see you for the 12z runs

icon-1-57.png

icon-1-63.png

Edited by Kentspur
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

UKMO passes first test, no phasing.

But slow with the ridge and looks quite different from yesterdays output so it is struggling and not to be trusted

UN120-21.GIF?13-05UN144-21.GIF

GFS for 120 so I take it back. Good agreement there.

gfsnh-0-120.png

2nd trough phases UKMO not good 144 really with those Iberian heights.

UN144-21.GIF?13-05

GFS 144 even worse.

gfsnh-0-144.png

Should still eeek out cold from here but slower and harder tog et the cold furthr S

Edited by Mucka
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Continental Climate Aficionado

Continental Climate

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Don't believe we will get a decent prolonged cold spell until ukmo on board. This morning it isn't. Hopefully a better ECM later.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO passes first test, no phasing.

But slow with the ridge and looks quite different from yesterdays output so it is struggling and not to be trusted

UN120-21.GIF?13-05UN144-21.GIF

GFS for 120 so I take it back. Good agreement there.

gfsnh-0-120.png

2nd trough phases UKMO not good 144 really with those Iberian heights.

UN144-21.GIF?13-05

GFS 144 even worse.

gfsnh-0-144.png

Should still eeek out cold from here but slower and harder tog et the cold furthr S

UKMO looks far worse to me at 144.

Iberian heights stronger...

image.thumb.png.3c75b65ef2030d3b01b55a358194881e.png

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Don't believe we will get a decent prolonged cold spell until ukmo on board. This morning it isn't. Hopefully a better ECM later.

It's on board with the amplification & ultimately this would lead to cold eventually, however it's expansion of the Azores high would delay this by a few more days, as well as lead to increased mixing over the UK.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

 

GFS meanwhile gets wild 

gfs-0-174.png

Edited by Mucka
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted

We're facing positional upgrades for the snow event tomorrow, Arpege, ICON & GFSP all circa 100 miles south west with strong evaporational cooling combined with a wedge of colder air providing conducive conditions for a fairly wide area over the central North & East Midlands, Northern England & extending towards the home counties.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is EC leading us up the garden path here?

UKMO just isn't playing ball.

Yes, it is. However, all is not lost as there would eventually be a southerly tracking jet with a sign for slight Greenland heights at day 7 to 9. This could be a moderately cold & highly snowy pattern.

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